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Author Topic: Will INCREASED adoption DECREASE price per coin?  (Read 2291 times)
DrBitcoin (OP)
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August 16, 2014, 08:28:54 PM
 #1

I am reading articles about how increased adoption of Bitcoin may actually decrease its price. I've heard that these businesses, like Overstock, instantly convert Bitcoins right to USD, and therefor this somehow decreases the prices.

Conventional wisdom would suggest that increased adoption increases the price... But adoption has increased and the price is down over its high of $1200. Obviously MANY factors contribute to its price.

I'm HODLING... And I have a lot of buy orders in the 400-300 range. I picked off some 490 coins yesterday.

Anyways...can someone argue for and against this theory?
esse83
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August 16, 2014, 08:41:43 PM
 #2

I am reading articles about how increased adoption of Bitcoin may actually decrease its price. I've heard that these businesses, like Overstock, instantly convert Bitcoins right to USD, and therefor this somehow decreases the prices.

Conventional wisdom would suggest that increased adoption increases the price... But adoption has increased and the price is down over its high of $1200. Obviously MANY factors contribute to its price.

I'm HODLING... And I have a lot of buy orders in the 400-300 range. I picked off some 490 coins yesterday.

Anyways...can someone argue for and against this theory?

Well, let me give you a short answer, consumers don't have much reason to buy btc for the sole purpose of spending it. Now, on the other hand, merchants got a very good reason to adopt bitcoin (lower fees). If anyone can provide a killer argument for why consumers ought to buy btc (to spend) instead of just using their CC, then please do so. That argument would have to have a broad appeal. So pls, no conspiracy nuts claiming the dollar will die, etc. The general public don't care about that.

“Bitcoin is wild and crazy investment that I’m diversifying out of all the time,” - Gavin Andresen
An amorous cow-herder
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August 16, 2014, 09:08:34 PM
 #3

If anyone can provide a killer argument for why consumers ought to buy btc (to spend) instead of just using their CC, then please do so.
Thats the thing i also dont see anywhere. And well, that a pretty cruicial piece.

That argument would have to have a broad appeal. So pls, no conspiracy nuts claiming the dollar will die, etc. The general public don't care about that.
The "dollar will die" argument always makes me laugh. The whole financial system and government breaks down, but sure, the ISPs will just keep the internet going in that apocalyptic scenario ...
Stery
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August 16, 2014, 09:17:58 PM
 #4

There is not much movement as the prices still stuck little above the $500 mark
Benjig
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August 16, 2014, 09:32:59 PM
 #5

I am reading articles about how increased adoption of Bitcoin may actually decrease its price. I've heard that these businesses, like Overstock, instantly convert Bitcoins right to USD, and therefor this somehow decreases the prices.

Conventional wisdom would suggest that increased adoption increases the price... But adoption has increased and the price is down over its high of $1200. Obviously MANY factors contribute to its price.

I'm HODLING... And I have a lot of buy orders in the 400-300 range. I picked off some 490 coins yesterday.

Anyways...can someone argue for and against this theory?

But if many people start seeing the discounts offered by merchants if you buy with bitcoin, im sure some people will be interested in buying btcs to purchase goods.
DrBitcoin (OP)
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August 16, 2014, 09:34:18 PM
 #6

I am reading articles about how increased adoption of Bitcoin may actually decrease its price. I've heard that these businesses, like Overstock, instantly convert Bitcoins right to USD, and therefor this somehow decreases the prices.

Conventional wisdom would suggest that increased adoption increases the price... But adoption has increased and the price is down over its high of $1200. Obviously MANY factors contribute to its price.

I'm HODLING... And I have a lot of buy orders in the 400-300 range. I picked off some 490 coins yesterday.

Anyways...can someone argue for and against this theory?

Well, let me give you a short answer, consumers don't have much reason to buy btc for the sole purpose of spending it. Now, on the other hand, merchants got a very good reason to adopt bitcoin (lower fees). If anyone can provide a killer argument for why consumers ought to buy btc (to spend) instead of just using their CC, then please do so. That argument would have to have a broad appeal. So pls, no conspiracy nuts claiming the dollar will die, etc. The general public don't care about that.

