My theory is proving true once again

[CoinsCoinsEverywhere]

Well, if you actually know what you're doing, you don't lose. People around here always keep saying that daytrading is stupid and you'll always lose. Other add that only big whales win, and everyone else gets ripped off. I believe there are people who know what they're doing and are successful by doing it!

Trading is a game where 95% of the people loses and 5% of the people win big. Same thing on wallstreet and in Bitcoinland. The real challenge is knowing whether you are the 95% or the 5% before you invest your time and money into trading.

There's an additional catch in Bitcoin land, even when you win in terms of fiat, you could still lose if you hold the fiat, due to Bitcoin appreciation.

Buy and Hold has been the proven successful strategy in Bitcoinland.

The best way to win at day trading is to be the whale that moves the market.  That way you take out the guesswork.  The one danger, of course, is if there's an even bigger whale out there that gobbles you up.

[williamj2543]

Good analysis. I don't know anything about investments and market predictions...

[tspacepilot]

Yah I've been wondering about the biggish drop in price yesterday.  I have no idea if you're right about the retailers or if the other dude is right about China.  But it is curious.  Thanks for the theory, I'm not sure it's "proven" but it is interesting.

[Benjig]

Chinesse bagholders who bought around 200-300 plus the merchants dumping definetely is a short term sell pressure.

[CoinsCoinsEverywhere]

Chinesse bagholders who bought around 200-300 plus the merchants dumping definetely is a short term sell pressure.

That's possible, but you don't know that for sure.  I doubt that merchants would dump a bunch of coins all at the same time.  I would think that they'd convert them as soon as they get them to avoid potential loss.  It's also possible that a whale just decided to dump a bunch of BTC, whether to cash some in or push the market down or whatever.

[An amorous cow-herder]

When you buy an amazon gift card through Gyft.com, you get 3% rewards points. I lose 1 or 1.5% on the spread (difference between the buy price at coin base including fees and the rate on gift.com; I've tried this on multiple occasions, executing both transactions simultaneously) and I lose 1% cash back that I would otherwise get using my Discover card on Amazon. So the net is that I come out 0.5 to 1% ahead.

Actually you loose 0.0% - 0.5% since buying the Gyft card with a credit card also earns you 1% reward points, according to Gyft. Fairly negligable difference in that case, granted.

[BusyBeaverHP]

Dell and Newegg offers 10% off with bitcoin purchases. That pretty much beats any fees incurred from purchasing bitcoins and create incentive for a closed-loop bitcoin economy.

[An amorous cow-herder]

Dell and Newegg offers 10% off with bitcoin purchases. That pretty much beats any fees incurred from purchasing bitcoins and create incentive for a closed-loop bitcoin economy.

Those are limited time promotional offers. Only for Alienware with Dell, and lets just check Newegg for a moment.

*Offer expires July 31, 2014 at 11:59PM PT. Offer valid while funds and/or supplies last.
Does not include Newegg Promotional Gift Cards, Marketplace or Open Box items.
Cannot be combined with other promo codes, or promotions that include a free gift.
Total discount limited to $100. Enter promo code: BITCOIN at checkout.
Discount not applicable to taxes or shipping.
Discount is applied before taxes and shipping are calculated.
Offer is only valid for purchases made using bitcoin. By using the promo code,
you consent to receive additional deals and promotions through our e-mail newsletter.
Limit one discount per customer.

All prices reflect the final price after savings/rebate(s). Offers expire 07/31/2014 at 11:59 P.M. PT. 

Especially the "Cannot be combined with other promo codes part".
Is that Bitcoin promo really better than would you could get for Alienware or Newegg anyway?

[CoinsCoinsEverywhere]

Dell and Newegg offers 10% off with bitcoin purchases. That pretty much beats any fees incurred from purchasing bitcoins and create incentive for a closed-loop bitcoin economy.

Those are limited time promotional offers. Only for Alienware with Dell, and lets just check Newegg for a moment.

*Offer expires July 31, 2014 at 11:59PM PT. Offer valid while funds and/or supplies last.
Does not include Newegg Promotional Gift Cards, Marketplace or Open Box items.
Cannot be combined with other promo codes, or promotions that include a free gift.
Total discount limited to $100. Enter promo code: BITCOIN at checkout.
Discount not applicable to taxes or shipping.
Discount is applied before taxes and shipping are calculated.
Offer is only valid for purchases made using bitcoin. By using the promo code,
you consent to receive additional deals and promotions through our e-mail newsletter.
Limit one discount per customer.

All prices reflect the final price after savings/rebate(s). Offers expire 07/31/2014 at 11:59 P.M. PT. 

