Israel: Operation Protective Edge

[noviapriani]

This entire escalation of violence is nothing new. It has been pretty predictable and cyclical and it doesn't show much evidence of changing. The unity government was an important step, but it is hard to say how much this current disruption will prevent the unity government from taking future diplomatic action. Netanyahu cracked down on Hamas on purpose (one of the main contributing factors to the resumed fighting) because it was threatened by the unity government, and they have no intention of working with said government even once this fighting is resolved.

The only real difference here is that the international community seems more critical of this current operation than it was of the 2012 and 2009 fighting. Maybe that new pressure will help, but I'm not too hopeful.

Alright, another serious question: what is the methodology of counting the numbers of the dead, and how do they assign them civilian or militant status?

This is difficult in any conflict. Impossible in others. We will never know for example how many people died in the DR Congo conflict, let alone how many were civilian and how many armed. We have some pretty good ideas based on well documented research, but that can only take us so far and in the end is an educated estimate. Likewise, in areas with strong government control against those they fight, we'll almost certainly never fully know how many civilians are killed. Russian soldiers in Dagestan for example tend to shoot up any car they think might be suspicious and then simply declare anyone found dead inside militants without any evidence. Or we invent new categories such as "suspected militants" or in Israel's case just Hamas never mind that Hamas employees could be someone like a civilian who dispenses food at a soup kitchen and has never held a weapon in their lives.

[zolace]

Just heard Fareed Zakaria on CNN say that Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Jordan have not condemned Israel, which is unprecedented. These countries are more fearful of Islamic extremist groups like Hamas than they are of Israel.

[noviapriani]

We often depend a lot on journalistic reportings, government figures, watchdog groups, and corroboration through investigations after the fact. As far as the Israeli-Palestinian conflict goes, one of the more thorough and rigorous collectors of such statistics and one not afraid to classify some of the dead as "unknown" if their status can't be verified is the Israeli organization: B'Tselem.

Both sides have incentive to manipulate data. Hamas has incentive to exaggerate the number of civilians dead, while Israel has incentive to label dead civilians as militants.

[sana8410]

Just heard Fareed Zakaria on CNN say that Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Jordan have not condemned Israel, which is unprecedented. These countries are more fearful of Islamic extremist groups like Hamas than they are of Israel.

The Egyptian government hates Hamas because of its relationship with the Muslim Brotherhood, Saudi Arabia dislikes Hamas because it sees it as an Iranian proxy in the area and Saudi Arabia and Iran are locked in a long standing struggle against one another for Middle Eastern dominance.

[Rigon]

I am highly skeptical of reports from the conflict zone, and will remain so until further investigation can be done; but, if true that Israel targeted and struck UN schools (and it seems likely that it is), then it could very well constitute a war crime.

[noviapriani]

I will say this though: It is easier to claim that civilians are militants after the fact than it is to claim that militants are civilians. This is because part of the rituals that go along with fighting generally includes the recognition of sacrifice should they fall in battle (often done through eulogies or the creation of posters and videos about them). It is an expected compensation for their willingness to lay down their lives for their cause, and a major part of militant PR / indoctrination tactics. Thus if militant groups like the Al Qassam Brigade tried to pass off their dead as civilians, it would create significant internal problems for them when it came to the loyalty of their fighters and the sense of community that such groups depend upon.

[Rigon]

Has war officially been claimed here? If not then I don't know how it could be deemed a war crime. Even of war was called it would be difficult.

[noviapriani]

Has war officially been claimed here? If not then I don't know how it could be deemed a war crime. Even of war was called it would be difficult.

War crimes don't require official declarations of war, they require conflict. In any case Israel has always had responsibilities with regards to Gaza under the Fourth Geneva Conventions.

[zolace]

How/why are you so well versed in modest politics, noviapriani?

[Brewins]

why every day I see the parts agreed on a 72 hours truce?

Shouldn't it last at least 72 hours?

[zolace]

why every day I see the parts agreed on a 72 hours truce?

Shouldn't it last at least 72 hours?

it should least 72 hours,but is a joke.....they say oh truce for 72 hours or we won't bomb the hospitals,and after 1 hour you hear another gun shut or explosion .....some say "this is war,this things happen in war"....but this a game plan between some rich "kids" with high influence who control the world..

[noviapriani]

How/why are you so well versed in modest politics, noviapriani?

Well thank you for the compliment, but I wouldn't say that I am well versed in modern politics per say, I don't tend to be very up to date on domestic US issues for example despite living here, when it comes to international affairs / international economics / conflict and terrorism, those are simply my primary areas of study. But even there I specialize regionally (specifically in Africa, and to a lesser extent MENA). I know little of South American or even European Union politics, and while I have taken some time to look at East and Central Asia, they generally fall outside of my area too.

As far as my target areas: I took the time to get my masters in them, i read the news and all of the reports from thinktanks on them that I can, I pay money to be part of certain intelligence gathering organization so that I can analyze data, and I watch for and read books and academic papers written by experts in specialized fields.

As for why? It is the field of work that I would like to end up in with regards to my career, and I find it fascinating which means that much of my research and work is enjoyable and recreational for me.

[Rigon]

Has war officially been claimed here? If not then I don't know how it could be deemed a war crime. Even of war was called it would be difficult.

