New difficulty: 23844670038 +20.86% - Sucks!

[Lauda]

+20.86% You gotta know when to pull the plug....

Turned off my miners this morning...until BTC goes back over $550. Need the fiat.

More bad news:
Estimated Next Difficulty:   28,023,615,809 (+17.53%) in 14 days.

Exactly why does the small difference in price matter so much? Are you instantly selling your coins? Then this wouldn't come as a surprise to me.
Why not keep mining all the time and sell it later if you have to?
I remember the days that I got into this business, the difficulty was 7M (!) or even less. It was quite some time ago.
If I only had a 4 TH/s ASIC then. 

[navigator]

Only 4 out of the last 17 difficulty adjustments have been over 20%.

[DrG]

Only 4 out of the last 17 difficulty adjustments have been over 20%.

Yes, but 2 of those 4 were in the last 5 adjustments.  Clearly there is an upsurge in the network growth rate.  It will go up, level off growth rate, and then go up again.  Depends on whether companies feel like deploying massive MW farms. Nothing home miners can do at this point.

[xstr8guy]

+20.86% You gotta know when to pull the plug....

Turned off my miners this morning...until BTC goes back over $550. Need the fiat.

More bad news:
Estimated Next Difficulty:   28,023,615,809 (+17.53%) in 14 days.

Exactly why does the small difference in price matter so much? Are you instantly selling your coins? Then this wouldn't come as a surprise to me.
Why not keep mining all the time and sell it later if you have to?
I remember the days that I got into this business, the difficulty was 7M (!) or even less. It was quite some time ago.
If I only had a 4 TH/s ASIC then. 

Many miners sell BTC to pay their electric bill and/or to purchase new mining gear. So of course a significant portion of earnings are immediately sold.

[joust]

Yes, but 2 of those 4 were in the last 5 adjustments.  Clearly there is an upsurge in the network growth rate.  It will go up, level off growth rate, and then go up again.  Depends on whether companies feel like deploying massive MW farms. Nothing home miners can do at this point.

Nothing like a bit of "statistics" to throw in the mix.

You seem to miss saying that the average of those last 5 is 12.45% but the previous 5 it was 14.07%.

14.07% is greater than 12.45% no matter how you look at it, and unless you are trying to 'spot mine' for a two week period then it's the average that sets you total earnings, not the individual changes.

J
www.megamine.com

[DrG]

Yes, but 2 of those 4 were in the last 5 adjustments.  Clearly there is an upsurge in the network growth rate.  It will go up, level off growth rate, and then go up again.  Depends on whether companies feel like deploying massive MW farms. Nothing home miners can do at this point.

Nothing like a bit of "statistics" to throw in the mix.

You seem to miss saying that the average of those last 5 is 12.45% but the previous 5 it was 14.07%.

14.07% is greater than 12.45% no matter how you look at it, and unless you are trying to 'spot mine' for a two week period then it's the average that sets you total earnings, not the individual changes.

J
www.megamine.com

You're comparing base increases in the difficulty without the effect of luck.  Total network luck is not statistically available but quite of bit of info can be gleaned from OoC's weekly pool stats.  The last set of 5 adjustments had bad luck, probably explaining why this last jump was over 20% (since the previous 2 jumps to that had very bad luck).  The luck in May and June was slightly positive I believe.

So 12.45 may very well be more than 14.07 when weighted.  You could compare the Bitcoins/GH/s as a comparison rather than the difficulty.

[joust]

You're comparing base increases in the difficulty without the effect of luck.  Total network luck is not statistically available but quite of bit of info can be gleaned from OoC's weekly pool stats.  The last set of 5 adjustments had bad luck, probably explaining why this last jump was over 20% (since the previous 2 jumps to that had very bad luck).  The luck in May and June was slightly positive I believe.

So 12.45 may very well be more than 14.07 when weighted.  You could compare the Bitcoins/GH/s as a comparison rather than the difficulty.

You can reasonably estimate luck as you have a large sample size, and certainly just using confidence interval analysis to remove any identifiable upward trend of true added hash rate is relatively straightforward.

On using CI's, of course luck variance can easily be +/-5% and there is of course nothing to say you can't have +/-100% (there is nothing that says miners couldn't solve every block in a two week period with the first calculation).

But, a bit like the lottery, your confidence interval of a taking the 4 week average of every block is around 2% for the 95% interval, and as it would follow the same distribution that gives you around -2->0->+2 extreme.

8 weeks would bring to above 1%, 12 weeks to just less than 1%.

The drop below 20% for the last 12 weeks is therefore within C99% and probably C99.5%.

Not impossible that luck hasn't done that, but if you believe that you should probably just buy lottery tickets rather than mining....

Or of course, you could pop over to Megamine where our 95% luck guarantee means you don't have to worry about it

J
www.megamine.com

[joust]

You could compare the Bitcoins/GH/s as a comparison rather than the difficulty.

That is always good, but again you have 'luck' in there as the network GH/s is not an actual figure, it's just 1/[time taken to solve a block*diff] which is entirely dependent on luck.

That's the problem with difficulty, it doesn't tell you what is 'actually' out there, it tells you what the network 'thinks' is out there.

