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Author Topic: Mining investment: 30BTC=100Mh/s*1 year=~360BTC cur rate, likely to decrease  (Read 2943 times)
joshuaMachine
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May 07, 2011, 04:26:32 AM
 #1

Simple:

There are currently 10 slots available for investment, you can buy any number of slots up to 10. Each slot costs 30 BTC.

You will earn bitcoins at a mining rate averaging at least 100 Mh/s for the next year.

At the current mining rate, you can expect to get about a bitcoin each day. The projection is that this will decrease, but even .25 BTC / day this will have paid for itself in a 1/3 of the time.

Payout done automatically once a day

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May 07, 2011, 05:20:17 AM
 #2

Why is this a good deal for you?
joshuaMachine
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May 07, 2011, 05:34:15 AM
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Basically for use of the machine. Low benefit and low risk.

- I get free electricity
- I want to work on free Bitcoin software for the community, and I need an OpenCL testing machine for one of the projects I am interested in. If I can maintain over 100 Mh/s per slot (I expect I can maintain a little bit more), then I can use the extra time to get access to the machine for multi-gpu OpenCL testing. If there is still extra time (unlikely), I can earn a token number of bitcoins.

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May 07, 2011, 05:45:26 AM
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I still don’t understand why you need the investment. What kind of machine is it, and does it cost you Bitcoins to run? Huh Or is it that you just need some Bitcoins quickly and offer this deal?

And how can I trust you not to run away with the Bitcoins, as you’re rather new?

"Bitcoin had been transformed from an anarachistic challenge to the financial status quo, to the crypto spawn of Satan, fuelled by cut-throat greed and delusions of avarice." - MatTheCat
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joshuaMachine
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May 07, 2011, 06:02:33 AM
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I still don’t understand why you need the investment. What kind of machine is it, and does it cost you Bitcoins to run? Huh Or is it that you just need some Bitcoins quickly and offer this deal?

And how can I trust you not to run away with the Bitcoins, as you’re rather new?

I actually am using dollars to purchase the machine. The machine is a computer, it costs me nothing to run it, because I happen to have flat-rate electricity (actually it does take up space, and some time to set up the automatic payouts). I can accept bitcoins because I can convert bitcoins to dollars, today if I want to. I am a graduating CS student from a prominent university in the states, I will be posting my work on these forums. On my end, I get a lot of value (but not a lot of money) because I need intermittent use of a machine that would cost me $1000 up front, without having to pay anything up front. I am getting partial use of that computer (which is all I need, but there is no way normally to buy partial use of a comptuer, you buy the entire thing). And, I am not taking on significant risk.

I'm getting the particular value I need at low risk. Every else is getting high rate of return with moderate risk. That is how it is set up. Feel free to ask me more questions!

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May 07, 2011, 06:13:45 AM
 #6

http://glbse.com

The market is down for the weekend but you could list 10 shares at 30btc on there.

Can you supply references for the shareholders ?

I have a few spare btc and this looks like it would bring benefit back to bitcoin.
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May 07, 2011, 06:19:00 AM
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Ah, I see. Thanks for your answers.

If you could resolve my trust issue somehow (link to existing identity perhaps), I would certainly consider investing, probably all 300 BTC. After all, I must have assurance that you will run it a whole year and pay out daily.

"Bitcoin had been transformed from an anarachistic challenge to the financial status quo, to the crypto spawn of Satan, fuelled by cut-throat greed and delusions of avarice." - MatTheCat
"these people don't seem to want to stop till Bitcoin is completely destroyed and left like an old cum rag in the corner of the room." - ShroomsKit
joshuaMachine
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May 07, 2011, 06:25:32 AM
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Right, I can work on that. If this is something a LOT of people would be interested in, I could conceivably build more of these machines and have them mine, and put up more than 10 shares on that site when it is back up.

Go ahead and correct me now if I am wrong: Once I get a computer mining at a certain hash rate, the difficulty of the block does not affect the hash guess rate, just affects the likelihood of the solution? I may have mixed words, otherwise.

If 100 Mh/s today might only be 20 Mh/s in the future, then I would actually be taking on *all the financial risk and giving away all the financial reward* - that is not the idea. Little help from the bitcoin hashing pros? The main draw here IMO is that normally to do this mining, you would need to pay something like 30 BTC just to cover the electricity cost of mining for a year. Since I am unique and don't have that cost, I can offer a good long term deal.

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May 07, 2011, 06:27:23 AM
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I'm confused about the numbers. At current difficulty, and 100mhash/s, you'll find a block on average every 54 days, 12 hours, 26 minutes. That's only 6-7 blocks, 300-350 BTC, over the course of the year. The payout for all shares combined is currently less than 1 BTC/day and almost assuredly will drop over the course of the next year. I don't think this investment can make a return at 100mhash/s.

My bad, I thought the 100Mh/s was divided between the shares.
joshuaMachine
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May 07, 2011, 06:31:15 AM
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Right. One investment share is 30 BTC and it earns you 100 Mh/s for a year (not 10 Mh/s).

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May 07, 2011, 06:32:54 AM
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Your hashrate in absolutes will always stay the same, as it is determined by hardware (in fact it will probably even increase as the software becomes more efficient), it will just relatively be less as the network’s global hashrate increases, and with it the difficulty to generate.