Personally...I would much prefer credit cards over bitcoin. if I charge something on Amex, I get consumer protection, I pay no fees, and I get a month to pay it off.

As a business OWNER...bitcoin is better than credit cards. No fees, instant money in the bank.

If someone combines Bitcoin with some sort of credit card features (fraud protection, insurance, delayed payment, no fee transactions) that would be awsome.
esse83
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August 16, 2014, 09:53:56 PM
Last edit: August 16, 2014, 10:05:09 PM by esse83
 #7

I am reading articles about how increased adoption of Bitcoin may actually decrease its price. I've heard that these businesses, like Overstock, instantly convert Bitcoins right to USD, and therefor this somehow decreases the prices.

Conventional wisdom would suggest that increased adoption increases the price... But adoption has increased and the price is down over its high of $1200. Obviously MANY factors contribute to its price.

I'm HODLING... And I have a lot of buy orders in the 400-300 range. I picked off some 490 coins yesterday.

Anyways...can someone argue for and against this theory?

Well, let me give you a short answer, consumers don't have much reason to buy btc for the sole purpose of spending it. Now, on the other hand, merchants got a very good reason to adopt bitcoin (lower fees). If anyone can provide a killer argument for why consumers ought to buy btc (to spend) instead of just using their CC, then please do so. That argument would have to have a broad appeal. So pls, no conspiracy nuts claiming the dollar will die, etc. The general public don't care about that.


Personally...I would much prefer credit cards over bitcoin. if I charge something on Amex, I get consumer protection, I pay no fees, and I get a month to pay it off.

As a business OWNER...bitcoin is better than credit cards. No fees, instant money in the bank.

If someone combines Bitcoin with some sort of credit card features (fraud protection, insurance, delayed payment, no fee transactions) that would be awsome.

Indeed, now let's just wait and see if any of the bulls can provide the argument that is found wanted. I have been here since summer of 2011 and have yet to see it. I believe there is a good reason for that. Now, why doesn't the price react to good news? Most likely because the majority of bitcoiners understand this.

“Bitcoin is wild and crazy investment that I’m diversifying out of all the time,” - Gavin Andresen
Benjig
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August 16, 2014, 10:02:17 PM
 #8

I am reading articles about how increased adoption of Bitcoin may actually decrease its price. I've heard that these businesses, like Overstock, instantly convert Bitcoins right to USD, and therefor this somehow decreases the prices.

Conventional wisdom would suggest that increased adoption increases the price... But adoption has increased and the price is down over its high of $1200. Obviously MANY factors contribute to its price.

I'm HODLING... And I have a lot of buy orders in the 400-300 range. I picked off some 490 coins yesterday.

Anyways...can someone argue for and against this theory?

Well, let me give you a short answer, consumers don't have much reason to buy btc for the sole purpose of spending it. Now, on the other hand, merchants got a very good reason to adopt bitcoin (lower fees). If anyone can provide a killer argument for why consumers ought to buy btc (to spend) instead of just using their CC, then please do so. That argument would have to have a broad appeal. So pls, no conspiracy nuts claiming the dollar will die, etc. The general public don't care about that.

Personally...I would much prefer credit cards over bitcoin. if I charge something on Amex, I get consumer protection, I pay no fees, and I get a month to pay it off.

As a business OWNER...bitcoin is better than credit cards. No fees, instant money in the bank.

If someone combines Bitcoin with some sort of credit card features (fraud protection, insurance, delayed payment, no fee transactions) that would be awsome.

And as a business owner you also have the advantage to protect you from fraud of stolen credit cards/disputes , as a bitcoin transaction is like cash, irreversible.
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August 16, 2014, 10:17:16 PM
 #9

The only way I could imagine this being the case is if people had no incentive to save and coins.  The limited supply makes it so this won't happen for long if there is such a demand. 
BuildTheFuture
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August 16, 2014, 10:19:25 PM
 #10

Speaking as a consumer, if a business would offer me 1% or more extra discount vs what I can achieve using credit card points, then I would switch to paying with BTC, assuming I can get the BTC at-cost via something like Circle. I'd be willing to switch in 99% of my online purchasing. I know without hesitation that the reputable online stores I generally purchase from like Amazon are not going to rip me off, so I'd rather save the extra percent or two. The only case I might be hesitant is some really obscure website that I've never bought from.