You can also skip the /GHs and look at either

https://blockchain.info/charts/miners-revenue?timespan=30days&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=0&address=
Yep it's "flat". Tells you a lot.

Or this one (number of new coins)
https://blockchain.info/charts/total-bitcoins?timespan=30days&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=0&address=

If you 7/14 day average that you'll find it's also surprisingly flat.

J
www.megamine.com

[DrG]

You could compare the Bitcoins/GH/s as a comparison rather than the difficulty.

That is always good, but again you have 'luck' in there as the network GH/s is not an actual figure, it's just 1/[time taken to solve a block*diff] which is entirely dependent on luck.

That's the problem with difficulty, it doesn't tell you what is 'actually' out there, it tells you what the network 'thinks' is out there.

You can also skip the /GHs and look at either

https://blockchain.info/charts/miners-revenue?timespan=30days&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=0&address=
Yep it's "flat". Tells you a lot.

Or this one (number of new coins)
https://blockchain.info/charts/total-bitcoins?timespan=30days&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=0&address=

If you 7/14 day average that you'll find it's also surprisingly flat.

J
www.megamine.com

I think OoC calculation of BTC/GH/s was based off of pool's statistics that reported how many shares had been submitted and how many bitcoins (block solves) were rewarded.  So it wouldn't be based off of luck (reverse miner speed calculation) but actual miner share submissions.  Unfortunately this isn't available for 1/3 of the network since solo miners and some pools don't report this info.

So if the we assume the 1/3 that is not reported is the same as that which is reported, then if the BTC/GH/s goes down 50%, we assume the network speed has network speed had doubled (irrespective of what might have happened with the actual difficulty).

[joust]

I think OoC calculation of BTC/GH/s was based off of pool's statistics that reported how many shares had been submitted and how many bitcoins (block solves) were rewarded.  So it wouldn't be based off of luck (reverse miner speed calculation) but actual miner share submissions.  Unfortunately this isn't available for 1/3 of the network since solo miners and some pools don't report this info.
So if the we assume the 1/3 that is not reported is the same as that which is reported, then if the BTC/GH/s goes down 50%, we assume the network speed has network speed had doubled (irrespective of what might have happened with the actual difficulty).

Concur. You're only factor there is stale/people hanging back, but minor in the grand scheme of things.

[philipma1957]

 well once you attempt to factor   btc price as part of the calc   it does become a more complicated model.

numbers as of  9 am eastern standard time

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty


Bitcoin Difficulty:   23,844,670,039

Estimated Next Difficulty:   27,142,574,550 (+13.83%)

Adjust time:   After 447 Blocks, About 2.8 days


http://www.bitcoincharts.com/

Difficulty   23844670039

Estimated   26599084298 in 446 blks

about 11.55 %

Please try to remember some other reasons for diff shifting a bit.

Cooler weather is coming .  So many people are buying and running more gear with that in mind.

Bitfury did open a big plant.



I still see no real incentive for the top builders of asic's to sell to us.

 Mining at 1 watt a gh , 10 cents a kwatt and 500 usd a coin  turns a profit .

Up to a diff of 80000 they are all good.  Why sell much gear just mine

  At a diff   60746 M         a 1000 gh 1 watt   per hash 10 cents a kwatt machine earns a $1.40 a day .

Any builder with that cost for power no longer has much incentive to sell gear.



And many builders have .8 watt at 6 cents a kwatt  they would be earning $3.03 a day at   a diff of 60746M

and 9.44 usd a day now

[cryptcoin_de]

+20.86% You gotta know when to pull the plug....

Turned off my miners this morning...until BTC goes back over $550. Need the fiat.

More bad news:
Estimated Next Difficulty:   28,023,615,809 (+17.53%) in 14 days.

Exactly why does the small difference in price matter so much? Are you instantly selling your coins? Then this wouldn't come as a surprise to me.
Why not keep mining all the time and sell it later if you have to?
I remember the days that I got into this business, the difficulty was 7M (!) or even less. It was quite some time ago.
If I only had a 4 TH/s ASIC then. 

Many miners sell BTC to pay their electric bill and/or to purchase new mining gear. So of course a significant portion of earnings are immediately sold.

This maybe is one of the biggest problems right now, the big mines adding more and more MW, they must pay there electric bill also, selling more and more BTC for all the bills and a real profit, adding more MW next, and and...

Difficulty goes up, exchange rate goes down, in a few month the big mines like BF, cex, peta and some china mines will have the control over the most mined BTC's and the network.

This can be like a horror movie. The greed of the MW mines promises a dark future for Bitcoin - the worst scenario is a big, big crash... Just my two cents.

[BitCoinNutJob]

+20.86% You gotta know when to pull the plug....

Turned off my miners this morning...until BTC goes back over $550. Need the fiat.

More bad news:
Estimated Next Difficulty:   28,023,615,809 (+17.53%) in 14 days.

Good news for the price though and even the Chinese miners are going to want to keep the price up.

[cryptcoin_de]

+20.86% You gotta know when to pull the plug....

Turned off my miners this morning...until BTC goes back over $550. Need the fiat.

More bad news:
Estimated Next Difficulty:   28,023,615,809 (+17.53%) in 14 days.

Good news for the price though and even the Chinese miners are going to want to keep the price up.

Hopefully the exchange rate know that also.