Bitcoin Forum
December 09, 2016, 07:28:55 PM *
News: Latest stable version of Bitcoin Core: 0.13.1  [Torrent].
 
   Home   Help Search Donate Login Register  
Pages: [1] 2 »  All
  Print  
Author Topic: Will Bitcoin ever drop down below 2 USD?  (Read 5659 times)
djex
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 196


View Profile
April 30, 2011, 09:30:40 PM
 #1

I've noticed in the past week the price for 1 BTC to USD has really jumped and seems to keep getting higher.

Will the price for 1 BTC ever go below 2 USD again?

Smiley  : 1LbvSEJwtQZKLSQQVYxQJes8YneQk2yhE3
1481311735
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1481311735

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1481311735
Reply with quote  #2

1481311735
Report to moderator
1481311735
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1481311735

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1481311735
Reply with quote  #2

1481311735
Report to moderator
1481311735
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1481311735

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1481311735
Reply with quote  #2

1481311735
Report to moderator
Advertised sites are not endorsed by the Bitcoin Forum. They may be unsafe, untrustworthy, or illegal in your jurisdiction. Advertise here.
1481311735
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1481311735

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1481311735
Reply with quote  #2

1481311735
Report to moderator
1481311735
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1481311735

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1481311735
Reply with quote  #2

1481311735
Report to moderator
Stephen Gornick
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2002



View Profile
April 30, 2011, 10:06:12 PM
 #2

Here is the price shown in log scale:
 - http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg360zczsg2010-08-18zeg2011-05-01zlztgSzm1g10zm2g25

Shortly after I first learned of Bitcoin it traded at $0.18 BTC on Mt. Gox, down from its high of $0.50.  That's a 64% drop from the high.

Anything can happen.  Same thing with Silver at near $50.  Crazy stuff happening everywhere.

SmokeTooMuch
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 873


View Profile
April 30, 2011, 11:06:04 PM
 #3

Will the price for 1 BTC ever go below 2 USD again?

Most likely.

Date Registered: 2009-12-10 | I'm using GPG, pm me for my public key. | Bitcoin on Reddit: https://www.reddit.com/r/btc
You like what I'm doing? Why don't you send me a coin: 17Pj8jpUgY6qTaKgiopL5U48zxU4rTrkuB
demonofelru
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 238



View Profile
May 01, 2011, 01:22:41 AM
 #4

I personally think it will especially with mtgox being down like now.  I hope it does, be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful

Names do not matter; however, if you insist...id...
RTJakarta
Newbie
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 12


View Profile
May 01, 2011, 01:24:03 AM
 #5

It's likely, but I sure hope not.
tomcollins
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 182


View Profile
May 01, 2011, 01:24:56 AM
 #6

I personally think it will especially with mtgox being down like now.  I hope it does, be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful

Are others greedy or fearful now?
demonofelru
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 238



View Profile
May 01, 2011, 01:30:49 AM
 #7

I personally think it will especially with mtgox being down like now.  I hope it does, be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful

Are others greedy or fearful now?

It shot up like 400% in a couple weeks so greedy IMO we'll have to wait and see if the oracle's words hold up.

Names do not matter; however, if you insist...id...
Gaius
Newbie
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 3



View Profile
May 02, 2011, 04:37:48 AM
 #8

I hope so. It's messed up all things that are priced on the assumption of a near-to-1:1 ratio.
TurboK
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 137



View Profile
May 02, 2011, 05:03:10 AM
 #9

Nothing is impossible, but I suspect if the people here could predict the future, they'd just buy a few lottery tickets instead.

12zJNWtM2HknS2EPLkT9QPSuSq1576aKx7

Tradehill viral bullshit code: TH-R114411
m4rkiz
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 170


View Profile
May 02, 2011, 10:04:07 PM
 #10

Will the price for 1 BTC ever go below 2 USD again?

most likely, it is safe to assume that until btc is widely recognized price will be roughly double of price of electricity that you need to generate it

with every 'non mining' person that want to get some (to use or hoard) this margin will be slightly bigger, but for now there is no reason for it to stay
over 2 usd and it will drop as soon as someone will stop buying large quantities as there is plenty of persons that have dozens of thousands or more of btc from less than cent time

they selling btc slowly as they don't want to price falling and end with worthless btcs but there is again more supply than demand at the moment (today at least)

it will take a week or so, but if only big buyer is gone (all big transactions ended on sunday) there is still not too much people interested and willing to spend actual money to get btcs as they are no good for anything more than hoarding\speculating at the moment

Anth0n
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 144



View Profile
May 03, 2011, 04:06:00 AM
 #11

It is certainly possible, considering the obscene jump in price recently. Lack of volume today suggests that there will be a correction to the short-term uptrend. Just my opinion. Luckily, the long-term fundamentals seem very sound, so I will certainly be looking to stock up at a lower price.
FreeMoney
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1246


Strength in numbers


View Profile WWW
May 03, 2011, 05:20:44 AM
 #12

It is certainly possible, considering the obscene jump in price recently. Lack of volume today suggests that there will be a correction to the short-term uptrend. Just my opinion. Luckily, the long-term fundamentals seem very sound, so I will certainly be looking to stock up at a lower price.

Or it could mean that mtgox.com was down most of the day.

