Crypto Trading Diary

[Trade-Winds]

I am a trader with a technical analysis background and in recent months got involved in crypto. I am going to use this thread to discuss and share my crypto trading activities using the following starting point:

Trading Float: $5,000
Trading Approach: Short term (hours / days max)
Exchange: CEX.IO
Products to Trade: BTC/US$, BTC/GHS, Other Crypto Pairs as required

I have an account at CEX and did well enough buying their Futures product FHM which I described here https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=730666.msg8263659#msg8263659 I am using that pot of money in this exercise.

My aim is to share the trades I intend to take, reasons for taking a trade, entry points and exit points either for profit or loss. I'll track the trade outcomes and post all the details in this thread. This won't be a 'I took a trade yesterday and made $1K' anyone can do that, it will be more like 'If the BTC/$ price hits X I will buy with a profit target of Y and a stop loss of Z.' with the reasoning behind it. I'll also share methods I am using and if anyone wants to ask questions or tell me I am dumb etc  then all comments welcomed.

Why am I doing this? Well I am trading anyway and I always find sharing and documenting this sort of activity is great for learning, discipline and a bit of enjoyment. Trading can be a lonely game, so this sort of interaction is also good for motivation.

[Keyara]

Price is at 490, is it time to buy, sell or hold?

[dropt]

Cool beans.  I might recommend making this a self moderated topic or it'll likely go off the rails from the ridiculous amount of trolls that inhabit these parts.

[Bitcopia]

I look forward to what I hope will be some quality TA, as this forum is lacking. "Ryan's log" thread has high quality EW analysis on it, but I'm not very knowledgable or interested in that approach. What indicators/ signals are you working with?

Cool beans.  I might recommend making this a self moderated topic or it'll likely go off the rails from the ridiculous amount of trolls that inhabit these parts.

I second this suggestion.

[Trade-Winds]

I look forward to what I hope will be some quality TA, as this forum is lacking. "Ryan's log" thread has high quality EW analysis on it, but I'm not very knowledgable or interested in that approach. What indicators/ signals are you working with?

Cool beans.  I might recommend making this a self moderated topic or it'll likely go off the rails from the ridiculous amount of trolls that inhabit these parts.

Thanks for the comments guys. Self moderated I hadn't considered that, actually don't know how to set it either

Going to keep it relatively simple, will be using support / resistance, trend-lines, averages, channels, MACD, ATR etc. I will post charts with analysis on and comment to them. I am keen to take comments and questions.

Right now in this CEX trading account I am in cash. I am watching BTC/$US to see if the $485 area is a bottom that will hold and set up a trade-able run to the low $500's or whether it will not support. Right now it kind of looks like it will go lower. So currently on the sidelines looking for confirmation and reason for entry.

[Trade-Winds]

Price is at 490, is it time to buy, sell or hold?

For me right now time to watch only. Also depends on what you are trying to do. In this thread it is a short term trading activity, the answer would be different if you had long term goal or in fact if you had no goal!!

[Xiaoxiao]

No, it is likely to go lower.  Doesn't look like a hold at all.

[Buo]

Good luck with your investments.
I will follow your advice because I'm new in trading but I want to play the market with few coins.

[srgkrgkj]

price at $480 now

[Trade-Winds]

There is a definable descending channel on BTC/USD$ now since the fall off $590 area from Aug 12th. I have posted my reading of the channel in an hourly chart showing trade-able opportunity to exploit the potential trading range within the channel. It's not a high probability trade, but at the same time it is relative low risk as a logical stop loss would take you out if the consolidation below $450 fails signalling back to the lower channel area.

Not taking this trade yet (just presenting an idea), still watching the price action.

[RyNinDaCleM]

There is a definable descending channel on BTC/USD$ now since the fall off $590 area from Aug 12th. I have posted my reading of the channel in an hourly chart showing trade-able opportunity to exploit the potential trading range within the channel. It's not a high probability trade, but at the same time it is relative low risk as a logical stop loss would take you out if the consolidation below $450 fails signalling back to the lower channel area.

Not taking this trade yet (just presenting an idea), still watching the price action.

