Crypto Trading Diary

[Trade-Winds]

[Trade-Winds]

Nothing definitive in current price action other than $530 area being the ceiling and $490 area being floor. Sideways channel between these points is emerging. Buying in the low $500's / high $490's is a relatively safe proposition based on current price action.

[Trade-Winds]

Buying 5 BTC:

Average price of $510.
Stop is $494.
Target around $550 to be adjusted.
Risk $80

[Trade-Winds]

BTC/USD$ Trade Update:

Price pushed on so confirmed reason for entry. This 1 hour chart shows the trading situation. The ascending support line guides the direction. I will trail my stop behind the price action / ascending support. It now sits at $499. If price can break $516 then it should move on next to $530 resistance area. Will update as trade progresses.

Edit: Adjusted stop below ascending support to $504

[apachebalou]

Very interesting thread, definitely following this! Nice with some honesty for a change.
So I have been following crypto for a while, but is new to technical trading, so please forgive me for newbie questions.

So how do you decide the stop level? I saw in your excel sheet that you put the stop level 3 % under current value. Do you calculate that percentage in relation to market volatility or something? I guess I have the same question for the exit region.

Also, do the fact that the 515 level seems to have some resistance alter your current strategy?

[darkcond0]

Do you have any recommendations for good resources that I could study to better understand the basics of your decisions?  I'm new to all this, seems very interesting.

[minerpumpkin]

This is a very interesting approach! I think a lot of people should just go and try their strategies on (public?) virtual portfolios, so that people can see whose strategy (or wild guessing) is best! Is there a site to do this?

[adamstgBit]

Do you have any recommendations for good resources that I could study to better understand the basics of your decisions?  I'm new to all this, seems very interesting.

draws the lines using previous tops and bottoms, its not that hard really.  the way i learnt it was just by watching these types of threads, for a while, eventually you get it.

Very interesting thread, definitely following this! Nice with some honesty for a change.
So I have been following crypto for a while, but is new to technical trading, so please forgive me for newbie questions.

So how do you decide the stop level? I saw in your excel sheet that you put the stop level 3 % under current value. Do you calculate that percentage in relation to market volatility or something? I guess I have the same question for the exit region.

Also, do the fact that the 515 level seems to have some resistance alter your current strategy?

he puts his stop were the triangle he draws is invalidated.

[adamstgBit]

awesome thread, i'll be watching.

[Trade-Winds]

Very interesting thread, definitely following this! Nice with some honesty for a change.
So I have been following crypto for a while, but is new to technical trading, so please forgive me for newbie questions.

So how do you decide the stop level? I saw in your excel sheet that you put the stop level 3 % under current value. Do you calculate that percentage in relation to market volatility or something? I guess I have the same question for the exit region.

Also, do the fact that the 515 level seems to have some resistance alter your current strategy?

Thanks apachebalou, sorry for delayed answer, have been laid low with flu. Regarding you questions. The stop level is NOT an arbitrary % below the price action, it is placed behind any obvious points of support that if broken would indicate further lower prices would occur. For this trade there was an ascending support line + rising moving averages + recent price bounce all above my stop. The idea being to keep the stop away from normal price volatility but close enough to protect when price stops moving the way you hope it will. The idea for this trade was that the price would breakout, consolidate below $530 level then continue through that point, however that didn't occur and the breakout failed and the support points above my stop failed. I exited the trade at the area of my stop $504. As I knew $530 was resistance I could have taken profit at that point, but if it had continued to breakout above there and I took profit then I would have a small profit and missed the move I was trying to trade. As it is I was out with a small loss $510 entry $504 exit.

Do you have any recommendations for good resources that I could study to better understand the basics of your decisions?  I'm new to all this, seems very interesting.

I am using technical analysis, support/resistance, patterns, averages and strict money management. There is a lot of online resource I haven't really any to recommend above another as there is so much and to a certain extent it is a personal interpretation that you fit to suit your own approaches. If I were you i would google and read up on topics you find interesting and see what starts to appeal to you.

This is a very interesting approach! I think a lot of people should just go and try their strategies on (public?) virtual portfolios, so that people can see whose strategy (or wild guessing) is best! Is there a site to do this?

There is a lot of such sites in the FX World where traders post their ideas and people follow them either actually taking the same trades or just to learn.

[Trade-Winds]

Do you have any recommendations for good resources that I could study to better understand the basics of your decisions?  I'm new to all this, seems very interesting.

draws the lines using previous tops and bottoms, its not that hard really.  the way i learnt it was just by watching these types of threads, for a while, eventually you get it.