So once I get my Circle invite I'm planning to start buying a bunch of those 3% off gift cards and use those for most of my spending. I'm guessing this idea may be starting to take off as you can see in the recent surge in BTC transactions:

https://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions-excluding-popular?showDataPoints=false&timespan=2year&show_header=true&daysAverageString=7&scale=0&address=
BuildTheFuture
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August 16, 2014, 10:22:21 PM
 #11

I used to own an online shop and between the credit card fees, anti-fraud systems you have to shell out for, and the fraudulent chargebacks the cost of taking a card for payment is easily over 5% for many web stores. I'm sure once they get comfy with BTC you will see more and more of them willing to split this windfall of savings with their customers in order to encourage more of them to stop using cards.
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August 16, 2014, 11:03:51 PM
 #12

I used to own an online shop and between the credit card fees, anti-fraud systems you have to shell out for, and the fraudulent chargebacks the cost of taking a card for payment is easily over 5% for many web stores. I'm sure once they get comfy with BTC you will see more and more of them willing to split this windfall of savings with their customers in order to encourage more of them to stop using cards.

Bitcoin has irreversable transactions and lower fees

If you own an online business you don't pay when someone use a credit card fraudulently you (usually) just pay a hefty fee on each transaction
BuildTheFuture
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August 16, 2014, 11:33:02 PM
 #13

Wrong, when a a consumer pays for something on your site with a card, then they receive the item and then call their card company to falsely claim they didn't actually get it (even though the tracking and even signature show they got it), the consumer always wins credit card online chargebacks and the money is removed from the merchant's bank account (plus a hefty chargeback fee). Huge pain the ass for online merchants.
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August 17, 2014, 01:50:09 AM
 #14

I am reading articles about how increased adoption of Bitcoin may actually decrease its price. I've heard that these businesses, like Overstock, instantly convert Bitcoins right to USD, and therefor this somehow decreases the prices.

Conventional wisdom would suggest that increased adoption increases the price... But adoption has increased and the price is down over its high of $1200. Obviously MANY factors contribute to its price.

I'm HODLING... And I have a lot of buy orders in the 400-300 range. I picked off some 490 coins yesterday.

Anyways...can someone argue for and against this theory?

Well, let me give you a short answer, consumers don't have much reason to buy btc for the sole purpose of spending it. Now, on the other hand, merchants got a very good reason to adopt bitcoin (lower fees). If anyone can provide a killer argument for why consumers ought to buy btc (to spend) instead of just using their CC, then please do so. That argument would have to have a broad appeal. So pls, no conspiracy nuts claiming the dollar will die, etc. The general public don't care about that.

Merchants passing some of the savings of the lower fees and nonreversibility on to consumers by providing discounts for using bitcoins.
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August 17, 2014, 02:14:34 AM
 #15

I am reading articles about how increased adoption of Bitcoin may actually decrease its price. I've heard that these businesses, like Overstock, instantly convert Bitcoins right to USD, and therefor this somehow decreases the prices.

Conventional wisdom would suggest that increased adoption increases the price... But adoption has increased and the price is down over its high of $1200. Obviously MANY factors contribute to its price.

I'm HODLING... And I have a lot of buy orders in the 400-300 range. I picked off some 490 coins yesterday.

Anyways...can someone argue for and against this theory?

Well, let me give you a short answer, consumers don't have much reason to buy btc for the sole purpose of spending it. Now, on the other hand, merchants got a very good reason to adopt bitcoin (lower fees). If anyone can provide a killer argument for why consumers ought to buy btc (to spend) instead of just using their CC, then please do so. That argument would have to have a broad appeal. So pls, no conspiracy nuts claiming the dollar will die, etc. The general public don't care about that.