Play Bitcoin Poker at sealswithclubs.eu. We're active and open to everyone.
m4rkiz
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 170


View Profile
May 04, 2011, 07:48:25 AM
 #13

due to some new 'discovery' i withdraw my statement

if there is at least one person (most likely with 30k btc or more) that had this idea before me there is very small chance that bitcoin will go down in next weeks

more, i predict price to be quite stable now - 3.x usd for quite long period of time (that is if there one of big players is doing what i think he is)
m4rkiz
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 170


View Profile
May 10, 2011, 12:41:04 PM
 #14

so much for guessing the usd-btc prices... day high is so far 4.99
fabianhjr
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 322


Do The Evolution


View Profile
May 10, 2011, 02:16:09 PM
 #15

Not anymore. We are way beyond the point of return. We made a jump to 5 USD with both price and volume in currency highs.

The high volum is a really bullish indicator and I am sure we will break 7 or even 10 USD by the end of this month. I have so far gotten more adopters to the system and I am soon to open a business with Bitcoin. Smiley

Some events are accelerating the exchange rate and even after the DDoS MtGox suffered we are still on rally. If PayPal were to make an open statement of Bitcoin it would be great.

First they ignore you,
then they laugh at you,
then they fight you,
then you win.

2009, Bitcoin had no value at all.
2010, Bitcoin is told as a concept and not a possibility
2011, PayPal stops processing Bitcoin payments and 2 PayPal exchanges close their doors. More to come.
Is the victory close?

aahzmundus
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 644


Invest & Earn: https://cloudthink.io


View Profile
May 10, 2011, 10:02:27 PM
 #16

I think right now what we see is people buying in easily and then when the price goes up, we get more and more people to buy in.

I have seen only 1 major sell since my time closely watching the market, and with trade bots that was quickly brought back up in price....

I think we are at risk of a group of reasonably wealthy holders "getting out" of bitcoin and striking a fear and then a string of "i told you bubble!" threads poping up that will cause a sharp drop in value for a while... i do feel we are going to see this sometime in the near future.  With a 40-50% increase in one day, who wouldn't cash out part of their investment to enjoy it a bit?  I know I cashed out a BTC in value of my initial investment to make my wife happy Tongue

Terpie
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 175



View Profile
May 11, 2011, 01:12:14 AM
 #17

I think right now what we see is people buying in easily and then when the price goes up, we get more and more people to buy in.

I have seen only 1 major sell since my time closely watching the market, and with trade bots that was quickly brought back up in price....

I think we are at risk of a group of reasonably wealthy holders "getting out" of bitcoin and striking a fear and then a string of "i told you bubble!" threads poping up that will cause a sharp drop in value for a while... i do feel we are going to see this sometime in the near future.  With a 40-50% increase in one day, who wouldn't cash out part of their investment to enjoy it a bit?  I know I cashed out a BTC in value of my initial investment to make my wife happy Tongue

I don't know about this. The biggest holders right now tend to be the extremely early adopters, and they also will be the ones most likely to be ideologically driven to see bitcoin succeed. They also probably firmly believe that bitcoin has a permanent place among global currencies. This leads me to believe that they probably won't trade bitcoins if they believe it will hurt its long term viability. At the rate of new services & goods entering the bitcoin economy, it makes sense to wait it out, preserve the high exchange rate, and buy goods and services with their fortunes, which will in turn generate even greater interest in bitcoin usage.
fabianhjr
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 322


Do The Evolution


View Profile
May 11, 2011, 01:24:40 AM
 #18

Lol, yeah. I mean, you can get enough Bitcoin value, lets say $5K and then just sell the half each time the Bitcoin value doubles.
You can set the ask prices from now and then just enjoy 2.5K for the rest of your life, of course you could go with more.

There is still a risk that they stop being appreciated this wildly or even a consolidation, though doesn't matter.

As long as people believe it as a medium of trade everything would be fine.

FreeMoney
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1246


Strength in numbers


View Profile WWW
May 11, 2011, 08:09:23 AM
 #19


As long as people believe it as a medium of trade everything would be fine.

Yeah, that might work as a proxy for people actually using it to trade, but we don't need a proxy since we're actually trading.

Play Bitcoin Poker at sealswithclubs.eu. We're active and open to everyone.
Enky1974
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 250



View Profile
May 11, 2011, 09:13:21 AM
 #20


As long as people believe it as a medium of trade everything would be fine.

Yeah, that might work as a proxy for people actually using it to trade, but we don't need a proxy since we're actually trading.
This might help:

I found, playing with statistica 7 by statsoft, a nice relation using instead of difficulty the network speed in terahash/sec to price btc/usd ratio.
The formula is:
btc/usd ratio=-.4621+exp(-.56571+(1.50987)*networkspeed)
where networkspeed it's intended in terahash/sec.
Example; actual speed it's 1.385 (from http://bitcoinwatch.com/)

so

fair price = -.4621+exp(-.56571+(1.50987)*1.385) = 4.13 $/BTC
the tolerance of the exponential fitness it's around +/- 1 btc

EDIT: btc/usd ratio=-.25882+exp(-.80633+(1.65207)*networkspeed) this formula is better and use last 150 days or "bitcoin GPU-era"
if network speed will drop to 1 TH we will have 2.07 $/BTC as fair price.


this is the regression fit chart
observe vs regression



__________________________________
My Blog at http://btctrading.wordpress.com/ | « O Fortuna,velut Luna statu variabilis, semper crescis aut decrescis »
Pages: [1] 2 »  All
  Print  
 
Jump to:  

Sponsored by , a Bitcoin-accepting VPN.
Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2006-2009, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!