What is more Likely to happen the next couple of months ?

[mmitech]

so what is more likely to happen after the 1w MACD is showing the start of a long bearish market (not negative yet) and that similarity to the stage of a bubble ?

Edit: I have to add that the second scenario was exaggerated, I didn't give allot of attention to the time stamp at the bottom of the chart and I didn't follow the MACD or AO or MFI in both scenarios, I just went with how did it look in my imagination. so 2nd chart should be: cycle 3-4 months and the bottom would be $200-300

1- Do you think that this will explode and somehow magically go up against all the technicals ?






2-Or will it follow the technicals and go even lower but recover in a long and slow period ?

[Schickeria]

I think my newbie status does not give me permission to vote. Both are unlikely. Both are not impossible.

[gjgjg]

Id say option 2. We need a new market to move in to get the price up again. Existing markets already bought all they are going to. So Africa and SAmerica and rest of Asia need to get on board which wont happen for a while imho (~2 years?)

[falllling]

keep going down, bitcoin can only drop from here and might hit $0.00x after the final capitulation

[mmitech]

I think my newbie status does not give me permission to vote. Both are unlikely. Both are not impossible.

I have to add that the second scenario was exaggerated, I didn't see give allot of attention to the time stamp at the bottom of the chart and I didn't follow the MACD or AO or MFI in both scenarios, I just went with how did it look in my imagination. so 2nd chart should be: cycle 3-4 months and the bottom would be $200-300

[Schickeria]

I think my newbie status does not give me permission to vote. Both are unlikely. Both are not impossible.

I have to add that the second scenario was exaggerated, I didn't see give allot of attention to the time stamp at the bottom of the chart and I didn't follow the MACD or AO or MFI in both scenarios, I just went with how did it look in my imagination. so 2nd chart should be: cycle 3-4 months and the bottom would be $200-300

That's how I see it. Even it could go down into the ~300. Of course, bearisher (and bullisher) scenarios are possible, but in my eyes lesser probable. I see it more as a rough orientation, not a prediction.

Edit: oh, I see your first chart is similar ;-)



Well, I will deepen my impression of the current market situation here since this Wall Observer Thread cracks me up.

In the past months we had a lot of of people supposing an accelerated trendline. I could never see this trendline before 2014, where it got quickly broken. The former touches of this non-existing trendline, were carried by older, both (5x) proven and mature trendlines.

The price was driven high by expectation of a soon incoming bubble. This expection was slowly destroyed from 680,00 downwards. After breaking the imaginary accelerated trendline and the hope of an incoming bubble, frustration has taken the place of hope. People started to sell and the stone begun to roll downwards, now building up his own dynamic.

I think the bigger money(institutional buyers etc.) is waiting on lower support levels. First support is given in the ~400, but I don't see that the fall must stop there. I think somewhere between 440-300 the price will be caught up.

All the talk of manipulation conspiracies...to me it does not look more than, simple price had no support at this levels (for now) and a few clever players are making money with delusional hot bullish fever.

The posted scenario is my favorite. But as I said earlier, there are lot more possible ways market could go, even the extremely bearish ones. I see no reason to fulfill such horrible scenario, but one could be simple: overspeculation in the past years.  I don't think so, but who knows.

[Octavius]

I would say a similar pattern, although not with the same timing.

[mmitech]

I think my newbie status does not give me permission to vote. Both are unlikely. Both are not impossible.

I have to add that the second scenario was exaggerated, I didn't see give allot of attention to the time stamp at the bottom of the chart and I didn't follow the MACD or AO or MFI in both scenarios, I just went with how did it look in my imagination. so 2nd chart should be: cycle 3-4 months and the bottom would be $200-300

That's how I see it. Could go down even into the ~300. Of course, bearisher (and bullisher) scenarios are possible, but in my eyes lesser probable. I see it more as a rough orientation, not a prediction.

Edit: oh, I see your first chart is similar ;-)

yes, I edited the first post to clarify.

[Miz4r]

None of them will happen I think. This is just a small purging of the market due to too many people expecting a bubble for months now and their delusional talk about buying cars, expensive vacations and castles with their massive profits. Fundamentals look really good though but the current exchange infrastructure still sucks too hard, not many people want to send their money to an exchange so there is a general lack of fiat on there and this does not help the price. Merchant adoption doesn't help either, we need something to improve this infrastructure so it's easier for people to buy coins and they don't have to fear losing their money like in the MtGox disaster. Something like an ETF or NASDAQ exchange. Until then the market will stay mostly flat but I do think the current price is pretty cheap so I will pick up some more coins soon. I don't believe we will go lower than 450 though.

