Has this just been the "Silk Road drop" of 2014's bubble?

[wenben]

China crashed is one big correction. We have stabilize around 600.

[ensurance982]

Recent drop is not compared to that big one with silk road. Actually there is no bad news now.

Recent drop may been caused by Bitfinex long positions shutting (selling bitcoins and paying borrowed USD back and taking losses.) I also think that Coinbase and Bitpay give decent selling pressure to the markets.. And of course we have thousands of coins mined everyday.

The credit bubble on Finex hasn't really gone down I guess. It's true that there have been quite some incidents of burned longs I guess, some may even be wiped out by now, but I've yet to see a big definitive cascade happening!

[Arv1e]

Its interesting reading all the posts with everyone micro analysing.

I decided to buy a few bitcoins about a month back when the price was 580 and seen a price rise to 640'ish then a slow decline back to 580

Let me share my thoughts from a real Newbie perspective.

All the news I am reading is reinforcing that bitcoin is here to stay BUT this only applies if you are already a Bitcoin convert. Try looking at the news from an outsiders perspective and then you will soon realise there is nothing YET which will attract a mad rush.

In fact, the news is probably negative from their perspective as its all about regulation and seen as uncertain doom and gloom. How is New York looking to overregulate the crap out of it making it almost impossible to trade be good news!!

The counter arguement is simple; Bitcoin doesn't need New York it just needs financially credible locations and solid support to evolve.

Just to give you a small example i read a post from a major financial journal on bitcoin clearly stating that it was a shame the industry hadn't made it 3rd world friendly as over 3 billion people are impoverished and have no access to bank accounts etc. Shame he didn't take time to do some research www.37coins.com

My position is simple.. Keep reading the news as it dribbles through and each day ask myself.. is this adding to the foundation and strengthening Bitcoin.

Soon a major incident will break.. maybe a Warren Buffet or an Ebay and it will pump to $2500 and then, have a guess what. the same scenario will happen all over again as it drops back to $1500 BUT your portfolio will still have increased THREEFOLD!

From a simpleton newbie perspective.

[scryptasicminer]

Its interesting reading all the posts with everyone micro analysing.

I decided to buy a few bitcoins about a month back when the price was 580 and seen a price rise to 640'ish then a slow decline back to 580

Let me share my thoughts from a real Newbie perspective.

All the news I am reading is reinforcing that bitcoin is here to stay BUT this only applies if you are already a Bitcoin convert. Try looking at the news from an outsiders perspective and then you will soon realise there is nothing YET which will attract a mad rush.

In fact, the news is probably negative from their perspective as its all about regulation and seen as uncertain doom and gloom. How is New York looking to overregulate the crap out of it making it almost impossible to trade be good news!!

The counter arguement is simple; Bitcoin doesn't need New York it just needs financially credible locations and solid support to evolve.

Just to give you a small example i read a post from a major financial journal on bitcoin clearly stating that it was a shame the industry hadn't made it 3rd world friendly as over 3 billion people are impoverished and have no access to bank accounts etc. Shame he didn't take time to do some research www.37coins.com

My position is simple.. Keep reading the news as it dribbles through and each day ask myself.. is this adding to the foundation and strengthening Bitcoin.

Soon a major incident will break.. maybe a Warren Buffet or an Ebay and it will pump to $2500 and then, have a guess what. the same scenario will happen all over again as it drops back to $1500 BUT your portfolio will still have increased THREEFOLD!

From a simpleton newbie perspective.

Just want to know if the price will hit 100k some day.

[Biodom]

Its interesting reading all the posts with everyone micro analysing.

I decided to buy a few bitcoins about a month back when the price was 580 and seen a price rise to 640'ish then a slow decline back to 580

Let me share my thoughts from a real Newbie perspective.

All the news I am reading is reinforcing that bitcoin is here to stay BUT this only applies if you are already a Bitcoin convert. Try looking at the news from an outsiders perspective and then you will soon realise there is nothing YET which will attract a mad rush.

In fact, the news is probably negative from their perspective as its all about regulation and seen as uncertain doom and gloom. How is New York looking to overregulate the crap out of it making it almost impossible to trade be good news!!

The counter arguement is simple; Bitcoin doesn't need New York it just needs financially credible locations and solid support to evolve.

Just to give you a small example i read a post from a major financial journal on bitcoin clearly stating that it was a shame the industry hadn't made it 3rd world friendly as over 3 billion people are impoverished and have no access to bank accounts etc. Shame he didn't take time to do some research www.37coins.com

My position is simple.. Keep reading the news as it dribbles through and each day ask myself.. is this adding to the foundation and strengthening Bitcoin.

Soon a major incident will break.. maybe a Warren Buffet or an Ebay and it will pump to $2500 and then, have a guess what. the same scenario will happen all over again as it drops back to $1500 BUT your portfolio will still have increased THREEFOLD!

From a simpleton newbie perspective.

Just want to know if the price will hit 100k some day.

