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[myself]

del

[benjamindees]

We aren't here to subsidize speculation.  If you can't earn a living trading the relatively volatile Bitcoin market, find something more productive to do.

[bulanula]

I actually agree with this.

Speculation is the only thing keeping the boat afloat right now.

See what happened to coins like TBX, FBX etc.

No speculation on price = low value = not profitable to mine = dead coin

I think that is what will happen with BTC when reward drops in Dec 2012 but I may be wrong.

[notme]

See what happened to coins like TBX, FBX etc.

Not a valid comparison.  Why would I want to switch to one of those from bitcoin.  Oh yeah, that's right, I don't.

[ElectricMucus]

spot on

I would even go as far as to say bitcoin has become speculation.

[cbeast]

The next generation of bit bills using P2SH will be newsworthy. Many other cool technologies are yet to be announced in the coming weeks and months once we get passed this BIP 16 hurdle. Hopefully there will be a speculation jump in price to help motivate faster development.

[Kluge]

Speculation was necessary to generate interest. I think we have the infrastructure in place now to be able to weather a collapse from a pointless-to-consider-due-to-improbability sudden stop of speculation. There're enough things to do with BTC outside of fulfilling indicator prophecies where Bitcoin has legitimate residency in the global economy.

Price can go as low as it likes, but that doesn't take from Bitcoin's inherent value as a medium of exchange. Maybe people will stop "investing" in Bitcoin, but that doesn't make it dead or useless. It's like saying some grain is suddenly useless if it drops 95% in price. I wouldn't want to be a grain farmer in that scenario, but that doesn't mean I'd stop using that kind of grain. Especially with the higher-efficiency mining rigs being adopted, a dramatic drop in BTC price also won't cause an almost entire lack of mining because people with that niche high-efficiency hardware probably don't have much else to do with it, and selling it would likely be pretty darn difficult.

[SaintFlow]

so noone sees a pokerfaced shakeout 

[thest0ckman]

the drug market on silk road is what keeps btc alive and got btc to a place where you can trade it/speculate.

the darknet economy is the foundation of bitcoins' liquidity

[never2sleep]

the drug market on silk road is what keeps btc alive and got btc to a place where you can trade it/speculate.

the darknet economy is the foundation of bitcoins' liquidity

Truth.

Successful economic foundations require criminal activity to thrive.

Otherwise the balance of power remains unshifted, and stays in the hands of the wealthy few.

Robin Hood/SR FTW.

[evoorhees]

Successful economic foundations require criminal activity liberty to thrive.

FTFY

[never2sleep]

When true Liberty is not granted by our government, I will settle for criminal activity instead.

[Kluge]

Successful economic foundations require criminal activity liberty to thrive.

FTFY

Same thing.

[tvbcof]

'Dead' is a somewhat strong term.  Without speculation Bitcoin would likely still be a minor project with only a handful of interested geeks participating.  Maybe it would have been better that way.  Who knows?  It kind of depends on how Bitcoin pops onto the stage and handles itself if/when there is a genuine need for the solution.

[gewure]

Things i have done with bitcoin:

- bought a WC3 TFT Battlenet Key
- bought shares in Mining Companies
- played online poker
- payed debt to a friend in BTC
- save € value in it
- donated to wikileaks
- donated to various people doing cool stuff
- gave some away as gift to friends
- speculated with it

[muyuu]

Voted "i make a post."

Short term yes, long term no.

[wogaut]

The only thing that will push the value of BTC up is if
a real economy grows around it.

So true. I keep reiterating this, but the Speculation subforum isn't the place for that.
Speculation may seem to keep it "afloat" right now as bulanula stated previously, but it will not keep it alive in the long run. An associated economy is needed to give value to a currency.

While people have already used bitcoins for purchases, the way it is treated now as cryptographic gold, if you want to use it merely as a means of exchange without holding it for longer periods isn't much profitable right now. I hope this will change over time. Matthew got a load of that when he tried to get a BTC loan for an apartment https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=69272.0 and he's certainly not the only one, especially if you are selling stuff for BTC. Buying is certainly easier, people generally want to get their hands on BTC, but much of that revenue is going to be held, not spent, which is not good as a currency (it makes it more of a commodity). As a currency it needs to circulate, when I spend BTC, I need to get some back in future sales, otherwise it's not a great currency. If I can only mine it back that will not futureproof it (we know that block rewards will drop). And for transaction fees to be viable for miners there need to be transactions. So if speculation would be the only profitable means to get your hands on BTC in the future, it will not get popular in mainstreet to buy a cup of coffee.

[wogaut]

so lets say there is no speculation, speculation is gone, u know magic

personally I don't like magic, but why so black and white?

so you need 10 btc to buy ur drugs from SR, what you need to do ?  
1) set a mining rig, this solution is like "you work for bitcoins"

that option is feasible right now, but the lower the payout per block over time, the less meaningful that option will become

2) go on a exchange and wait until a merchant/miner wants to sell 10 btc at current price, what if nobody wants to sell you btc at this price ? what volume you get doing this ?

The statement reiterates the commodity status of BTC right now.
I would like to see BTC as a currency in the future. So then, what do you do if you need some $$ right now?

[benjamindees]

Really, your entire premise is just flawed.  Successful speculation leads to stable prices, which leads to investment and growth.  Unsuccessful speculation is self-correcting.  It's not even a question of "more" speculation or "less".

[wogaut]

Really, your entire premise is just flawed.  Successful speculation leads to stable prices, which leads to investment and growth.  Unsuccessful speculation is self-correcting.  It's not even a question of "more" speculation or "less".

IMO you're just looking at this from the other side:

People are speculating that an 'investment' would go up or down.
An 'investment' assumes there's value now or in the future.
A few hashes have no value (not even a few trillion), neither does a bunch of speculator 'assigning' a price to it (by speculating on it) add any real value.
Real value arises from the goods/commodities and services you can trade it for (that includes other currencies).
Otherwise it wouldn't even make sense investing it it, or speculating on that investment.
But I understand that this becomes forgotten if someone is just concerned with a number game of trends going up or down.