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Author Topic: How to win at the Forex.  (Read 2778 times)
BADecker (OP)
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August 06, 2014, 09:37:11 PM
 #1

The prerequisites are as follows:

1. Obviously, you need an honest broker who isn't going to change quotes and things on you when the market is going your way.

2. You need a broker who accepts Stops and Limits, hedging, and scalping, which leaves most (if not all) U.S. brokers out. The reason for Stops and Limits is simple. If you have a good strategy, and you set your Stop at 90, and your Limit at 10, you are going to get your limit most of the time. In fact, you might get your limit very fast after initiating the trade. This is the reason you need a broker who allows scalping.

If you are stopped out now and again, multiply the number of lots in your next trade (in many cases it is better to skip a trade before applying the lot multiple) so that your loss is covered. This is why you need a good Strategy, so that your high-lot trade doesn't become a loser, as well.

Hedging is for balance, so that you can be winning in one direction while you are losing in the other.

3. Of course, you should find a broker with a small spread. And you should use one of the major currency pairs - EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD - for faster execution. However, almost any of the 14 top pairs can be made to work. TEST! As has been said many places many times, past performance is no indicator of future results.

4. I would recommend a significantly large investment (for a little trader), say, similar to $2,000 USD. However, if you have a good Strategy, an investment of as little as $500 USD might be sufficient. The reason for a good investment is to cover drawdown, which is almost certain to happen now and again.

5. Using this kind of Stop/Limit activity, it is often best to initiate trades during the quiet time in the market, the time between major activity on all the markets. This time is generally between 7PM GMT and 10PM GMT. Of course, if you have a Strategy that works better with other times, do what works best for you.

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If you have the above basics, here is a little Strategy that should work. But test it out in demos and with back testing before you trust it. Here it is.

A. Work with the hourly GMT times listed above - 7PM, 8PM, 9PM, 10PM.

B. Have a maximum of 1 trade running at any one time in both directions, long or short, for a total of 2 trades max. This is your hedging. Some of these trades may be in multiple lots to make up for previous losses, because of the high Stop and the low Limit.

C. I would use the EURUSD pair to start, until I had checked out others through testing.

D. When you start, at 7PM GMT, open two trades, one long and the other short. Set the Limit on both at 10, and the Stop at 90. This is the IMPORTANT part of the Strategy.

E. At 8PM GMT, check your two trades to see if the Stop or Limit has closed one or both of the trades. If it has, open another trade so that you always have two trades running, one long and the other short.

F. Come back at 9PM and 10PM and do the same. If any closed trades happen to be losses, skip a trade, and then multiply the lots of the next trade sufficiently to cover the loss of the losing trade - usually 12 or 13 lots, depending on the spread.

G. Come back the next trading day and start over, always skipping one trade before multiplying lots to cover a losing trade.

That's it.

In your testing of the above Strategy, you might be able to find hours that work better than those suggested. Or there might be a difference because of Daylight Savings Time. Use what works.

----------

I have only used the above Strategy in testing.
The tests cover about a half-year worth of time starting the beginning of February, 2014.
The results are in the range of 222 total trades.
Fifteen trades were losses.
I used a multiplier of 13.
I limited my multiplied trades to a max of 10 lots per trade, with the extra 3 added to the following trade.
The ratio was 1:400.
The spread was 2, making each single-lot win 8, and the single-lot losses 92.
There were no multiple-lot losses.
My total winnings were just over $1500 USD.
The largest drawdown was a little over $340 USD, near the beginning of the 6th month.
I consistently get similar results when I run this test.

I'm considering starting a running, free "advisory" here, using a different Strategy, one that is safer, but doesn't earn as much. If I did this, it would be for the purpose of other traders to test with me, to see what results they get. It would be time consuming for me, and so I need to get a feel for how many people might be interested.

U.S. traders might need to team up with someone from a different country, because the U.S. government is such a stickler for keeping their people as poor as they can manage, so they don't allow Stop/Limit, hedging, and scalping. In addition, they have FIFO, First In First Out trading, so that trades have to be closed in the order that they were opened. And, they only allow a 1:50 ratio, making it much longer to win substantial amounts of money.

Once a non-U.S. person sets up an account somewhere, many brokers will allow anybody to do the actual trading. This means that a non-U.S. person can set up the account, while the U.S. person can do the actual trading. If it is the U.S. person who has the funds, he can transfer them to his non-U.S. partner via Bitcoin.

