Anyone following the ebola outbreak?

[RodeoX]

Ebola is not a candidate for weaponization. The closest attempt was by the Soviets. They weaponized the related Marburg virus, which also causes hemorrhagic fever. I don't think they ever used it.

But no nation is going to use a wild form of a virus. It would be like shooting a gun with barrels in all directions. You could not control who it infects, nor could you stop it once it starts spreading. In the future there will likely be highly selective germs created that target a particular race for example. Those will be dangerous bugs indeed.

Yes, the future is going to be weird...

But these guys don't need technology, and they aren't nation states.
You know they used to catapult diseased animals and dead people over castle walls?
They aren't interested in stopping the spread of it either.  God will sort it out.
There are a lot of crazies out there.


There is a lot of current effort into controlling the reservoir of infection, which is good because it is uncontrolled currently.  Awareness is the best defense.

Your scenario scares the pants off people who may have to respond. Remember the doomsday cult in Tokyo? Those are the guys who tried killing everyone on the subway system with ricin poison. Imagine if they had serious germs. Some group like that could infect themselves and head out into the crowds. It might be very hard to stop them.

[NewLiberty]

Your scenario scares the pants off people who may have to respond. Remember the doomsday cult in Tokyo? Those are the guys who tried killing everyone on the subway system with ricin poison. Imagine if they had serious germs. Some group like that could infect themselves and head out into the crowds. It might be very hard to stop them.

Good point, I should stop, because responding with no pants makes things harder!


Yes.  These people carry another kind of virus, a philosophical one.  When the two combine it's gets messy.


Believe me when I tell you, the folks who "respond" have war-gamed this extensively for decades.  This isn't new to "them". 
Here's a drill on it I remember from a decade ago:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A10746-2005Jan14.html

Normal precautions during flu season are good, but stepping it up a notch or two this year might be good.

[Vod]

The BEST way to protect yourself is to break your habit of touching your own face every few seconds.

Edit:  http://www.answers.com/Q/How_many_times_does_a_person_touch_their_face_daily

[Balthazar]

http://rt.com/news/195536-ebola-russia-vaccine-send/

Vaccine efficiency is 70-90%.

The vaccine has so far proved efficient against various hemorrhagic fevers, including the Marburg virus which is very similar to Ebola.

Article says that Triazoverin is based on combined mix of attenuated strains of ebolavirus and marburgvirus. So this vaccine couldn't be used to protect immunocompromised people (e.g. HIV infected individuals).

So is it so that the Triazoverin has 70-90% efficiency against various hemorrhagic fevers but has not even tested against Ebola yet?
And the other vaccines based on a strain of Ebola should come out in the next six months?

According to original video they have said that successful experiments were performed with ebolavirus also, but used strains aren't actual nowadays. Samples of new strain already were received but technology requires 1-2 months for breeding the sufficient amount of attenuated version of this actual strain. Using actual strain is required to make sure that vaccine will provide sufficient protection in this outbreak.

[Tzupy]

Most US hospitals not prepared to fight Ebola:
http://edition.cnn.com/2014/10/15/health/texas-ebola-outbreak/index.html?hpt=hp_t1

[ibminer]

I'd say we're up to at least 10-20 people contaminated with ebola in the US, they just haven't started getting symptoms yet. No clue how many animals... 

What hospital -in their right mind- would be sending someone home who recently came from Africa and was exhibiting symptoms related to ebola?? This seems like a huge breach in protocol and its certainly alarming that most hospitals are not prepared for an ebola outbreak in the US.

[TonyT]

I work on pandemic flu response. It's no joke and one day it will break out and kill millions and millions of us. Flu is a threat magnitudes of order more dangerous than Ebola.  

No Ebola is worse than flu as it currently exists, but possibly you are referring to something like the Spanish flu of 1918 that went airborne.  Ebola btw also has been transmitted by airborne transmission between Rhesus monkeys.  Ebola kills 70% of nearly everybody that comes in contact with it, while flu as currently in existence kills lots of old people and children.  Further, note the Spanish nurse, the Dallas deceased medical technician, and the two nurses in Dallas who are infected all wore rabbit suits but still caught the virus. Apparently--says the discoverer of Ebola, a Belgian doctor--taking off your goggles incorrectly, and rubbing your eye, can infect you with Ebola. It's that potent.  

I am predicting an outbreak of Ebola next year that will cause a worldwide recession--you read it here first.  What that does to bitcoin is anybody's guess.

TonyT

[BitMos]

about election 2016? delayed?

[ibminer]

about election 2016? delayed?

If that happens, wouldn't a civil war be right around the corner?   

[Spendulus]

I work on pandemic flu response. It's no joke and one day it will break out and kill millions and millions of us. Flu is a threat magnitudes of order more dangerous than Ebola.  

