Just got my BFL refund in BTC, the rally can now start!!!

[Hyena]

Back in November 2013 Bitcoin was trading at 1200$. A couple of months ago Butterfly Labs started giving out refunds for pre-orders older than 6 months. What would be more profitable -- taking the refund now and doubling your bitcoin holdings or waiting and wishing for the Monarch to be delivered? I faced such a dilemma and finally decided to take the refund because BFL kept deleting my whiny posts in their forums which angered me. Also, even if they delivered I would have had to pay ~700 EUR for import taxes just to receive my equipment.

I was secretly wishing for the next bubble not to start until I get my refund and today I got the refund, effectively turning the initial 3.4 bitcoins into 5.8. I learned it the hard way that mining is pointless because my 60 GH/s miner costed me 140 bitcoins and it only mined 10 , thus I'm pretty happy about cancelling my 2nd generation ASIC pre-order. I don't believe it would have made any profits bitcoin-wise.

Having said that, my gut feeling tells me that the next rally can start now. To make this post more interesting, I predict that we will exceed 1000$ by the end of August.

[wobber]

Back in November 2013 Bitcoin was trading at 1200$. A couple of months ago Butterfly Labs started giving out refunds for pre-orders older than 6 months. What would be more profitable -- taking the refund now and doubling your bitcoin holdings or waiting and wishing for the Monarch to be delivered? I faced such a dilemma and finally decided to take the refund because BFL kept deleting my whiny posts in their forums which angered me. Also, even if they delivered I would have had to pay ~700 EUR for import taxes just to receive my equipment.

I was secretly wishing for the next bubble not to start until I get my refund and today I got the refund, effectively turning the initial 3.4 bitcoins into 5.8. I learned it the hard way that mining is pointless because my 60 GH/s miner costed me 140 bitcoins and it only mined 10 , thus I'm pretty happy about cancelling my 2nd generation ASIC pre-order. I don't believe it would have made any profits bitcoin-wise.

Having said that, my gut feeling tells me that the next rally can start now. To make this post more interesting, I predict that we will exceed 1000$ by the end of August.

But I want 1000$ at the end of July... Can you please wish for that?

[alexeft]

Back in November 2013 Bitcoin was trading at 1200$. A couple of months ago Butterfly Labs started giving out refunds for pre-orders older than 6 months. What would be more profitable -- taking the refund now and doubling your bitcoin holdings or waiting and wishing for the Monarch to be delivered? I faced such a dilemma and finally decided to take the refund because BFL kept deleting my whiny posts in their forums which angered me. Also, even if they delivered I would have had to pay ~700 EUR for import taxes just to receive my equipment.

I was secretly wishing for the next bubble not to start until I get my refund and today I got the refund, effectively turning the initial 3.4 bitcoins into 5.8. I learned it the hard way that mining is pointless because my 60 GH/s miner costed me 140 bitcoins and it only mined 10 , thus I'm pretty happy about cancelling my 2nd generation ASIC pre-order. I don't believe it would have made any profits bitcoin-wise.

Having said that, my gut feeling tells me that the next rally can start now. To make this post more interesting, I predict that we will exceed 1000$ by the end of August.

Voila!!! Logic ensues in the bitcoin world at last!!!

BTW have you noticed that difficulty has stopped jumping as much as in the past?

[ElectricMucus]

Congrats OP for being a little less dumb about your finances.

You are not new, why did you "preorder" at BFL?

[Hyena]

Congrats OP for being a little less dumb about your finances.

You are not new, why did you "preorder" at BFL?

you mean the first order or the second? I ordered the first time just for the lulz as I just got a fat pay cheque, I converted it fast into bitcoins and ordered the ASIC in 2012. I received that ASIC in October 2013 and in the first month it mined 6 bitcoins. I was able to order the 2nd generation ASIC for the profits of the 1st generation ASIC so it felt like a good bet. I admit, I don't care much about profits and money and that's the reason why I dared to buy shit load of bitcoins when they traded at 4.5$ each. So, it's difficult to say if I'm dumb, wise or just lucky.

[ElectricMucus]

Congrats OP for being a little less dumb about your finances.

You are not new, why did you "preorder" at BFL?

you mean the first order or the second? I ordered the first time just for the lulz as I just got a fat pay cheque, I converted it fast into bitcoins and ordered the ASIC in 2012. I received that ASIC in October 2013 and in the first month it mined 6 bitcoins. I was able to order the 2nd generation ASIC for the profits of the 1st generation ASIC so it felt like a good bet. I admit, I don't care much about profits and money and that's the reason why I dared to buy shit load of bitcoins when they traded at 4.5$ each. So, it's difficult to say if I'm dumb, wise or just lucky.

I'd say it's a mixture of luck and ignorance. You are among friends.

[InwardContour]

I learned it the hard way that mining is pointless because my 60 GH/s miner costed me 140 bitcoins and it only mined 10

I knew that mining wasn't profitable since months but I didn't ever imagine that
a 140 btc machine would have mined only less than 10% of its initial cost.

[Hyena]

I'd say it's a mixture of luck and ignorance. You are among friends.

Speaking of friends and stuff... When and where should the first meeting of the Bitcoin Speculation Subforums take place? Once we're all filthy rich it could sound like a plan, don't you think?

