My theory is proving true once again

[kokojie]

I had a theory that major retailer acceptance has a short term DOWN effect on the price. Because when a major retailer announce acceptance, old coin holders rush to spend some bitcoin to support that retailer, often creating millions of dollars of transaction volume in a few days, and all these bitcoin will be converted to fiat by the retailer, creating sell pressure, for the short term.

[Torque]

Yep, confirmed.  Because it was easy to check and see.

[Tzupy]

The seller pressure from BTC accepting retailers is relatively small. This dump was initiated by China,
and the reason is that the Chinese bagholders are increasingly impatient. For the bullish scenario time is running out.

[Malin Keshar]

The bitcoin selling pressure by commerces is not a new or unknown one.

But I doubt people would follow that theory before the sellings are open and strong.

[Wesley]

Don't people who use their BTC to buy from Bitcoin-accepting merchants usually replenish their lost BTC after a while? That would create a net neutral effect on Bitcoin prices.

[minerpumpkin]

Don't people who use their BTC to buy from Bitcoin-accepting merchants usually replenish their lost BTC after a while? That would create a net neutral effect on Bitcoin prices.

They can't do so forever. Depends on the respective individuals. We'd have to figure out what the typical Bitcoin customer is doing!

[lynn_402]

Don't people who use their BTC to buy from Bitcoin-accepting merchants usually replenish their lost BTC after a while? That would create a net neutral effect on Bitcoin prices.

I doubt that most early adopters, who still have hundreds of BTC bought for a few dollars, would want to buy back the same amount at a price higher by a few orders of magnitude after spending them with a new merchant.

[Tzupy]

Don't people who use their BTC to buy from Bitcoin-accepting merchants usually replenish their lost BTC after a while? That would create a net neutral effect on Bitcoin prices.

I doubt that most early adopters, who still have hundreds thousands of BTC bought for a few dollars, would want to buy back the same amount at a price higher by a few orders of magnitude after spending them with a new merchant.

FTFY. Early adopters can easily replenish and even increase their BTC holdings by trading.

[kokojie]

Don't people who use their BTC to buy from Bitcoin-accepting merchants usually replenish their lost BTC after a while? That would create a net neutral effect on Bitcoin prices.

I doubt that most early adopters, who still have hundreds thousands of BTC bought for a few dollars, would want to buy back the same amount at a price higher by a few orders of magnitude after spending them with a new merchant.

FTFY. Early adopters can easily replenish and even increase their BTC holdings by trading.

trading is a good way to lose your BTC holdings, even if you manage to not lose in trades, you still lose money to the exchange by paying a percentage trading fee.

[minerpumpkin]

Don't people who use their BTC to buy from Bitcoin-accepting merchants usually replenish their lost BTC after a while? That would create a net neutral effect on Bitcoin prices.

I doubt that most early adopters, who still have hundreds thousands of BTC bought for a few dollars, would want to buy back the same amount at a price higher by a few orders of magnitude after spending them with a new merchant.

FTFY. Early adopters can easily replenish and even increase their BTC holdings by trading.

trading is a good way to lose your BTC holdings, even if you manage to not lose in trades, you still lose money to the exchange by paying a percentage trading fee.

Well, if you actually know what you're doing, you don't lose. People around here always keep saying that daytrading is stupid and you'll always lose. Other add that only big whales win, and everyone else gets ripped off. I believe there are people who know what they're doing and are successful by doing it!

[BTCtrader71]

Don't people who use their BTC to buy from Bitcoin-accepting merchants usually replenish their lost BTC after a while? That would create a net neutral effect on Bitcoin prices.

They can't do so forever. Depends on the respective individuals. We'd have to figure out what the typical Bitcoin customer is doing!

Sure they can. Many early adopters intend to use bitcoin as a currency, and to hold it as a long term investment. Doing both at the same time means replenishing what you use as you go along. When I buy something online, I use bitcoin if I have the chance, but I prefer to deplete my USD savings rather than my bitcoin savings, so I do a quick USD -> btc -> purchase. If it's a miniscule amount then I might not bother with the USD -> bitcoin step, but if a bunch of miniscule purchases added up, then I would still eventually replete my bitcoin holdings.

[InwardContour]

I had a theory that major retailer acceptance has a short term DOWN effect on the price. Because when a major retailer announce acceptance, old coin holders rush to spend some bitcoin to support that retailer, often creating millions of dollars of transaction volume in a few days, and all these bitcoin will be converted to fiat by the retailer, creating sell pressure, for the short term.

Yes this is the real reason because the price is falling, but I think this is an healthy consolidation.
These good news are building trust in bitcoins among the adopters, more bigger companies will follow DELL in the next months.

[UnDerDoG81]

I had a theory that major retailer acceptance has a short term DOWN effect on the price. Because when a major retailer announce acceptance, old coin holders rush to spend some bitcoin to support that retailer, often creating millions of dollars of transaction volume in a few days, and all these bitcoin will be converted to fiat by the retailer, creating sell pressure, for the short term.

If the retailers sell immediately and in masses, they are stupid and they lose money that way.

[kokojie]

Don't people who use their BTC to buy from Bitcoin-accepting merchants usually replenish their lost BTC after a while? That would create a net neutral effect on Bitcoin prices.

I doubt that most early adopters, who still have hundreds thousands of BTC bought for a few dollars, would want to buy back the same amount at a price higher by a few orders of magnitude after spending them with a new merchant.