Anyway, I want to invest in this once you provide us with credibility. It would be cool if you could set up even more machines, having free electricity is definitely a major advantage.

"Bitcoin had been transformed from an anarachistic challenge to the financial status quo, to the crypto spawn of Satan, fuelled by cut-throat greed and delusions of avarice." - MatTheCat
"these people don't seem to want to stop till Bitcoin is completely destroyed and left like an old cum rag in the corner of the room." - ShroomsKit
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May 07, 2011, 06:33:30 AM
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Once I get a computer mining at a certain hash rate, the difficulty of the block does not affect the hash guess rate, just affects the likelihood of the solution? I may have mixed words, otherwise.

This is correct. Your hash rate will vary something like +/-5% all the time, but the difficulty only decreases the chance that each hash will find a valid block.
joshuaMachine
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May 07, 2011, 06:45:49 AM
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I can't scale this up indefinitely at the moment, but I could scale this somewhat. I could imagine having storage space for maybe 10-20 such machines in the very near future (allowing for 100-200 shares in total of the same kind). The limitation would basically be the wall socket. How many kW can I draw without blowing the breaker? Depends on the current draw, I suppose, but how many computers could I practically rig to a wall socket. Each computer would be fitted with about a 1 kW power supply. I would have to re-figure the numbers though, because at that point it would no longer be about using the machine, I would need to make sure I had enough hashing power to make the extra hashes worth my time.

Any thoughts on the limitation of a circuit breaker in an average house? A college dorm? Single wall outlet with surge protector?

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kseistrup
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May 07, 2011, 06:58:01 AM
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I'm interested in buyng a share, I've sent you a PM.

Cheers,

Klaus Alexander Seistrup
http://about.me/kseistrup
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May 07, 2011, 07:16:47 AM
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As am I, but would it be anyway possible to somewhat take a "loan" for the btc I dont have and pay you back when they are generated?

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joshuaMachine
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May 07, 2011, 07:20:16 AM
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As am I, but would it be anyway possible to somewhat take a "loan" for the btc I dont have and pay you back when they are generated?

So I pay for the hardware and generate the bitcoins, and then give them to you? I don't think that would be very fair to me.

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May 07, 2011, 07:42:05 AM
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Well, I'm new to BTC and trying to find a way to start up. Low on cash since I'm a college student... I don't know. It was a question. Simply I pay you some, you keep the rest until I'm covered. And hell, I would even make it 45BTC for myself for the inconvenience of it. Again, just a question.

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May 07, 2011, 08:15:48 AM
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I may be interested. A few questions:
1. When would it start? Do you have the machine or you'll need to buy it and setup first?
2. Are you going to pay daily amounts that can be calculated from difficulty or is it going to be a fraction of your daily pool payouts?

The trust is of course a problem. I would be fairly easy to take the 300 BTC and run. Or even better. Take 300 BTC, pay it back for some time, gain some trust, sell 10 times more contracts and run with 3000 BTC. All without owning mining machines. It would help if you indeed owned the machine and could show some income stream.

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May 07, 2011, 08:17:14 AM
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This would indeed be an interesting deal but you forgot to mention one very important detail: when will you be able to start (actually mining, that is)?
Please keep in mind that due to the current rate of difficulty jumps, every day counts and if you start mining in, say two weeks from now, this investment might barely be profitable. I don't think you can justify your profit calculations because they are based on non-increasing difficulty levels. Even the one with 90BTC@25% - which might seem conservative - but if difficulty is going to increase to 400% of today's level, do you think one could rationally assume that it would stop there?
Maybe you should also clarify if the slots will mine solo (probably not very wise), if all 10 slots work together in a private pool or if you plan on having them work for some public pool.

Having said all that, if you can start within the next week, I'm in Smiley
joshuaMachine
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May 07, 2011, 08:36:51 AM
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This would indeed be an interesting deal but you forgot to mention one very important detail: when will you be able to start (actually mining, that is)?
Please keep in mind that due to the current rate of difficulty jumps, every day counts and if you start mining in, say two weeks from now, this investment might barely be profitable. I don't think you can justify your profit calculations because they are based on non-increasing difficulty levels. Even the one with 90BTC@25% - which might seem conservative - but if difficulty is going to increase to 400% of today's level, do you think one could rationally assume that it would stop there?
Maybe you should also clarify if the slots will mine solo (probably not very wise), if all 10 slots work together in a private pool or if you plan on having them work for some public pool.

Having said all that, if you can start within the next week, I'm in Smiley

90 BTC return describes a scenario where the difficulty increases to 400% of today's level TODAY. It's more likely that today the difficulty level will be approximately 100% of today's level. Do the calculation to determine the expect return at the current rate change, at a 2x rate change, and a 1/2x rate change. Report back. You will get paid the expected value of mining BTC at 100 Mh/s. The private pool choice / soloing is something you don't have to worry about. The only thing that is relevant to your BTC income is the difficulty rating.

I am working out the deal with the first buyer (of all 10 slots). More slots will likely become available if there is continued demand but I will need to adjust the parameters, work on my trust level, apparently sign up for gpg, make sure the prices are still such that I can buy the computer for 300 BTC. Keep posting, I'll be here.

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