btc guild unlucky of late?

[stryker]

Is it me or has btc guild been real slow with scoring blocks of late?  Please noone say variance, I'm just wondering what else it could be.... maybe uranus is inline with jupiter or something... I just know it don't feel right.

Meanwhile ghash.io are scoring four in a row!!  We should rename it the ghash & discuss fish chain.

[jonnybravo0311]

There are a number of threads discussing this very topic.  I know you don't want to hear it, but variance does indeed play a very significant factor in the statistics, especially as BTCGuild's total hash rate becomes a smaller and smaller percentage of the total network.  As of me writing this post, BTCGuild is reporting a speed of 9.4PH/s.  GHash.io, on the other hand, is reporting 42.47PH/s.  The total network is showing 143.2PH/s.

Here... let me throw some random piece of information at you and you can use that as justification for the bad luck:

This August there will be 5 Fridays, 5 Saturdays and 5 Sundays.  This only happens once every 800+ years.

[stryker]

Yes nice explanation, I think it will always be near on impossible for us to grasp such big numbers.  As if to prove me wrong BTC Guild has pumped out a shed load of blocks this evening, more than it should for the given hashing power.... all to make me look an ass  

[alh]

Could you make such a comment about Slush's pool? Maybe your "inverse luck" will push out a bunch of blocks there! 

[LightningBlade]

Hopefully it is just luck and not some hacker submitting fake share.

[stryker]

Hopefully it is just luck and not some hacker submitting fake share.

I was starting to wonder if valid block shares were being withheld by a powerful miner or something.

[BTC_1]

BTC Guild looks like it has a possibilty of shuting down

[stryker]

I read that notice on their site.... they are just being cautious because of their 3 month shutdown policy... I'd rather they be open about it.

Its just in case those ridiculous new york bitcoin license/policy become a reality.

[BTC_1]

I agree I think its very good at what BTC Guild has come out and be honest, if anything it gives them more credibility in my eyes.

Lets just hope this silly ass law does not go through !

[TheDragonSlayer]

What happen to BTC guild? Is it true they are closing?

[BTC_1]

No not at present but some idiot in NYC is trying to ruin everything, for ALL pools in the US :

Taken from BTC Guild:


This news update is being made to remind all users that BTC Guild is not a bank. Leaving BTC anywhere that is not your own wallet is always a risk that is outside of your control. Automatic withdrawals should always be set to trigger at least once a week, if not more frequently for large users, limiting your exposure.

The above is also important as news comes out of the New York Department of Financial Services, with proposed regulations which are extremely broad. Under the current proposals (subject to public comment and revision), operating a pool within the US will be impossible to do legally without obtaining significant personal information on ALL users, not just those in the US. There would also be significant financial costs which would exceed the amount of money the pool has generated since inception. Since there is no way anybody will mine on a pool with those requirements, it means that any pool in the US will be forced to shut down, or operate illegally and hope they're ignored.

If the regulations are finalized (this is unlikely to happen for at least 3-4 months if not more) in a form that still applies to pools, the pool will be forced to shutdown. This news post is being made as notice that this is an exception to the stated 3-month closure window identified in our FAQ and the forum thread. If the regulations pass, the 3-month window will be reduced to 45 days due to legal requirement to cease operations prior to the regulations taking effect.

This warning is pre-emptive. Nothing has changed as of this news post, and I am still waiting on feedback from legal counsel regarding whether or not it is possible for New York to extend its reach into another state if the pool has users in it from New York. The applicability of long-arm statutes for internet-based business activity is extremely messy.

[cloverme]

I moved away fro BTC Guild awhile ago, I noticed the luck was getting worse and worse and my payouts were dwindling (aside from factored difficulty), so I left, went to ghash.io and my payouts went back up.  At that time, BTC claimed someone had manipulated with pool with block holding, but I didn't really believe them.

This new york thing is being blown out of proportion by btc guild. BTC guild is in las vegas, so even less of a concern.... "waiting on legal counsel", oh brother, give me a break.    If you're making money hand-over-fist, you would do anything to remain in business. The fact they are so eager to close their doors, is well, odd and suspect. IMHO, they could easily move to a datacenter in canada with not much ado if they were that concerned.   

[ilpirata79]

This August there will be 5 Fridays, 5 Saturdays and 5 Sundays.  This only happens once every 800+ years.

You know that this is not true, right?

Every month with 31 days has 3 days of the week that repeat 5 times. It's not big deal.

Happens in average once a year to have a month with 5 entire weekends.

Best regards,
ilpirata79

[jonnybravo0311]

This August there will be 5 Fridays, 5 Saturdays and 5 Sundays.  This only happens once every 800+ years.

You know that this is not true, right?

Every month with 31 days has 3 days of the week that repeat 5 times. It's not big deal.

Happens in average once a year to have a month with 5 entire weekends.

Best regards,
ilpirata79

Yes I know that is not true... Lol.  I purposefully wrote a common misconception that is accepted as truth.  It is relevant here because people are constantly posting block withholding attacks as the definitive answer for what is far more likely normal swings in luck.

[stryker]

Me, I accepted it on face value because I'm a trusting type of bloke 

[jonnybravo0311]

Me, I accepted it on face value because I'm a trusting type of bloke 

Sorry about that stryker.  Just to give an example, the next time we're going to see a month with 5 Fridays, 5 Saturdays and 5 Sundays is May, 2015.  After that it's January, 2016.

[Gogreen]

What happen to btc guild luck? How many of you are affected?

[stryker]

As reported by btc guild their luck seems to be riding around 92.08% over the last 3 months.... another way to look at it is thats an 8% drop in your earnings if you mined for them over the last three months I guess.

[wpgdeez]

Best thing I ever did was leave BTCGUILD.

[DrG]

As reported by btc guild their luck seems to be riding around 92.08% over the last 3 months.... another way to look at it is thats an 8% drop in your earnings if you mined for them over the last three months I guess.

People love to talk without understanding the basics of mining.

It's a 7% drop, expected earnings on any pool should be roughly 99% since 1% will be lost due to lost orphan races.  BTC Guild actually lost none last week, while Ghash.io lost 1.5%.

Their 3 month rating is pretty bad - and it is known that they had a large hasher who was supposedly doing an unintentional block withholding attack.  Those stats won't clear out until August.

Looking at the past 24 hours I see their luck is at 200%.  Last week was horrible, this week has been excellent.  If only we had a name for this variable luck.....hmmmmm