No Ebola is worse than flu as it currently exists, but possibly you are referring to something like the Spanish flu of 1918 that went airborne.  Ebola btw also has been transmitted by airborne transmission between Rhesus monkeys.  Ebola kills 70% of nearly everybody that comes in contact with it, while flu as currently in existence kills lots of old people and children.  Further, note the Spanish nurse, the Dallas deceased medical technician, and the two nurses in Dallas who are infected all wore rabbit suits but still caught the virus. Apparently--says the discoverer of Ebola, a Belgian doctor--taking off your goggles incorrectly, and rubbing your eye, can infect you with Ebola. It's that potent.  

I am predicting an outbreak of Ebola next year that will cause a worldwide recession--you read it here first.  What that does to bitcoin is anybody's guess.

TonyT

I know what it should do, but not what it will do.  What it should do is help bitcoin, as the coin is the fast way to move donations of money to the exact pinpoints in the world where they are needed.

[TonyT]

I am predicting an outbreak of Ebola next year that will cause a worldwide recession--you read it here first.  What that does to bitcoin is anybody's guess.
TonyT

I know what it should do, but not what it will do.  What it should do is help bitcoin, as the coin is the fast way to move donations of money to the exact pinpoints in the world where they are needed.

Maybe you are right, I dunno.  But they say the Black Death of the 14th Century helped Europe bypass the Middle East, in the same way the Plague of Justinian helped the Middle East (in 6th Century) bypass Europe.  So maybe fewer people will help the mechanics of bitcoin?  Macabre thought!

TonyT

[RodeoX]

I work on pandemic flu response. It's no joke and one day it will break out and kill millions and millions of us. Flu is a threat magnitudes of order more dangerous than Ebola.  

No Ebola is worse than flu as it currently exists, but possibly you are referring to something like the Spanish flu of 1918 that went airborne.  Ebola btw also has been transmitted by airborne transmission between Rhesus monkeys.  Ebola kills 70% of nearly everybody that comes in contact with it, while flu as currently in existence kills lots of old people and children.  Further, note the Spanish nurse, the Dallas deceased medical technician, and the two nurses in Dallas who are infected all wore rabbit suits but still caught the virus. Apparently--says the discoverer of Ebola, a Belgian doctor--taking off your goggles incorrectly, and rubbing your eye, can infect you with Ebola. It's that potent.  

I am predicting an outbreak of Ebola next year that will cause a worldwide recession--you read it here first.  What that does to bitcoin is anybody's guess.

TonyT

Well, the evidence of airborne transmission in pigs and monkeys is very weak. There is some evidence of droplet transmission, but ebola is considered kids stuff compared with Flu. That could change if a strain evolves in the human population it's infecting right now. But it is extremely unlikely to evolve the ability to become airborne. The fear is more about evolving the ability to infect others while the patient is asymptomatic.  That would greatly complicate things.
Right now it is thought that most health care providers who become infected contract the disease during the "doffing" (undressing) process.  If Ebola were an airborne disease those protective cloths would do nothing and the whole hospital would be raging with viri.

[TonyT]

Well, the evidence of airborne transmission in pigs and monkeys is very weak. There is some evidence of droplet transmission, but ebola is considered kids stuff compared with Flu. That could change if a strain evolves in the human population it's infecting right now. But it is extremely unlikely to evolve the ability to become airborne. The fear is more about evolving the ability to infect others while the patient is asymptomatic.  That would greatly complicate things.
Right now it is thought that most health care providers who become infected contract the disease during the "doffing" (undressing) process.  If Ebola were an airborne disease those protective cloths would do nothing and the whole hospital would be raging with viri.

Yes, I read the ~2005 paper on rhesus monkey airborne transmission and it was not compelling.  As you allude to, a virus will evolve in a human to become less lethal, so it sticks around and infects people, the same way they say syphilis and small pox did.  As for asymptomatic transmission, the other day I read (I'm not in the field like you, this was a blurb in the lay press) that an Ebola patient can in theory transmit Ebola up to several months after being infected through sexual contact, when the patient is asymptomatic (that was the gist of the blurb).  So there's a fear apparently that perhaps the virus can be somewhat dormant in a post-Ebola patient and maybe infect others?  Or that was my understanding.  Anyway, I'm predicting disaster next year, and am 'stocking up' on my bitcoin.

TonyT

[ibminer]

http://www.cnn.com/2014/10/15/health/ebola-up-to-speed

I am pretty sure the entire hospital should be quarantined and locked down and all staff should be put in isolation and tested. All patients in the hospital for the time the patient was in the hospital should also be put into isolation and tested

[Wilikon]

                                Stay safe Chef Ramsay

[Spendulus]

I work on pandemic flu response. It's no joke and one day it will break out and kill millions and millions of us. Flu is a threat magnitudes of order more dangerous than Ebola.  