War crimes don't require official declarations of war, they require conflict. In any case Israel has always had responsibilities with regards to Gaza under the Fourth Geneva Conventions.

interesting

Is this going to be another case of "guilt due to outcome" against Israel regardless of why? There have been at least 2 other school related incidents over the last few years where Hamas fired mortars from inside or near a school which resulted in return fire and kids/etc hurt. This seems to be quite a common occurrence from a leadership who hides beneath a hospital.

[noviapriani]

Has war officially been claimed here? If not then I don't know how it could be deemed a war crime. Even of war was called it would be difficult.

War crimes don't require official declarations of war, they require conflict. In any case Israel has always had responsibilities with regards to Gaza under the Fourth Geneva Conventions.

interesting

Is this going to be another case of "guilt due to outcome" against Israel regardless of why? There have been at least 2 other school related incidents over the last few years where Hamas fired mortars from inside or near a school which resulted in return fire and kids/etc hurt. This seems to be quite a common occurrence from a leadership who hides beneath a hospital.

War crimes are war crimes regardless (to some extent) of the motivation behind them. Israel has a responsibility to minimize civilian casualties, bombing a school full of civilians doesn't do that. As far as your comment on motar fire from them:

1.) The burden of proof for that is on Israel and if you are defending the action: on you. So prove that each case involved Hamas fire from that location.

2.) Even if you can (which you can't and third party testimonies in several of these cases have indicated limited to no militant activity in the area), it could still very well be a violation of the rules of war (thus a war crime) as the perceived military payoff in military strikes has to outweigh the threat to civilian life (the threat to civilian lives in these cases being extremely high), and there is little reason to believe that such would be the case in these scenarios. Mortar fire (especially the kind we see here) generally doesn't represent just cause for the deliberate killing of civilian human shields.

[Rigon]

Israel should be punished for destroying all the nice tunnel work that cost hundreds of kids lives during their construction. Who cares if it was Hamas leadership that had the kids do the dangerous work in the first place.

Now there is nothing left to show the effort put forth by those poor dead kids

[noviapriani]

In short: deliberately killing innocent civilians, even if they are being used as human shields, may very well still be a war crime if the military threat does not outweigh the threat to said human shields.

[Rigon]

Has war officially been claimed here? If not then I don't know how it could be deemed a war crime. Even of war was called it would be difficult.

War crimes don't require official declarations of war, they require conflict. In any case Israel has always had responsibilities with regards to Gaza under the Fourth Geneva Conventions.

interesting

Is this going to be another case of "guilt due to outcome" against Israel regardless of why? There have been at least 2 other school related incidents over the last few years where Hamas fired mortars from inside or near a school which resulted in return fire and kids/etc hurt. This seems to be quite a common occurrence from a leadership who hides beneath a hospital.

War crimes are war crimes regardless (to some extent) of the motivation behind them. Israel has a responsibility to minimize civilian casualties, bombing a school full of civilians doesn't do that. As far as your comment on motar fire from them:

1.) The burden of proof for that is on Israel and if you are defending the action: on you. So prove that each case involved Hamas fire from that location.

2.) Even if you can (which you can't and third party testimonies in several of these cases have indicated limited to no militant activity in the area), it could still very well be a violation of the rules of war (thus a war crime) as the perceived military payoff in military strikes has to outweigh the threat to civilian life (the threat to civilian lives in these cases being extremely high), and there is little reason to believe that such would be the case in these scenarios. Mortar fire (especially the kind we see here) generally doesn't represent just cause for the deliberate killing of civilian human shields.

Responding to live-round fire is not what I would call a war crime simply because innocents were injured.
Israel has gone WAY out of their way to drop leaflets and everything else as a means to lower civilian injury. Hamas intent is to ensure there is plenty of "innocent" people killed as a means to "win" by taking away their capabilities due to the international community being up in arms over the pictures coming across.

[Rigon]

If Israel is to be held to such war crimes then why isn't the UN, you, others going after Hamas leadership for their actions where the intended outcome is the death or maiming of civilians? Seems Hamas is simply not to blame for their mortar firing and use of human shields. That's pretty damn laughable.

[hdbuck]

If Israel is to be held to such war crimes then why isn't the UN, you, others going after Hamas leadership for their actions where the intended outcome is the death or maiming of civilians? Seems Hamas is simply not to blame for their mortar firing and use of human shields. That's pretty damn laughable.

such argument, much brainwashing.

[kuroman]

Just heard Fareed Zakaria on CNN say that Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Jordan have not condemned Israel, which is unprecedented. These countries are more fearful of Islamic extremist groups like Hamas than they are of Israel.

Actually there geopolitical reasons here, mainly tied to Iran, Saudi Arabia trough GCC is pushing to isolated Hamas as it has ties with Iran, at the same time Egypt is doing the same thing because of this same reason but also and mainly because Hamas has ties with Muslim brotherhoods and the previous goverment that was overtrown by the army, so Hamas is kind of isolated hence you don't hear the Arab countries in the region making aggressive diplomatic moves against Israel and in fact, you can see these countries are even blaming Hamas. Well on the good side, most countries has sent millions of dollars in humanitarian helps and hopefully the medical equipement, food and water can get to Gaza population before the situation degenerate to an irreversable situation with diseases spreading and what's not