Especially the "Cannot be combined with other promo codes part".
Is that Bitcoin promo really better than would you could get for Alienware or Newegg anyway?

While I agree that in the short term these promos aren't going to help the price of bitcoin much, it does raise awareness and get people to try it.  If nothing else, it's a step in the right direction.

[kokojie]

Dell and Newegg offers 10% off with bitcoin purchases. That pretty much beats any fees incurred from purchasing bitcoins and create incentive for a closed-loop bitcoin economy.

Those are limited time promotional offers. Only for Alienware with Dell, and lets just check Newegg for a moment.

*Offer expires July 31, 2014 at 11:59PM PT. Offer valid while funds and/or supplies last.
Does not include Newegg Promotional Gift Cards, Marketplace or Open Box items.
Cannot be combined with other promo codes, or promotions that include a free gift.
Total discount limited to $100. Enter promo code: BITCOIN at checkout.
Discount not applicable to taxes or shipping.
Discount is applied before taxes and shipping are calculated.
Offer is only valid for purchases made using bitcoin. By using the promo code,
you consent to receive additional deals and promotions through our e-mail newsletter.
Limit one discount per customer.

All prices reflect the final price after savings/rebate(s). Offers expire 07/31/2014 at 11:59 P.M. PT. 

Especially the "Cannot be combined with other promo codes part".
Is that Bitcoin promo really better than would you could get for Alienware or Newegg anyway?

I found that during the Bitcoin promotion at newegg, everything I wanted to buy was 5%-10% cheaper at amazon...

[kokojie]

I guess Dell is still mass converting to fiat from their 10% off Bitcoin sale.

[kokojie]

Well, looks like the initial short term drop is over? price is creeping up, maybe the retailers are not converting much to fiat now since the initial rush to spend is gone.

[CoinsCoinsEverywhere]

Well, looks like the initial short term drop is over? price is creeping up, maybe the retailers are not converting much to fiat now since the initial rush to spend is gone.

If we can hold 600 for a while, then I'd say yes.  Argentina's default a couple days ago may also be playing a role.  Now we just need to break 685....

[keithers]

This would only apply if you are assuming that all BTC spent at the new company that accepts BTC are spending coins that they have been holding onto. If they need to buy BTC to spend, then the more people soing so would drive the price up

[keithers]

I guess Dell is still mass converting to fiat from their 10% off Bitcoin sale.

Do you have any market data that depicts this?

[CoinsCoinsEverywhere]

This would only apply if you are assuming that all BTC spent at the new company that accepts BTC are spending coins that they have been holding onto. If they need to buy BTC to spend, then the more people soing so would drive the price up

Could you please explain to me why this would be true?  If people are buying bitcoins to spend immediately, then their net effect on the market is pretty much price neutral.  Someone buys bitcoin and the price ticks up, then they spend it and the merchant sells it, and the price ticks down (if the quantity is large enough).

[gogxmagog]

so getting retailers to accept btc is not the complete goal then. We need the infrastructure surrounding retail to accept btc. this will be a greater challenge for sure, but getting the tax man, utilities, the supply chain etc. to accept would be a good way to keep the btc flowing and negate most of the need to cash it out. Maybe over simplified view here, but pretty much right after I heard about btc, and saw the crazy volatility, I decided that the best case scenario would be to get btc, hodl, wait until I could use it as easily and universally as fiat, at which time it would have an exponentially greater purchasing power. The btc to fiat conversion model would become obsolete if adoption was absolute. Could be some time till we see that though.

[giveBTCpls]

Retailers seem like a double edged sword to me. They say "ohh yeah, we support Bitcoin" and so on, but then they act as Bitcoin dumping machines as they convert all of their gains to fiat.

[maker88]

this will be a greater challenge for sure, but getting the tax man, utilities, the supply chain etc. to accept would be a good way to keep the btc flowing and negate most of the need to cash it out.

in some european country(netherlands? belgium? can't recall) i heard you can pay taxes in bitcoin, but likely the host country immediately converts to their currency. if i could pay my utilities in bitcoin then i wouldn't even have a bank account except to accept fiat payments from employers and convert spare fiat into bitcoins lol.

[ensurance982]

I had a theory that major retailer acceptance has a short term DOWN effect on the price. Because when a major retailer announce acceptance, old coin holders rush to spend some bitcoin to support that retailer, often creating millions of dollars of transaction volume in a few days, and all these bitcoin will be converted to fiat by the retailer, creating sell pressure, for the short term.

Do you really think the selling pressure really manifests itself that quickly? Why would traders buy on the news then? I think companies that liquidate through BitPay or so aren't creating a lot of pressure since BitPay has buyers that buy the BTC they get on a contract basis, AFAIK...