Maths question

[qwerty555]

Can you help


1 If the current value of bitcoin used in all commercial transactions (remittance, purchases, gambling etc) on a daily basis is $30M

2 The increase in commercial transaction value volume is a)2% per month or b) 10% per month compounded

3 When will the volume reach $300M/ day in each case?

4 What will the price of bitcoin need to be to support a $300M/ day volume if only 30% of all available coins mined to that date are available for daily transaction??

[franky1]

using your numbers of 2% growth a month.. ...... easy maths suggests less then 118 months (10 years) based on your numbers.. but trust me, it will be sooner than that.

the 118 months is assuming that the value of the bitcoin stays the same but the volume of transactions increase by 2% a month. however if you dig deep at the underlying 'true value'** that makes bitcoin price (mining costs*) then you will se that mining costs jump about 10% a month.. so $300m a day value of transactions can happen in less than 2 years (based on the cost/average value increase) but were amount of bitcoins stays the same and only the $ value increases.

but if you throw the numbers alltogether for a volume AND value increase..



*because miners wont sell at a loss unless stupid and those buying from miners wont sell at a loss unless stupid.


**in december when costs jumped to $300ish due to Thash asics entering the market, 330ish in january $370ish in february $400ish in march $440ish in april . and about $550ish now(anything ontop mining costs that you see on market prices is the speculative supply and demand profiteering part)
more about the 'true value' part.
more than 3600 coins are traded on exchanges each day. so those buying at ~$620 yesterday wont want to sell below it, and if it costs miners $550 and they want some profit for a days labour they wont be selling below $620 either. then tomorrow everone that bought at $620ish wont want to sell at a loss. generally its the mining input that has more sway on pric stability of the monthly LOW average. and the profiteers that control the monthly HIGH average.. i personally ignore the highs and base my values at th average lows and mining costs, which for 2 years atleast has shown great trends.

[qwerty555]

using your numbers of 2% growth a month.. ...... easy maths suggests less then 118 months (10 years) based on your numbers.. but trust me, it will be sooner than that.

thanks I thought of that as well and have edited .

[qwerty555]

I think I have found a detailed technical answer/estimate to the question from a Feb 2014 report and that the estimation of 30% of coins available for daily transaction is way to high...

https://www.hvst.com/shares/2047-what-is-a-bitcoin-worth-as-a-transaction-mechanism

and this Jan report

http://honestnode.com/bitcoin-fair-value-a-first-assessment/

[franky1]

coin movement over 30 days

average 500,000btc a day (peaks at over 900,000 coins on 3 days of the 30 and a cople drops to 300k)

dollar value~$300m movement each day, but its your guess how much is movement of actual spending and how much is just cashing in and out of exchanges

[superbd]

Can you help

2 The increase in commercial transaction value volume is a)2% per month or b) 10% per month compounded

The question is quite difficult and I have no answer but I'm pretty sure that the answer is "a)".

[CharHill]

using your numbers of 2% growth a month.. ...... easy maths suggests less then 118 months (10 years) based on your numbers.. but trust me, it will be sooner than that.

Why will be it sooner? 2% growth a month, and you will check value of currency at all time.

[Baitty]

using your numbers of 2% growth a month.. ...... easy maths suggests less then 118 months (10 years) based on your numbers.. but trust me, it will be sooner than that.

Why will be it sooner? 2% growth a month, and you will check value of currency at all time.

I think I read something related to this before and people were estimating between 3-6 years.

[franky1]

using your numbers of 2% growth a month.. ...... easy maths suggests less then 118 months (10 years) based on your numbers.. but trust me, it will be sooner than that.

Why will be it sooner? 2% growth a month, and you will check value of currency at all time.

I think I read something related to this before and people were estimating between 3-6 years.

check my last post..

average btc movement is 500k a day...

do the maths,, thats the 300m.. so today is the day.. like i said it will happen sooner then he thinks as its already happening.. but i just done some maths based on his numbers.. im not sure where he got them from.. but yea,, they are out dated, "soon" is now

[Bitcoin Magazine]

http://vimeo.com/13497928

[CoinHeavy]

Keep in mind that measurements of coins moved per day do not necessarily reflect real economic activity.

An exchange moving 100,000 BTC from one wallet to another does not represent an economic event, merely a bookkeeping event internal to a single entity.