No Ebola is worse than flu as it currently exists, but possibly you are referring to something like the Spanish flu of 1918 that went airborne.  Ebola btw also has been transmitted by airborne transmission between Rhesus monkeys.  Ebola kills 70% of nearly everybody that comes in contact with it, while flu as currently in existence kills lots of old people and children.  Further, note the Spanish nurse, the Dallas deceased medical technician, and the two nurses in Dallas who are infected all wore rabbit suits but still caught the virus. Apparently--says the discoverer of Ebola, a Belgian doctor--taking off your goggles incorrectly, and rubbing your eye, can infect you with Ebola. It's that potent.  

I am predicting an outbreak of Ebola next year that will cause a worldwide recession--you read it here first.  What that does to bitcoin is anybody's guess.

TonyT

Well, the evidence of airborne transmission in pigs and monkeys is very weak. There is some evidence of droplet transmission, but ebola is considered kids stuff compared with Flu. That could change if a strain evolves in the human population it's infecting right now. But it is extremely unlikely to evolve the ability to become airborne. The fear is more about evolving the ability to infect others while the patient is asymptomatic.  That would greatly complicate things.
Right now it is thought that most health care providers who become infected contract the disease during the "doffing" (undressing) process.  If Ebola were an airborne disease those protective cloths would do nothing and the whole hospital would be raging with viri.

Not being in your field, when you say "droplet transmission" are you referring to airborne micro droplets?  I know of these from chemical engineering and combustion technology. 

[TonyT]

Not being in your field, when you say "droplet transmission" are you referring to airborne micro droplets?  I know of these from chemical engineering and combustion technology. 

Yeah those droplets can get mighty small.  Recall Millikan's famous electron oil drop experiments.  Imagine now one of those tiny droplets landing in your mucus membranes...and causing 'instant death' from Ebola!  Then you'll get the CDC saying that you were at fault for not wearing your respirator properly....

[RodeoX]

Not being in your field, when you say "droplet transmission" are you referring to airborne micro droplets?  I know of these from chemical engineering and combustion technology. 

That's exactly right. Like when you sneeze and a million tiny drops become airborne. Ebola does not cause sneezing, but a patient could also have a cold and I think that means he/she could infect you with a sneeze. 

Yeah those droplets can get mighty small.  Recall Millikan's famous electron oil drop experiments.  Imagine now one of those tiny droplets landing in your mucus membranes...and causing 'instant death' from Ebola!  Then you'll get the CDC saying that you were at fault for not wearing your respirator properly....

Certainly if you could get those viri drifting around on droplets it would be bad. For the most part, the patients diarrhea and vomit are the greatest concern. Especially when they reach the bleeding phase.  Fortunately this does not cause aerosolization and so a direct barrier is sufficient. 
Not that I would feel safe.

[ibminer]

You guys are all acting like this is just a normal ebola outbreak.  This outbreak has already claimed way more lives then any prior ebola outbreak recorded, and in my opinion, its not the same.  What makes this current outbreak so different?? Maybe its being distributed?

[Spendulus]

Not being in your field, when you say "droplet transmission" are you referring to airborne micro droplets?  I know of these from chemical engineering and combustion technology.  

That's exactly right. Like when you sneeze and a million tiny drops become airborne. Ebola does not cause sneezing, but a patient could also have a cold and I think that means he/she could infect you with a sneeze.  

Yeah those droplets can get mighty small.  Recall Millikan's famous electron oil drop experiments.  Imagine now one of those tiny droplets landing in your mucus membranes...and causing 'instant death' from Ebola!  Then you'll get the CDC saying that you were at fault for not wearing your respirator properly....

Certainly if you could get those viri drifting around on droplets it would be bad. For the most part, the patients diarrhea and vomit are the greatest concern. Especially when they reach the bleeding phase.  Fortunately this does not cause aerosolization and so a direct barrier is sufficient.  
Not that I would feel safe.

Some years ago I ran a computer maintenance operation on an Army base right next to the bay (salt water).  We could plot an exponential rise in pc board corrosion based on distance from the water.  But 600 feet inland, there was still corrosion.  That's what microdroplets do.  They are airborne, and have a finite lifetime (averaging milliseconds, but based mostly on the ambient humidity and temperature.  Statistical, but even after 3 sigma there are SOME floating.)  600 foot radius from one of these patients?

You might have to condemn the entire hospital if you take one of these patients in.  Lives lost are then far in excess of lives saved, so this is looking to me like tents in the desert, or somewhere isolated from the cities.  That's okay with me if that's what we have to do, I'd just like to see a reality orientation from the gubbermint(s).