[ElectricMucus]

I was posting metaphorically, and you probably should ask Risto.
Did you know he managed to preemptively ban me on goats forum?

[ajareselde]

I learned it the hard way that mining is pointless because my 60 GH/s miner costed me 140 bitcoins and it only mined 10

I knew that mining wasn't profitable since months but I didn't ever imagine that
a 140 btc machine would have mined only less than 10% of its initial cost.

As bitcoin grew to this level, so did the mining industry, pushing the small man aside and making mining somewhat a industry business.
I understand that ASIC-s reduced power consumption per GH , but they also kicked out the average Joe.. I liked bitcoin much better when there were only GPU-s..

[piramida]

I'd say it's a mixture of luck and ignorance. You are among friends.

Speaking of friends and stuff... When and where should the first meeting of the Bitcoin Speculation Subforums take place? Once we're all filthy rich it could sound like a plan, don't you think?

there's 1k party scheduled some time sooooooon ) or what's your cutoff price for filthy rich?

[Hyena]

I'd say it's a mixture of luck and ignorance. You are among friends.

Speaking of friends and stuff... When and where should the first meeting of the Bitcoin Speculation Subforums take place? Once we're all filthy rich it could sound like a plan, don't you think?

there's 1k party scheduled some time sooooooon ) or what's your cutoff price for filthy rich?

I've subscribed to $4k+ prices. 5 digit prices would make a lot of people filthy rich IMHO.

[wachtwoord]

Back in November 2013 Bitcoin was trading at 1200$. A couple of months ago Butterfly Labs started giving out refunds for pre-orders older than 6 months. What would be more profitable -- taking the refund now and doubling your bitcoin holdings or waiting and wishing for the Monarch to be delivered? I faced such a dilemma and finally decided to take the refund because BFL kept deleting my whiny posts in their forums which angered me. Also, even if they delivered I would have had to pay ~700 EUR for import taxes just to receive my equipment.

I was secretly wishing for the next bubble not to start until I get my refund and today I got the refund, effectively turning the initial 3.4 bitcoins into 5.8. I learned it the hard way that mining is pointless because my 60 GH/s miner costed me 140 bitcoins and it only mined 10 , thus I'm pretty happy about cancelling my 2nd generation ASIC pre-order. I don't believe it would have made any profits bitcoin-wise.

Having said that, my gut feeling tells me that the next rally can start now. To make this post more interesting, I predict that we will exceed 1000$ by the end of August.

Thanks for the heads up. We were all waiting for you

[Benjig]

Glad you got your refund man, i hope all the people who ordered get theirs soon, now we can have a chiken raise.

[Hyena]

Glad you got your refund man, i hope all the people who ordered get theirs soon, now we can have a chiken raise.

Also think of it like that: When people ordered from BFL and paid with BTC, the latter was converted to USD (BTC got aggressively sold). Now, when BFL refunds they might convert USD to BTC thus aggressively buying BTC. Thus, BFL refunding to their customers might actually rise the price

But then again, I suspect BFL is refunding to their customers with the bitcoins they themselves mined secretly with the hardware they were supposed to send to their customers.

[wachtwoord]

Glad you got your refund man, i hope all the people who ordered get theirs soon, now we can have a chiken raise.

Also think of it like that: When people ordered from BFL and paid with BTC, the latter was converted to USD (BTC got aggressively sold). Now, when BFL refunds they might convert USD to BTC thus aggressively buying BTC. Thus, BFL refunding to their customers might actually rise the price

But then again, I suspect BFL is refunding to their customers with the bitcoins they themselves mined secretly with the hardware they were supposed to send to their customers.

Could you try tracing your payment back?

[elasticband]

BFL have still not shipped their Monarch cards? WTF.... let me guess another 2 weeks?

[Hyena]

Could you try tracing your payment back?

This is the address from where the refund originated:
https://blockchain.info/address/182xSUmHbVQQyULxBuc89kRmwvsBWN9yym

I'm not that good at tracing its coins back to the miners and determining if they're refunding with bitcoins they mined themselves so maybe someone else can do some analysis on that matter.

[wachtwoord]

Could you try tracing your payment back?

This is the address from where the refund originated:
https://blockchain.info/address/182xSUmHbVQQyULxBuc89kRmwvsBWN9yym

I'm not that good at tracing its coins back to the miners and determining if they're refunding with bitcoins they mined themselves so maybe someone else can do some analysis on that matter.

Thanks! I'm no blockchain analysis expert either though I checked whether they were dumb enough to use freshly mined coins in a few hops but they didn't.

Someone else wants to have a go?

[Roy Badami]

Congrats OP for being a little less dumb about your finances.

You are not new, why did you "preorder" at BFL?

*shrugs*

I'm waiting for a Monarch and I knew exactly what I was getting into pre-ordering, having ordered a Single SC, and an FPGA Single before that.

But if you refuse to mine, you can't cry about mining having become too centralised.

You don't mine because mining is free money (it hasn't been for years).  You mine because mining is good for Bitcoin.  It effectively a donation to securing decentralisation of the network.  (And, selfishly, what's good for Bitcoin is also good for my and your investment in Bitcoin).

And also, you mine, because it's cool to have cool miners :-)

Just my two bitcents.

roy

EDIT: I have no problem with the sentiment of this thread - I'm not going to complain if there's a major rally