Personally...I would much prefer credit cards over bitcoin. if I charge something on Amex, I get consumer protection, I pay no fees, and I get a month to pay it off.

As a business OWNER...bitcoin is better than credit cards. No fees, instant money in the bank.

If someone combines Bitcoin with some sort of credit card features (fraud protection, insurance, delayed payment, no fee transactions) that would be awsome.

Thats what PAYPAL is aiming at.
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August 17, 2014, 02:27:12 AM
 #16

I am reading articles about how increased adoption of Bitcoin may actually decrease its price. I've heard that these businesses, like Overstock, instantly convert Bitcoins right to USD, and therefor this somehow decreases the prices.

Conventional wisdom would suggest that increased adoption increases the price... But adoption has increased and the price is down over its high of $1200. Obviously MANY factors contribute to its price.

I'm HODLING... And I have a lot of buy orders in the 400-300 range. I picked off some 490 coins yesterday.

Anyways...can someone argue for and against this theory?

I agree that adoption in terms of merchant acceptance WILL drive price down initially. New buyers/users of btc are NOT coming into the market at anywhere near the rate that new merchants are accepting btc (and mostly converting instantly to fiat). A LOT of consumer education needs to be done still to allow user adoption to grow at the pace merchant acceptance is growing. So, now I officially will not be surprised if the price tumbles slightly further, but not "crashing"
Malin Keshar
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August 17, 2014, 02:31:10 AM
 #17

Depends on your time frame.

Short and medium, it may hurt the price, because they will most likely just dump them as soon the buy is made.

Longer time frame = more people will be interested on Bitcoin, more people will hold Bitcoin, including business, more people will put BTC in their investment portfolio.

Just be patient
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August 17, 2014, 03:25:33 AM
 #18

the real killer app for bitcoin is cross border internet orders. Here in Oz i pay about 3 -4 % over the odds in currency conversion, which when buying things like laptops is a big hit. At the moment all the businesses accepting bitcoin only accept for USA customers, which is silly. There is no reason for US customers to buy bitcoin to then buy stock,  rather than just using CC. For the rest of the world though, for example, a DELL laptop is 25 - 40% cheaper in the USA than Oz, so it is very much worth paying with BTC, avoiding the high cost of ordering from DELL Oz, and also avoiding the exchange rip off that paypal imposes. Obviously Dell wants to be able to charge more for stuff they sell here, but going forward, I can see everything being sold from one location, as BTC means you dont have to worry about all the hassles with processing overseas credit cards.

Bitcoin is the greatest form of protest there is. Vote in the only way that really counts: with your money.
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August 17, 2014, 03:52:36 AM
 #19

It's tough to make a reasonable case for increased adoption decreasing price per coin.

Remember that there is ultimately a limited supply, here.  This ain't fiat, where they just fire up the printing presses to make more.

The thought that merchants will just trade them in immediately may or may not be true.  I'd suspect it is not.  Companies like Coca Cola have teams of people who run hedging strategies for them because they do business in something like 70 currencies.  They don't immediately trade all Peruvian Nuevo Sols, as an example, for USD.  there are probably some accounts payable or payroll that they simply pay in received Nuevo Sol.  (Which may or may not eventually happen with BTC.)  They move money around when and how it is beneficial. 

But even if they do offload BTC quickly, even most of the time, this is still a money supply issue.  Replace BTC in your mind with gold bars.  If there were only, say, 1000 of these particular gold bars that were accepted by retailers, and even if they turned around and sold them for cash pretty much immediately, the fact that they are transferable and finite would give them value.  Shit, forget they are gold.  Pretend they are balsa wood or something without otherwise-assigned value.  There is no way they become less valuable when more people accept them.  Hell, just imagine the accounts are settled at the end of every business day, and you would still have tons of simple system float that would raise the value.
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August 17, 2014, 12:20:24 PM
 #20

I'm a newbie at crypto-speculation and I've also noticed the same thing: If an increased adoption result to an increase in price, then why does the opposite thing happen? Is it because of the faint-hearted bagholders that tend to panic sell whenever there are some rumors or is it because there are some tricks happening that are controlled by those whales? I'm confused o.O

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