Bitcoin would be a good method to transfer funds and split earnings. It wouldn't be direct, of course. Seems to me that few Forex brokers anywhere use Bitcoin to fund accounts. So, there would have to be some trust involved between the U.S. person and the non-U.S. person.

What does anyone think so far? Should I start the daily advisory with the other Strategy I mentioned?


Smiley


If any of this has been interesting or profitable for you, and you feel you want to donate bitcoins, here is my Bitcoin address: 1NExmDhZCzsszFrDCKyREAb1mdUdZHc3XX. Thanks in advance.

Cure your cancer at home. Ivermectin, fenbendazole, methylene blue, and hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) are chief among parasite drugs. Find out that all disease is based in parasites or pollution, and what you can easily do about it - https://www.huldaclark.com/, https://thedrardisshow.com/, https://thehighwire.com/.
Brewins
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August 06, 2014, 09:39:46 PM
 #2

we have bitcoin and exchanges, why forex?
tooil
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August 06, 2014, 09:43:58 PM
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Most forex brokers are bucket shops.

Hard to win against them if you use leverage and they quote you the price.
BADecker (OP)
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August 06, 2014, 09:48:18 PM
 #4

we have bitcoin and exchanges, why forex?

Why not? since Bitcoin as an investment isn't moving very fast.

If you have a place and a method for winning bitcoins Forex-style, I'm ready. But I don't have a lot to invest.

Thanks in advance.

Smiley

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BADecker (OP)
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August 06, 2014, 09:49:48 PM
 #5

Most forex brokers are bucket shops.

Hard to win against them if you use leverage and they quote you the price.

Actually, that's part of the reason for this topic. I'd like to get results and input from others.

Thanks.

Smiley

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Damnyo
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August 06, 2014, 11:03:07 PM
 #6

Great post, but why gamble with Forex when you can put it all on BTC and wait longer for bigger gains tho?
BADecker (OP)
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August 06, 2014, 11:14:26 PM
 #7

Great post, but why gamble with Forex when you can put it all on BTC and wait longer for bigger gains tho?

This is difficult to answer. If the banking system collapsed today, Bitcoin would probably rocket to the moon and beyond. The problem is, who knows for sure when the banking system will collapse?

My above Strategy has shown promise. And the other one that I mentioned shows much safety along with promise. If I can make more fiat money using the Forex, then I have more fiat money to buy bitcoins.

Personally, like you, I feel that the gamble is in the fiat money. Bitcoin will be strong. But for the moment you can't generally go to the corner grocery store and buy your food with bitcoins. So, we need both. Let's hope that we are ready for the fiat crash when it comes.

Smiley

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Hiraga
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August 07, 2014, 09:05:30 AM
 #8

Learn from the best analists how they read the charts and use indicators (studies). There are plenty video's on youtube. Many patterns are returning situations and if you can understand them it's possible to find most likely scenario's. Ofcourse you can't be always right but if you can do it more often than 50% you make a profit. (If you still have money left after a downswing  Grin)
gordoh
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August 07, 2014, 10:45:42 AM
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In my own personal experience, Forex is the equivalent of gambling. Nobody really knows whats gonna happen next. The only way to win is to either be extremely lucky, or to have loads of cash.

If you really want to go into forex, I would say try Etoro, and follow one of the successful traders so you can learn their strategy before trading on your own. Be careful who you follow though, most successful traders are only successful because they keep putting more money into the trade when they see it isn't going their way. There are only a handful that keep to their stop loss.

I wouldn't advise people to join the forex market unless you are 100% willing to lose your entire investment, because that will most likely be the outcome. Sorry for sounding so negative, but the stats don't lie.

