Bitcoin Forum
December 03, 2016, 07:47:03 PM *
News: Latest stable version of Bitcoin Core: 0.13.1  [Torrent].
 
   Home   Help Search Donate Login Register  
Pages: « 1 [2]  All
  Print  
Author Topic: Will Bitcoin ever drop down below 2 USD?  (Read 5654 times)
fabianhjr
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 322


Do The Evolution


View Profile
May 11, 2011, 11:27:08 AM
 #21

Now that is interesting, thanks for the graph.
A think you must consider, does the thash/sec affects the exchange or does the exchange affect the thash/sec?

1480794423
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1480794423

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1480794423
Reply with quote  #2

1480794423
Report to moderator
1480794423
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1480794423

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1480794423
Reply with quote  #2

1480794423
Report to moderator
Advertised sites are not endorsed by the Bitcoin Forum. They may be unsafe, untrustworthy, or illegal in your jurisdiction. Advertise here.
Enky1974
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 250



View Profile
May 11, 2011, 11:51:41 AM
 #22

Now that is interesting, thanks for the graph.
A think you must consider, does the thash/sec affects the exchange or does the exchange affect the thash/sec?
I dont know:) probably it's a self referential system with a mutual interaction beetween these 2 aspects (speed and price) ; speed influence prices that then influence network speed and so on trying to find an equilibrium, in the meanwhile they oscillate.

__________________________________
My Blog at http://btctrading.wordpress.com/ | « O Fortuna,velut Luna statu variabilis, semper crescis aut decrescis »
Third Way
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 238



View Profile
May 11, 2011, 02:09:16 PM
 #23

Who's buying all these BitCoins?

blease resbond -> 1BYJKxpntNn6TZbM5M5CWkEb8vr8vDcBrr
Enky1974
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 250



View Profile
May 11, 2011, 02:13:03 PM
 #24

Who's buying all these BitCoins?
Maybe long term investors.

__________________________________
My Blog at http://btctrading.wordpress.com/ | « O Fortuna,velut Luna statu variabilis, semper crescis aut decrescis »
bitcoinBull
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 826


rippleFanatic


View Profile
May 11, 2011, 02:16:12 PM
 #25

This might help:

I found, playing with statistica 7 by statsoft, a nice relation using instead of difficulty the network speed in terahash/sec to price btc/usd ratio.
The formula is:
btc/usd ratio=-.4621+exp(-.56571+(1.50987)*networkspeed)
where networkspeed it's intended in terahash/sec.
Example; actual speed it's 1.385 (from http://bitcoinwatch.com/)

so

fair price = -.4621+exp(-.56571+(1.50987)*1.385) = 4.13 $/BTC
the tolerance of the exponential fitness it's around +/- 1 btc

EDIT: btc/usd ratio=-.25882+exp(-.80633+(1.65207)*networkspeed) this formula is better and use last 150 days or "bitcoin GPU-era"
if network speed will drop to 1 TH we will have 2.07 $/BTC as fair price.


this is the regression fit chart
observe vs regression



Very nice! 

I'd like to put a copy of this in my difficulty vs. price thread, if you don't mind.

College of Bucking Bulls Knowledge
Enky1974
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 250



View Profile
May 11, 2011, 02:26:54 PM
 #26

Very nice! 

I'd like to put a copy of this in my difficulty vs. price thread, if you don't mind.
Sure, maybe try to replicate my results to see if they are the same.

__________________________________
My Blog at http://btctrading.wordpress.com/ | « O Fortuna,velut Luna statu variabilis, semper crescis aut decrescis »
Enky1974
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 250



View Profile
May 14, 2011, 02:27:14 PM
 #27

I've noticed that the networkspeed increased above 1.8 Th/sec

from http://bitcoinwatch.com/
Network Hashrate Gigahashs/s 1827.41

using the formula i discovered few days ago:
btc/usd ratio=-.25882+exp(-.80633+(1.65207)*networkspeed in terahash/sec)
btc/usd ratio=-.25882+exp(-.80633+(1.65207)*1.82741) =~8.88$ in line with actual mtgox quote of 8.72

i still have to compute the formula for upper and lower 95% confidence level
cheers

__________________________________
My Blog at http://btctrading.wordpress.com/ | « O Fortuna,velut Luna statu variabilis, semper crescis aut decrescis »
iya
Member
**
Offline Offline

Activity: 81


View Profile
May 14, 2011, 05:06:46 PM
 #28

i still have to compute the formula for upper and lower 95% confidence level
Lol, remember this depends entirely on your argument being sound. Think of the recent CDO pricing disaster.

Here's my 2 bitcents:
The influx of new users drives the exchange rate.
The exchange rate drives the mining power, with some delay.
For 2 Th/sec we currently need about 1MW electricity. With these costs, the system cannot grow on speculation alone, for very long.
When the user growth slows, current miners will slowly bring down the prices, even if no early adopters cash out.
From the demand side, there's still lots of growth potential.
$10/BTC is psychological resistance and we'll probably retest the lower single digits. If $20 is breached, we could see $100 at the end of the year.
Maybe Bitcoin really does become as big as PayPal, then these prices are justified, but imho the chances are overestimated.
Enky1974
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 250



View Profile
May 14, 2011, 06:04:40 PM
 #29

i still have to compute the formula for upper and lower 95% confidence level
Lol, remember this depends entirely on your argument being sound. Think of the recent CDO pricing disaster.

Here's my 2 bitcents:
The influx of new users drives the exchange rate.
The exchange rate drives the mining power, with some delay.
For 2 Th/sec we currently need about 1MW electricity. With these costs, the system cannot grow on speculation alone, for very long.
When the user growth slows, current miners will slowly bring down the prices, even if no early adopters cash out.
From the demand side, there's still lots of growth potential.
$10/BTC is psychological resistance and we'll probably retest the lower single digits. If $20 is breached, we could see $100 at the end of the year.
Maybe Bitcoin really does become as big as PayPal, then these prices are justified, but imho the chances are overestimated.

Good analysis  , indeed if a real economy based on btc doesnt grow the entire toy can collapse very fast.
Users stop to grow, miners then slowly push prices down, other miners stop to mine because prices go down, with less miners difficulty goes down, with lower difficulty miners earn more bitcoins and then dump the market, and so on....

__________________________________
My Blog at http://btctrading.wordpress.com/ | « O Fortuna,velut Luna statu variabilis, semper crescis aut decrescis »
Pages: « 1 [2]  All
  Print  
 
Jump to:  

Sponsored by , a Bitcoin-accepting VPN.
Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2006-2009, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!