First, welcome to the forum! Edit: I guess you've been here for a few months

That would be a high risk:reward ratio, no? Similar to entering a trade in the middle of the BB where price is equidistant from top and bottom. It could really go either way!
Now, if you open at the lower and sell at the upper with a stop just below the lower trend line, this would seem like better R:R ratio to me :/

Carry on!
I'm interested to see how this all comes along

[Trade-Winds]

That would be a high risk:reward ratio, no? Similar to entering a trade in the middle of the BB where price is equidistant from top and bottom. It could really go either way!
Now, if you open at the lower and sell at the upper with a stop just below the lower trend line, this would seem like better R:R ratio to me :/

Yep agreed, better outcome possible trading nearer the defined channel edges / bands. This is why I am just showing it as an idea. as I said it can be low $ risk due to the nearness of the logical exit, plus that $450 area is acting as decent support for the moment. Thanks for the comments, I see you are very comprehensive and active in your analysis I will check it out.

[Trade-Winds]

There is a definable descending channel on BTC/USD$ now since the fall off $590 area from Aug 12th. I have posted my reading of the channel in an hourly chart showing trade-able opportunity to exploit the potential trading range within the channel. It's not a high probability trade, but at the same time it is relative low risk as a logical stop loss would take you out if the consolidation below $450 fails signalling back to the lower channel area.

Not taking this trade yet (just presenting an idea), still watching the price action.

Updating the channel trade idea with close stop. I have updated the chart as if I were trading it. As stated this trade I didn't take but updating outcome for all to see. As per chart I would move stop up to break-even point and let the trade progress some more, essentially I would now have a free trade (risk covered). This approach would enable me to take a new position if I wanted without increasing my risk of loss more than the new risk + the possible loss of profit in the first trade. The alternate approach is close out trade at the target area with about 5% profit (Entry $465, Exit $485 ish).

[Wilhelm]

Is it me or is it foolish to go long in a downtrend like this

You are lucky you hit what looks like a W formation (trend change).

Btw I'm also a newbie trader

[Trade-Winds]

Is it me or is it foolish to go long in a downtrend like this

You are lucky you hit what looks like a W formation (trend change).

Btw I'm also a newbie trader

Not foolish if you trade with a defined plan and strategy. That includes analysis, reason and justification for entry and exit (loss or profit). Correct risk management relative to your tolerance and portfolio size, then it is trading.

All trades are risky, you use the tools at your disposal to mitigate the risk and manage your actions.

There was no luck involved, I outlined the trade plan in detail. If it had been a loser the loss would have been controlled and just part of the business of trading.

Good luck with your trades and thanks for the comments.

[SecureErase]

Updating the channel trade idea with close stop. I have updated the chart as if I were trading it. As stated this trade I didn't take but updating outcome for all to see. As per chart I would move stop up to break-even point and let the trade progress some more, essentially I would now have a free trade (risk covered). This approach would enable me to take a new position if I wanted without increasing my risk of loss more than the new risk + the possible loss of profit in the first trade. The alternate approach is close out trade at the target area with about 5% profit (Entry $465, Exit $485 ish).

Great description of how to trade with a disciplined professional way, breath of fresh air compared to the majority of comments in this speculation forum. Keep it up.

[Trade-Winds]

Great description of how to trade with a disciplined professional way, breath of fresh air compared to the majority of comments in this speculation forum. Keep it up.

Thanks  

This channel trade has now reached the channel top, so if I were actively trading it the lowest risk option would be to close out the trade and take the profit, alternate approach would be to move stop loss up a bit and trail the price a couple of candles back (below is a 4 hour chart) in case of breakout.
Interesting to see what develops here, if price moves out of the drawn channel then the channel pattern is busted and we start all over again. Breaking $500 area resistance will require some buying volume to come in.

[Trade-Winds]

This channel trade has now reached the channel top, so if I were actively trading it the lowest risk option would be to close out the trade and take the profit

Channels are a powerful trading ally.

[Trade-Winds]

Position Sizing and knowing your risk

Interested to hear how traders work out their trade risk when trading? Do you just buy in and worry later when you see your account turn a bit red? Or do you use tools to help?

For me I use a simple spreadsheet that I enter my trade plan into (Qty to buy, price, stop loss, profit target) then I get an immediate picture of the trade and its possible outcomes. I can then tweak the trade parameters until I am comfortable with the risk. I also use it during a trade to adjust and monitor so that anytime I know what my risk is if the trade goes against me or for me.

Screenshot of the sheet below with some notes as to what it shows.

[Trade-Winds]

Updating the next possible phase of BTC/USD$ price movement and watching for tradeable set-ups.