Very interesting thread, definitely following this! Nice with some honesty for a change.
So I have been following crypto for a while, but is new to technical trading, so please forgive me for newbie questions.

So how do you decide the stop level? I saw in your excel sheet that you put the stop level 3 % under current value. Do you calculate that percentage in relation to market volatility or something? I guess I have the same question for the exit region.

Also, do the fact that the 515 level seems to have some resistance alter your current strategy?

he puts his stop were the triangle he draws is invalidated.

Essentially correct, thanks for watching.

[Trade-Winds]

As noted in an earlier thread the previous open trade closed out at the indicated stop of $504 with a very small loss $510 - $504.

Just putting up a new chart view (4 hours) showing the current momentum and possible direction. Currently there is no indication of upward price movement of any note (except for small gyrations that are not worth the risk of trading) So currently just watching.

[apachebalou]

The stop level is NOT an arbitrary % below the price action, it is placed behind any obvious points of support that if broken would indicate further lower prices would occur.

OK, make sense, thanks!

[Trade-Winds]

As noted in an earlier thread the previous open trade closed out at the indicated stop of $504 with a very small loss $510 - $504.

Just putting up a new chart view (4 hours) showing the current momentum and possible direction. Currently there is no indication of upward price movement of any note (except for small gyrations that are not worth the risk of trading) So currently just watching.

I haven't posted since this chart from Sept 8th. The comments on that chart are exactly where BTC is now. There is nothing indicating anything other than more downwards pressure. The price area of low to mid $400s has been an area where rally's have sparked over the past few months, so a good reason to watch very closely now. I will provide a chart update shortly.

[yokosan]

As noted in an earlier thread the previous open trade closed out at the indicated stop of $504 with a very small loss $510 - $504.

Just putting up a new chart view (4 hours) showing the current momentum and possible direction. Currently there is no indication of upward price movement of any note (except for small gyrations that are not worth the risk of trading) So currently just watching.

I haven't posted since this chart from Sept 8th. The comments on that chart are exactly where BTC is now. There is nothing indicating anything other than more downwards pressure. The price area of low to mid $400s has been an area where rally's have sparked over the past few months, so a good reason to watch very closely now. I will provide a chart update shortly.

Given your past predictions I am inclined to buy as much as I possibly can right now.

[Trade-Winds]

Given your past predictions I am inclined to buy as much as I possibly can right now.

It could be a good place to consider buying ($400 ish) but then problem will be very high volatility here and therefore no logical points for using protective stops if the price keeps  its downward bias. Putting a low ball buy price in and hoping it gets filled on a spike down is also worth looking at.
I am not buying yet, waiting for reversal signal rather than trying to catch a knife. Again will update more fully soon.

Good luck

[Trade-Winds]

Ok now time to seriously look at buying BTC following the price spike on the back of the PayPal Bitcoin news. A bottom of $378 has been put in with a spike top of $450 area. That now gives a good price bracket to operate within.
What I am watching for now is buying continuation following the news based spike, currently it is drifting downwards back towards low $400 zone, it needs to consolidate here rather than give back all the gains, otherwise no tradeable pattern will emerge.

Also good news from CEX that they are out of Beta on fiat markets, plus adding more fiat and crypto trading pairs. This will give a good liquidity shot as more traders go to the exchange.

http://www.coindesk.com/cex-io-us-dollar-deposits-trading-pairs/

[Trade-Winds]

Ok now time to seriously look at buying BTC following the price spike on the back of the PayPal Bitcoin news. A bottom of $378 has been put in with a spike top of $450 area. That now gives a good price bracket to operate within.
What I am watching for now is buying continuation following the news based spike, currently it is drifting downwards back towards low $400 zone, it needs to consolidate here rather than give back all the gains, otherwise no tradeable pattern will emerge.

Also good news from CEX that they are out of Beta on fiat markets, plus adding more fiat and crypto trading pairs. This will give a good liquidity shot as more traders go to the exchange.

http://www.coindesk.com/cex-io-us-dollar-deposits-trading-pairs/

All that Paypal news inspired gain is given back. Most likely is further downside. Attached downwards channel is trade-able.

[Trade-Winds]

OK, I am buying into this potential $275 bottom rejection set up. The bottom was on high volume and the daily candle of the low is a nice rejection with a long tail, so the pattern looks promising for a recovery back up to descending resistance which is currently around $400.

[midmarch]

I'm learning lots watching this.  Thanks heaps