[Ayers]

similar to 2014, with some spike here and there, august is surely bad for a pump, i don't remember, but there was ever a pump in august in the others years?

[piramida]

Option 3, stay in 400-600 for a month or two more then slowly start accelerating and explode in the autumn. whatever it is, your graph #2 is funny and surely won't happen.

Also I know that most people here don't know the great buy-in price even when they are hit with one on the head, like right now. Waiting for sub-$400 coins would be quite a tedious adventure, and while it might still happen you sure should not blink much or you might miss it.

[Xer0]

3. drop lover and never recover

[mmitech]

Well, I will deepen my impression of the current market situation a bit. This Wall Observer Thread cracks me up.

In the past months we had a lot of of people supposing an accelerated trendline. I could never see this trendline before 2014, where it got quickly broken. The former touches of this non-existing trendline, were carried by an older,(5x) proven and maturate trendline.

The price was driven high by expectation of a soon incoming bubble. This expection was slowly destroyed from 680,00 downwards. After breaking the imaginary accelerated trendline and the hope of an incoming bubble, frustration has taken the place of hope. People started to sell and the stone begun to roll downwards now building up his own dynamic.

I think the bigger money(institutional buyer etc.) is waiting on lower support levels. First support is given in the ~400, but I don't see that the fall must stop there. I think somewhere between 440-300 the price will be caught up.

All the talk of manipulation conspiracies to me does not look more than, simple price had no support at this levels (for now) and a few clever players are making money with delusional hot bullish fever.

The posted scenario is my favorite probable. But as I said earlier, there are lot more possible ways market will go, even the extremely bearish ones. I see no reason to fulfill such horrible scenario, but one could be simple: overspeculation in the past years.

I agree with that, let me add a quote from Risto's thread before Risto delete it (he like to do that)

I'm starting to be pessimistic about it all, and I even think we may not witness next Bitcoin bubble in near future... Here's why:

• All the geeks and early adopters are in. Who is still left-out is ignorant mass which can't comprehend Bitcoin incentives over Paypal, nor they can see it actually heals the worldwide economy. Yes, we're waiting for a big investors too, but I doubt they will enter such unregulated market which is public enemy nr. 1 of states and banking system. Finally, billionares are billionares just because of the corrupted fiat money system, and actually they kind of chopping off the branch they're sitting on.
• Price of Bitcoin: new Bitcoins are released every day and we need about 1.5mil$/day just to keep the price stagnant. It's really not the same like Bitcoin was 100$ before the previous bubble. Much more fiat is needed to fuel the rise. You can see it as 5x more people is needed to be aware of it all. I doubt there is 5x more people in cryptos now than there were in October 2013.
• Remember, previous Bitcoin bubble was fuelled mostly by Mt.Gox failure (someone artificially made USD credit on their site and was constantly buying) + "China is coming" effect. Those were 2 big (positive) circumstances, and it was pure luck for Bitcoin's price, so it wasn't too much about the real demand, it was about stealing and speculator's game.
• Too many altcoin parasites which are dispersing energy (and money). Actually I realised maybe even it would be better for worldwide economy that Bitcoin stayed closed source, forged in honest very small community of most advanced developers.
• Big holders may decide that they exit the game and effectively kill the price to the ground. Specially, I am affraid of 1 mil BTC owned by Satoshi. Would be good for Bitcoin if he is not among us anymore so the private keys are lost

Sadly, I realize Bitcoin is "liberalist wet dream", but can easiliy failed one. Combination of ignorant mass which is easily manipulated + interests of elite that is state and banksters, and I see it may really stay on the margin of worldwide economy, say it takes only about 10-20% of electronic payments and money transfers worldwide. That's not a win, that is huge fail compared to what we were thinking it may become.

So I played the Devil's advocate this time, and ask me what do I think about alts? Right now, they're fuckin' dead, including "silver to bitcoin's gold". Only chance for them is to rise along with Bitcoin. Astronomic rise of Darkcoin was not the healthy demand by the masses for spending it, it was speculator's game. After the initial boom and crash, we will see a slow decline, every fairly successful altcoin has the same history and future: One bubble and then the second one purely dependent on Bitcoin.

That was just my analysis and discussion is welcome. I just don't wanna hear I'm trolling or fudding, believe me I'm the one who was tirelessly promoting the whole story from the early days of 2012, and I made quite bucks out from it, but I'm starting to thing the "golden age" of cryptos is over.