"First rule of Wall Street - Nobody - and I don't care if you're Warren Buffet or Jimmy Buffet - nobody knows if a stock is going up, down or f-ing sideways, least of all stockbrokers. But we have to pretend we know." - Mark Hanna

From The Wolf of wall street
Hiraga
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August 07, 2014, 11:28:44 AM
 #10

Well there certainly are possibilities to try and analyse the likelyhood of a stock going up or down and ofcourse it's not as in 'knowing' where it goes, there's never guarantees.
But for example these days it is more likely that stocks in general will go lower on the midterm since economic sanctions have a growing impact upon the markets. For the same reason you can conclude it is more likely that gold will get more expensive and when stocks go down hard there is more pressure for the US dollar to go up. Hopefully Bitcoin will gain more ground as a commodity to put your money in when stocks go down. Economic drama can certainly be fuel for a rally in crypto's like we've seen with the Cyprus meltdown of banks, the first US$260 top was just weeks after.
BADecker (OP)
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August 08, 2014, 03:02:13 AM
 #11

The reason for scalping is to take some of the edge off the fact that we don't know for sure which way the market is heading. The reason for hedging, and high Stops and low Limits is the same. While we can't predict, the market has always followed certain patterns and mathematical laws. There are other things besides direct predicting that make success feasible. Obviously, if everything went wild, like might happen at the time just before the big fiat crash that is coming, the laws of math that we use might not work for profitability any longer. Not saying that the laws would change. Just saying that there is certain stability and long-range predictability in the way the fiats work. Is this stability something that has been artificially added to the market by the banks, so that they can rape the nations? Probably.

Smiley

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cryptofan5
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August 08, 2014, 03:16:48 AM
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It seems that people trading in bitcoin do not touch forex and vice versa. I wonder why is that? Different psychology?

Hiraga
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August 08, 2014, 07:30:22 AM
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It seems that people trading in bitcoin do not touch forex and vice versa. I wonder why is that? Different psychology?

It's not true really. Many forex brokers have setup btc/usd trading but it's still young. Serious traders and wallstreet have been waiting for more regulatory guidance and confirmation that the use of crypto's is legal. But since FinCen has stated that bitcoin should be treated as a commodity like gold, more big companies have entered the scene, even gold and oil companies have interest and there's several cases of cryptofunds willing to list on large exchanges. Google: forex bitcoin, and you will find a lot.
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August 08, 2014, 07:31:03 AM
Last edit: August 08, 2014, 08:34:21 AM by Lethn
 #14

I remember seeing on a chat room about how happy a guy claiming to be a stock broker/trader was that he could finally trade on weekends lol Tongue
BitcoinZombie
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August 08, 2014, 08:07:37 AM
 #15

Bitcoin is more profitable than forex Cheesy haha
BADecker (OP)
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August 08, 2014, 03:14:36 PM
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Bitcoin is more profitable than forex Cheesy haha

If I started with bitcoin today, show me the better profits.

Smiley

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August 08, 2014, 03:23:40 PM
 #17

Bitcoin is more profitable than forex Cheesy haha

Bitcoin is more volatile. That's why a lot of people who love forex trading are interested in it. The action is simply higher. On the other hand, Bitcoin is still rather small and it's market depth isn't as high as other FIAT currencies. It depends on your trading skills and nerves and not necessarily on what you're actually trading!

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August 08, 2014, 04:01:42 PM
 #18

The way to make a small fortune trading forex on margin is to start with a large fortune.

Time spent on reconnaissance is seldom wasted.
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August 08, 2014, 04:15:04 PM
 #19

The way to make a small fortune trading forex on margin is to start with a large fortune.

Who needs a large fortune if you have leveraged trading??? Hell, it's the FIAT world, just borrow some money and trade the crap outta those forex markets! Leveraged trading really is only for people who know exactly what they're doing and realize they could lose everything!

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BADecker (OP)
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August 08, 2014, 08:06:06 PM
 #20

The way to make a small fortune trading forex on margin is to start with a large fortune.

Who needs a large fortune if you have leveraged trading??? Hell, it's the FIAT world, just borrow some money and trade the crap outta those forex markets! Leveraged trading really is only for people who know exactly what they're doing and realize they could lose everything!

Right! And since it has been shown in many legal documents all over the Net, that when you borrow money, you really are creating it, pay off your loss debt with modern forms of "accepted for value" (creating more debt to pay off other debt, http://educationcenter2000.com/accepted_for_value.html), and then go out and make another loan to do the Forex again.

Search on the words "accepted for value afv a4v" in the DuckDuckGo (https://duckduckgo.com/) search engine.

Smiley

EDIT: http://educationcenter2000.com/Secret_Banker%27s_Manual.pdf.

Cure your cancer at home. Ivermectin, fenbendazole, methylene blue, and hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) are chief among parasite drugs. Find out that all disease is based in parasites or pollution, and what you can easily do about it - https://www.huldaclark.com/, https://thedrardisshow.com/, https://thehighwire.com/.
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