No, unless world would go through some kind of ordeal, which would suck for most people.
Mammals were small furry animals, mostly the size of mice.
A large asteroid hit Earth 65 mil years ago, dinosaurs died off and mammals became the dominant animal group.
Bitcoin would take a very long time, if ever, to replace the current banking/money system without banking crash.

[ensurance982]

Just want to know if the price will hit 100k some day.

No, unless world would go through some kind of ordeal, which would suck for most people.
Mammals were small furry animals, mostly the size of mice.
A large asteroid hit Earth 65 mil years ago, dinosaurs died off and mammals became the dominant animal group.
Bitcoin would take a very long time, if ever, to replace the current banking/money system without banking crash.

So, what are you implying? Are you saying we need another meteor hitting earth in order for bitcoin to become world's number 1 currency? Well, let's go and make a kickstarter 

[Dalmar]

Wow, that's interesting. Care to elaborate on that indicator? Do you think this means we're practically condemned and awaiting the big fall?

It basically analyzes the trend. You can get the source code here: https://www.tradingview.com/v/GhxOzF0z/
It's a fairly accurate indicator, it warns of major drops and/or trend reversals coming in advance often on the daily setting.

[minerpumpkin]

Wow, that's interesting. Care to elaborate on that indicator? Do you think this means we're practically condemned and awaiting the big fall?

It basically analyzes the trend. You can get the source code here: https://www.tradingview.com/v/GhxOzF0z/
It's a fairly accurate indicator, it warns of major drops and/or trend reversals coming in advance often on the daily setting.

If that indicator is that accurate, aren't we pretty much screwed then? I mean, it's turning into a bear market, and that pretty aggressively!

[Dalmar]

If that indicator is that accurate, aren't we pretty much screwed then? I mean, it's turning into a bear market, and that pretty aggressively!

There were some false positives in 2012 where the indicator went down, but the market just went sideways. However, most of the time when it goes down this strongly on the daily the market turns bearish for at least a couple of weeks. We'll see.

[minerpumpkin]

If that indicator is that accurate, aren't we pretty much screwed then? I mean, it's turning into a bear market, and that pretty aggressively!

There were some false positives in 2012 where the indicator went down, but the market just went sideways. However, most of the time when it goes down this strongly on the daily the market turns bearish for at least a couple of weeks. We'll see.

But this isn't unprecedented, is it? When I look on that chart, it seems like we haven't seen something like this before, so I just try and figure out what this currently means.

[Dalmar]

But this isn't unprecedented, is it? When I look on that chart, it seems like we haven't seen something like this before, so I just try and figure out what this currently means.

Here's the full data

TII on Mt.Gox:
https://i.imgur.com/jQ47WXd.jpg

TII on Bitstamp:
https://i.imgur.com/KPTlhhj.jpg

Anyhow, see it more as a ''bear or sideways'' indicator rather than it always predicting bear markets.

[counter]

In my opinion this isn't the same situation.  The only thing that is similar to me is the speculators and traders manipulating the market on the news.  I think that is the real issue and the cause of "bubbles".  The alt coin scene is like this all the time and I think greed and inexperience is the main cause of the bubbles.  

[2014Bubble]

I don't need a Silk Road event, in order to happen! Just give me some more time, geez. It's not that easy, you know?

[Wandererfromthenorth]

I don't need a Silk Road event, in order to happen! Just give me some more time, geez. It's not that easy, you know?

LOL 

[Mobius]

Recent drop is not compared to that big one with silk road. Actually there is no bad news now.

Recent drop may been caused by Bitfinex long positions shutting (selling bitcoins and paying borrowed USD back and taking losses.) I also think that Coinbase and Bitpay give decent selling pressure to the markets.. And of course we have thousands of coins mined everyday.

I think both coinbase and bitpay cause a net amount of bitcoin to be purchased rather then sold as people will likely buy some amount greater then what they plan on spending. Companies will also likely hold at least a small percentage of their bitcoin revenue in bitcoin.

[Dalmar]

According to the Trend Intensity Index this one is structurally significantly more bearish:

This indicator was accurate as hell. 

Prices now sub-400..

[arxwn]

What is the indicator on the second graph and how it works ?

[Tzupy]

It's amazing how many forum dwellers didn't understand that the bear market was still going on.
Waiting for a bubble that couldn't come. Many of them might turn bears close to the bottom.

[Dalmar]

What is the indicator on the second graph and how it works ?

You can get it on tradingview if you look for ''Trend Intensity Index [LazyBear]'' under indicators.
It works best on the daily chart. It warned of this major bear trend all the way in the low 600s. Pretty neat.

[arxwn]

What is the indicator on the second graph and how it works ?

You can get it on tradingview if you look for ''Trend Intensity Index [LazyBear]'' under indicators.
It works best on the daily chart. It warned of this major bear trend all the way in the low 600s. Pretty neat.

The long plateus signify a trend continuation ?