FTFY. Early adopters can easily replenish and even increase their BTC holdings by trading.

trading is a good way to lose your BTC holdings, even if you manage to not lose in trades, you still lose money to the exchange by paying a percentage trading fee.

Well, if you actually know what you're doing, you don't lose. People around here always keep saying that daytrading is stupid and you'll always lose. Other add that only big whales win, and everyone else gets ripped off. I believe there are people who know what they're doing and are successful by doing it!

Trading is a game where 95% of the people loses and 5% of the people win big. Same thing on wallstreet and in Bitcoinland. The real challenge is knowing whether you are the 95% or the 5% before you invest your time and money into trading.

There's an additional catch in Bitcoin land, even when you win in terms of fiat, you could still lose if you hold the fiat, due to Bitcoin appreciation.

Buy and Hold has been the proven successful strategy in Bitcoinland.

[An amorous cow-herder]

Many early adopters intend to use bitcoin as a currency, and to hold it as a long term investment. Doing both at the same time means replenishing what you use as you go along. When I buy something online, I use bitcoin if I have the chance, but I prefer to deplete my USD savings rather than my bitcoin savings, so I do a quick USD -> btc -> purchase. If it's a miniscule amount then I might not bother with the USD -> bitcoin step, but if a bunch of miniscule purchases added up, then I would still eventually replete my bitcoin holdings.

Ok, here´s the thing i dont get. Why would anyone want to do that?
So you loose money on the exchange (fees), pay the transaction fee and dont get any fancy things like cash back you would get using a credit card. So, basicly you are paying a premium for being able to use bitcoin?

[kokojie]

Many early adopters intend to use bitcoin as a currency, and to hold it as a long term investment. Doing both at the same time means replenishing what you use as you go along. When I buy something online, I use bitcoin if I have the chance, but I prefer to deplete my USD savings rather than my bitcoin savings, so I do a quick USD -> btc -> purchase. If it's a miniscule amount then I might not bother with the USD -> bitcoin step, but if a bunch of miniscule purchases added up, then I would still eventually replete my bitcoin holdings.

Ok, here´s the thing i dont get. Why would anyone want to do that?
So you loose money on the exchange (fees), pay the transaction fee and dont get any fancy things like cash back you would get using a credit card. So, basicly you are paying a premium for being able to use bitcoin?

Yep, this is my other theory, is that Bitcoin will NEVER be popular for regular domestic purchases, even online. The regular consumer simply will choose credit cards, every single time (unless for some reason anonymity is highly valued).

Bitcoin will shine in international trade/purchase, and also legal grey areas, such as gambling, adult business and drugs. Bitcoin has become THE currency of the Dark Net Markets, Bitcoin also enabled Dark Net economy to thrive and grow exponentially. Eventually, the physical shadow economy of the world will pick up Bitcoin too. It's simply better.

[An amorous cow-herder]

Yep, this is my other theory, is that Bitcoin will NEVER be popular for regular domestic purchases, even online. The regular consumer simply will choose credit cards, every single time (unless for some reason anonymity is highly valued).

Not necessarily. But there just isnt any decent infrastructure in place. That might change with 1000 bitcoin ATMs. Assuming the fees are low enough, the current 3-7% fees existing ATMs take is just plain robbery. Add some bonus similiar to cash back and bitcoin may actually be a valid option for "normal" people. But thats still a long way to go.

[kokojie]

Yep, this is my other theory, is that Bitcoin will NEVER be popular for regular domestic purchases, even online. The regular consumer simply will choose credit cards, every single time (unless for some reason anonymity is highly valued).

Not necessarily. But there just isnt any decent infrastructure in place. That might change with 1000 bitcoin ATMs. Assuming the fees are low enough, the current 3-7% fees existing ATMs take is just plain robbery. Add some bonus similiar to cash back and bitcoin may actually be a valid option for "normal" people. But thats still a long way to go.

Bitcoin can't compete on ATM vs existing banks domestically, I've never paid a ATM fee in my life for domestic ATM usage. Since my bank's branch+ATM is nearly everywhere. Even when I do use a 3rd party ATM ocassionally, my bank will cover the fee for me.

Again, the key is international. I did pay a rather high ATM fee when I traveled to Mexico and Europe and used my debit card at ATMs to withdraw the local currency. I would have preferred to just sell my Bitcoin and get the local currency.

[ArbatDeli]

Seems fairly unproven to me.....

[BTCtrader71]

Many early adopters intend to use bitcoin as a currency, and to hold it as a long term investment. Doing both at the same time means replenishing what you use as you go along. When I buy something online, I use bitcoin if I have the chance, but I prefer to deplete my USD savings rather than my bitcoin savings, so I do a quick USD -> btc -> purchase. If it's a miniscule amount then I might not bother with the USD -> bitcoin step, but if a bunch of miniscule purchases added up, then I would still eventually replete my bitcoin holdings.

Ok, here´s the thing i dont get. Why would anyone want to do that?
So you loose money on the exchange (fees), pay the transaction fee and dont get any fancy things like cash back you would get using a credit card. So, basicly you are paying a premium for being able to use bitcoin?

When you buy an amazon gift card through Gyft.com, you get 3% rewards points. I lose 1 or 1.5% on the spread (difference between the buy price at coin base including fees and the rate on gift.com; I've tried this on multiple occasions, executing both transactions simultaneously) and I lose 1% cash back that I would otherwise get using my Discover card on Amazon. So the net is that I come out 0.5 to 1% ahead.