Community is not focused and I doubt we can heal the economy and win the war this way.

of course I don't agree to "the crypto is over" thing, but think he addressed solid points.

[bigtimespaghetti]

Well, I will deepen my impression of the current market situation here since this Wall Observer Thread cracks me up.

In the past months we had a lot of of people supposing an accelerated trendline. I could never see this trendline before 2014, where it got quickly broken. The former touches of this non-existing trendline, were carried by an older,(5x) proven and mature trendline.

The price was driven high by expectation of a soon incoming bubble. This expection was slowly destroyed from 680,00 downwards. After breaking the imaginary accelerated trendline and the hope of an incoming bubble, frustration has taken the place of hope. People started to sell and the stone begun to roll downwards now building up his own dynamic.

I think the bigger money(institutional buyer etc.) is waiting on lower support levels. First support is given in the ~400, but I don't see that the fall must stop there. I think somewhere between 440-300 the price will be caught up.

All the talk of manipulation conspiracies to me does not look more than, simple price had no support at this levels (for now) and a few clever players are making money with delusional hot bullish fever.

The posted scenario is my favorite. But as I said earlier, there are lot more possible ways market could go, even the extremely bearish ones. I see no reason to fulfill such horrible scenario, but one could be simple: overspeculation in the past years.

Nice summary. The manipulation stories are just that - stories. No way to know for sure. This break down is technical. But I don't know where the bottom is. My guess would be 420-450. So given that I'm often wrong, maybe 400!

[Schickeria]

of course I don't agree to "the crypto is over" thing, but think he addressed solid points.

Reading topics on this subboard makes a really terrible impression to me. Can you see how maniac a lot members are? Can you see it? Not the smallest part of their brain has place for any downward momentum. If you tell them it could go down only 5,00$ they will call you a stupid bear! If you tell them it could go even lower they are able to kill you! They are only shouting, cheering and being astonished when price does not do what it was supposed to do.

Of course, not all people here, but the majority.

We are playing this maniac now in a very small room, where a few nerds and venture capitalists are in. If bitcoin will proceed his journey, I could imagine that in a couple of years we play this game of maniac at least once globally.

Can you imagine where the price will go if this disease of blindness to one direction will infect the world? Or only a part of it? The game has just started, and of course it could end very quickly.

But if not...and the journey will proceed there will be a never seen spike, that will let see our current growth like a dwarf, quite likely followed by an equal gigantic decline.

[mmitech]

of course I don't agree to "the crypto is over" thing, but think he addressed solid points.

Reading topics on this subboard makes a really terrible impression to me. Can you see how maniac a lot members are? Can you see it? Not the smallest part of their brain has a place for any downward momentum. If you tell them it could go down only 5,00$ they will call you a stupid bear! If you tell them it could go even lower they are able to kill you! They are only shouting, cheering and being astonished when price does not do what it was supposed to do.

Of course, not all people here, but the majority.

We are playing this maniac now in a very small room, where a few nerds and venture capitalists are in. If bitcoin will proceed his journey, I could imagine that in a couple of years we play this game of maniac at least once globally.

Can you imagine where the price will go if this disease of blindness to one direction will infect the world? Or only a part of it? The game has just started, and of course it could end very quickly.

But if not...and the journey will proceed there will be a never seen spike, that will let see our current growth like a dwarf, quite likely followed by an equal gigantic decline.

there is nothing perfect out there, but everything depends on your ability to make good calls that can benefit your position, right now cryptos are what I do to put food on the table, I did quit my job mainly for this and I don't care about hdolers or perma-bulls or perma-bears I change my sentiments depending on market signals and as long as I am able to make calls and be confident about them I will still be able to put food on the table for my kids.

[derpinheimer]

Voted option 3, ment for number 2.. although both work, cuz I expect a bull trap, then what you drew.

[giveBTCpls]

All it takes is ebay to get in the game for once, everyone will be aware of the "pay with bitcoin" option and it will explode. This is personally for me the idea of how bitcoin will really take off, all kind of tv news ill ensue.

[Benjig]

Id say option 2. We need a new market to move in to get the price up again. Existing markets already bought all they are going to. So Africa and SAmerica and rest of Asia need to get on board which wont happen for a while imho (~2 years?)

So you are assuming that Usa and Europe people have all btcs? Lol this is ridiculous.. one thing is that almost all the people have heard about bitcoin and other is that they are participating actively in the market.. most of them dont own any bitcoin and that can change with some triggers.

[Razick]

I said none of those because I think somewhere in between, but for now closer to number 2.

Here's my course prediction chart: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=737308.msg8334672#msg8334672