About to fall below the 50 day moving average...short/intermediate term bearish

[natewelt]

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD#rg360zigDailyztgSza1gSMAzm1g50za2gSMAzm2g200

I hope you all can see the chart by clicking on the above link. Basically the 50 DMA acted as resistance from March (700) until the middle of May when it broke out of its downtrend around 450. It then became support and BTC bounced off the 50 DMA around 550 in June and again in the last few days at around 610. This has been very bullish, but the recent inability to break even the 640 level tells me we are about the test the 50 DMA again here in the next few days around 615-620.

This third test of support might not hold which would likely cause a short to intermediate term bearish move possibly reaching 550 rather quickly.

Best case scenario would be either the 50 DMA holds a third time and finally bounce towards 700 or we selloff towards 550 and form a triple bottom...
Worst case scenario imo would be we can't even hold 550 and go back into the 400s for some more consolidation...

These are short term predictions because BTC may end up being worthless or a million dollars in the long run of course.

I just sold 2 coins and only hold .25 BTC now at a 440 breakeven. If I see positive momentum forming I won't be afraid to buyback since I am a LT bull.


Welt

[RyNinDaCleM]

I think the D200 is the more important support there. They are very close to each other so if the 200 fails to hold, then we could be looking at a free fall back to support in the 550-570 area, as you said. There is likely to be a bounce to retest that lost support (D200/50) and if it holds as resistance then it's the GTFO moment.

[natewelt]

That bounce to test the loss of recent support, assuming it happens, is an important note. Might show the beginning of another sustained downtrend. Time will tell...

[RyNinDaCleM]

BTW, I'm glad to see you using Bitcoincharts. It's not real-time updating (which sucks), but it is THE chart site that all others should base theirs off of. I'm talking about Time, opens, closes (especially weekly ), etc...

[CEG5952]

BTW, I'm glad to see you using Bitcoincharts. It's not real-time updating (which sucks), but it is THE chart site that all others should base theirs off of. I'm talking about Time, opens, closes (especially weekly ), etc...

Why is that the case? Do they close on different time zones, and if not, do you see much variance or something? I tend to go by Tradingview and secondarily Bitcoinwisdom.

[RyNinDaCleM]

BTW, I'm glad to see you using Bitcoincharts. It's not real-time updating (which sucks), but it is THE chart site that all others should base theirs off of. I'm talking about Time, opens, closes (especially weekly ), etc...

Why is that the case? Do they close on different time zones, and if not, do you see much variance or something? I tend to go by Tradingview and secondarily Bitcoinwisdom.

I'm not sure what time tradingview uses as their close (should be UTC 23:59:59) but their week closes the same as bitcoincharts, which is on Sunday or Monday. Bitcoinwisdom closes on Wednesday or Thursday iirc. That can cause a fairly large variance in Bitcoin with our wild swings that happen from time to time.

If we all use the same closes (and not our own local time), then we all have the same charts and therefore, the same market picture. Sure you can change the params and in some cases have a head start on the market, but in many cases, you will have false signals. I suppose it doesn't matter when it is, as long as it's something universally agreed upon and used. Since Bitcoincharts was the first of it's kind and for a long time the default setup, I go by their times and closes. Call me old fashioned. It's just easier than bickering over when the MACD crossed up. We would all have the same picture.

[piramida]

In other news from your posted graph, SMA50 just crossed SMA200, last time it did that was when 1btc was $5 and it's been a nice ride since then.

Btw, the most inconvenient graphing site that one is. Static graphs are so 1990.

[wachtwoord]

When we broke SMA 200 in September we immediately launched.

[wobber]

When we broke SMA 200 in September we immediately launched.

I can't see that. Care to point it out please?

[natewelt]

In other news from your posted graph, SMA50 just crossed SMA200, last time it did that was when 1btc was $5 and it's been a nice ride since then.

Btw, the most inconvenient graphing site that one is. Static graphs are so 1990.

Yes it's called a golden cross, but it won't mean anything if the price falls below both moving averages preventing the averages from climbing.

[theonewhowaskazu]

In other news from your posted graph, SMA50 just crossed SMA200, last time it did that was when 1btc was $5 and it's been a nice ride since then.

Btw, the most inconvenient graphing site that one is. Static graphs are so 1990.

Was it passing on the way down ($5 to $2) or the way up?

[wachtwoord]

When we broke SMA 200 in September we immediately launched.

I can't see that. Care to point it out please?

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD#rg360zigDailyzczsg2013-09-20zeg2013-10-15ztgSza1gSMAzm1g50za2gSMAzm2g200

[piramida]

In other news from your posted graph, SMA50 just crossed SMA200, last time it did that was when 1btc was $5 and it's been a nice ride since then.

Btw, the most inconvenient graphing site that one is. Static graphs are so 1990.

Was it passing on the way down ($5 to $2) or the way up?

the way up obviously, would be hard for the faster moving average to beat the slower one on the way down

[RyNinDaCleM]

In other news from your posted graph, SMA50 just crossed SMA200, last time it did that was when 1btc was $5 and it's been a nice ride since then.

Btw, the most inconvenient graphing site that one is. Static graphs are so 1990.

Was it passing on the way down ($5 to $2) or the way up?

the way up obviously, would be hard for the faster moving average to beat the slower one on the way down

And it only took a year to break the standing ATH at the time

[theonewhowaskazu]

In other news from your posted graph, SMA50 just crossed SMA200, last time it did that was when 1btc was $5 and it's been a nice ride since then.

Btw, the most inconvenient graphing site that one is. Static graphs are so 1990.

Was it passing on the way down ($5 to $2) or the way up?

the way up obviously, would be hard for the faster moving average to beat the slower one on the way down

Lol, sorry.

[seleme]

Add a long term bull trend line and we are obviously at very critical point.

[Torque]

Add a long term bull trend line and we are obviously at very critical point.

The next few days for bitcoin are critical^TM

 

[vuduchyld]

Add a long term bull trend line and we are obviously at very critical point.

The next few days for bitcoin are critical^TM

 

Truest post of the day

[piramida]

Add a long term bull trend line and we are obviously at very critical point.

The next few days for bitcoin are critical^TM

 

Truest post of the day

Truth is, bitcoin could not care less about lines, rectangles, circles and numbers that we draw on it's price graph; unlike stock market, it does not have a board of directors to explain weak performance to - it just exists, while we silly humans try to make sense or profit out of it.

[8up]

Add a long term bull trend line and we are obviously at very critical point.

The next few days for bitcoin are critical^TM

 

Truest post of the day

Truth is, bitcoin could not care less about lines, rectangles, circles and numbers that we draw on it's price graph; unlike stock market, it does not have a board of directors to explain weak performance to - it just exists, while we silly humans try to make sense or profit out of it.

This.