Ignore the price which is treading water.
The fundamentals of bitcoin are improving.
1) Statutory regulation
The US could have stamped bitcoin into the shadows but instead is choosing to foster and regulate it. The first reading of NY bit license requirements may seem heavy handed, but it is common practice to propose draconian regulations then pare them back after a consultation period (incorrectly interpreted as listening by the state or regulators!). Either way, regulation is a green light from the state allowing banks and well funded entities into the bitcoin space. Compared with no regulations it may seem like a backward step to seasoned libertarian bitcoiners - and there is no doubt it will squeeze out new players and startups - but statutory approval goes along way with the great unwashed who are extremely suspicious still of crypto currency thanks to the fear of change and the negative MSM portrayal over fiascos like Gox.
Isle of man murmurings about becoming a financial cryptocurrency haven. Isle of Jersey tax sheltered fund starting up next month. Potential ETF allowing 'mom and pop' to participate in what they don't understand.
Opinion: Bullish!
2) central bank interference and dirty tricks
China, Russia, Thailand have changed their tune with regard to banning bitcoin every other week. The weekly negative 'announcements' by central banks around the world seem to have gone quiet. Softening their stance perhaps? Or simply muted impact on price therefore abandoned.
The ECB is still trumpeting the dangers of bitcoin to all and sundry, now 'advising' banks not to hold or exchange bitcoin directly. Whether this was released by someone with a keen eye on the technicals of the bitcoin price (breakout close) or simply in response to the news a European bank was apparently bidding in the 30k US marshalls auction, I don't know. I do think the central banks know _exactly_ what bitcoin is and the threat it presents to their continued hegemony over financial services.
It seems a bit easy at the moment and I still expect dirty tricks from them in the future. It must be positive that commercial banks are trying to buy up bitcoins off exchange.
Opinion: Slightly bullish to neutral.
3) merchant adoption
Overstock, tiger direct, DISH, newegg and now dell.
Apple letting bitcoin apps onto the app store. Silicon valley love bitcoin. I think they _really_ love bitcoin.
I expect the announcements to keep rolling in as entry for a merchant is very low and gains are obvious. Corporate america is adopting bitcoin and this can only have a very positive effect on the idea of bitcoin in the minds of the consumer. Companies such as newegg are advertising bitcoin and most companies are offering discounts over CC purchases. This will draw in new users. Oh and porn seems to be integrating bitcoin a bit more.
Bitcoin utility is rising far faster than i had anticipated.
Opinion and overall outlook: very bullish (spacesuit advised)!
4) user adoption and opinion
So dell (56 billion dollar turnover) announce bitcoin integration. The comments under the yahoo story are still 'crazy' 'biggest exchange bust' 'ponzi' 'scam' etc. I am generally extremely sceptical of _who_ is making these overwhelmingly negative comments but if they are accurate then there is a long way to go in educating the public on the strengths and characteristics that make bitcoin such a better money than fiat currency.
Google trends says we are still a way off from launching the next bubble.
Number of bitcoin transactions (excluding popular addresses) seems in a gradual uptrend.
Wallet growth - i had thought perhaps this was slowing down (post bubble price pullback) but a look at blockchain shows a strong uptrend (not far off 2 million wallets there alone). Let's not forget that what draws in the new userbase is when bitcoin is back in the press after blasting off to new highs again.
I do wonder if the MSM message needs some work as I view bitcoin's killer app as the properties of the currency itself. This is a difficult area as the average member of the public doesn't understand inflation or even what fiat money is. But the public understood commodity money (pre 1971) once, I think joe public can find the deflationary nature, commodity like properties and mathematically fixed scarcity of bitcoin as attractive as every single person on this forum.
Opinion: needs more work
5) VC funding
These guys can afford to throw several darts and miss with most. But literally hundreds of millions of dollars are entering the bitcoin development space. It is looking like the early internet period or a technological gold rush. They sense this market could be HUGE.
Opinion: bullish!
Conclusion:
So the despair on here that the price has not bubbled is misplaced. Bitcoin infrastructure and fundamentals are improving daily. The price can be manipulated easily and given the developments above it seems silly to think whales are not accumulating as much as they can prior to bitcoin going mainstream. I know I am accumulating bitcoins every month - in fact I am now pleased the PBOC stopped things dead in january.
Price predictions are folly, but if i had to speculate I would predict some more range based trading until an unspecified trigger starts the next bubble after a headfake down. As the price moves past the ATH things will get volatile. The last bubble had extremely wide media coverage with vast numbers of doubting thomas's and observers who 'got' bitcoin but couldn't bring themselves to buy in. They slapped themselves on the back for making a good choice as bitcoin 'crashed' earlier this year. These people will be the next and biggest draft of new money will drive the next bubble. They may buy through an ETF. They may buy through coinbase and circle. NY regulations will allow banks to front run and magnify the move. Speculators will get rich and go broke. Holders will potentially become wealthy. Just don't ask me when!
