Stable Exchange Rate?

[InterArmaEnimSil]

It looks as if the two main markets, bitcoinmarket and mtgox, are stabilizing around 5.5-6.5 USC/BTC.  The outliers and quartiles have been tightening for days now, and now the values are centering in that range.  Thoughts?  Could it be that we've established a market value?  That would be a major step toward currency confidence and widespread public use.

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[FreeMoney]

It does seem pretty steady lately. I think with volume so low compared to the total supply we are likely to get some swings for a while yet though.

[kiba]

It looks as if the two main markets, bitcoinmarket and mtgox, are stabilizing around 5.5-6.5 USC/BTC.  The outliers and quartiles have been tightening for days now, and now the values are centering in that range.  Thoughts?  Could it be that we've established a market value?  That would be a major step toward currency confidence and widespread public use.

I think it means that the market is now maturing since we now have lot of bitcoin volumes to work with. However, a big bitcoin "killer business" will cause a sudden growth spurts, thus wide oscillation in the bitcoin economy. This just mean we have established ourselves a working economy. Now people will need to to work toward a killer business that will encourage major growth.

[kencausey]

The stability is, at least temporarily at an end.

Starting in the early hours (US time) mtgox.com began to surge, so far reaching 0.0735 USD/BTC.  Temporary surge?  Probably, but how long will it last and how high will it go?

[kiba]

Now, I am 3 dollars in profit since the beginning of the bitcoin spectulation career. Now, I can spend some of new profits into black swans bet.

[Babylon]

It's been stable the whole time I have been involved in bitcoins, with some fluctuations.  However right before I got involved it increased in value, relative to the USD by about tenfold.  As far as I can tell it had been relatively stable prior to that.

Considering how tiny the market is currently of goods and services available for bitcoins I expect the value to shoot up again if there is a sudden influx, or to crawl up slowly if there is a gradual trickle.

[S3052]

Agree!

One route to broaden bitcoins is to increase activity and have more people sell stuff at BIDDINGPOND.COM

Currently, there are too few sellers. If some folks start selling there, this could change the game.

[FreeMoney]

Agree!

One route to broaden bitcoins is to increase activity and have more people sell stuff at BIDDINGPOND.COM

Currently, there are too few sellers. If some folks start selling there, this could change the game.

Too few buyers! People are selling money over there and it's going way under value.

[Babylon]

Agree!

One route to broaden bitcoins is to increase activity and have more people sell stuff at BIDDINGPOND.COM

Currently, there are too few sellers. If some folks start selling there, this could change the game.

Too few buyers! People are selling money over there and it's going way under value.

Selling money on biddingpond is silly.  Well, I guess not if it is money that isn't traded through one of the exchanges, but selling dollars or euros there is silly.

I am kind of surprised there is not a Russian exchange, considering how many Russian members the baord has.

[kiba]

Agree!

One route to broaden bitcoins is to increase activity and have more people sell stuff at BIDDINGPOND.COM

Currently, there are too few sellers. If some folks start selling there, this could change the game.

Too few buyers! People are selling money over there and it's going way under value.

Selling money on biddingpond is silly.  Well, I guess not if it is money that isn't traded through one of the exchanges, but selling dollars or euros there is silly.

I am kind of surprised there is not a Russian exchange, considering how many Russian members the baord has.

There already is a Russian exchange. Look in the marketplace forum.

[Babylon]

Agree!

One route to broaden bitcoins is to increase activity and have more people sell stuff at BIDDINGPOND.COM

Currently, there are too few sellers. If some folks start selling there, this could change the game.

Too few buyers! People are selling money over there and it's going way under value.

Selling money on biddingpond is silly.  Well, I guess not if it is money that isn't traded through one of the exchanges, but selling dollars or euros there is silly.

I am kind of surprised there is not a Russian exchange, considering how many Russian members the baord has.

There already is a Russian exchange. Look in the marketplace forum.

So there is, I missed it.

[Anonymous]

         The best way to get greater adoption is to find a way to let people earn them for doing things ie working for them. When people could earn them easily for generating there was a lot more buzz around the idea.Now that its not easy to earn them other than selling goods its died off a bit. Even clicking on an offer to earn a few coins is a lower barrier to entry than trying to come up with a product to sell.

[kiba]

        The best way to get greater adoption is to find a way to let people earn them for doing things ie working for them. When people could earn them easily for generating there was a lot more buzz around the idea.Now that its not easy to earn them other than selling goods its died off a bit. Even clicking on an offer to earn a few coins is a lower barrier to entry than trying to come up with a product to sell.

There are quite lot of opinions on how to increase adoption of bitcoin, here and elsewhere.

But anyway, creating a way of doing bitcoin jobs like Mechanical Turks is a neat idea. I put it down in my list of niches to fill.

[Red]

I second the Mechanical Turk idea. I was planning to start a thread about that.

It could probably be a sinister way to do guerrilla marketing.

[Anonymous]

        The best way to get greater adoption is to find a way to let people earn them for doing things ie working for them. When people could earn them easily for generating there was a lot more buzz around the idea.Now that its not easy to earn them other than selling goods its died off a bit. Even clicking on an offer to earn a few coins is a lower barrier to entry than trying to come up with a product to sell.

There are quite lot of opinions on how to increase adoption of bitcoin, here and elsewhere.

But anyway, creating a way of doing bitcoin jobs like Mechanical Turks is a neat idea. I put it down in my list of niches to fill.

Thanks kiba. I was thinking more of a system like freelancer or odesk.

[kiba]

In any case, the price for bitcoin is stubbornly stable.

[Anonymous]

In any case, the price for bitcoin is stubbornly stable.

The market has determined that is exactly what btc is worth. Its quite impressive it has remained stable for so long.

[S3052]

the exchange rate will never be stable for long periods. There will always be fluctuations depending on supply & demand and on herding/psychologie (see elliottwave.com)
currently in my pov we are set for a breakout soon
i think it will be on the upside based on technical factors

[Babylon]

A stable exchange rate will be a good thing in the long run.  It will mean less upkeep for businesses.  Any period of sudden inflation or deflation means price instabilities and confusion because not only is the current price different but the seller and buyer cannot be sure that the price will be the same tomorrow. 

I do expect bitcoins to continue upward for a while.  I don't know what their equilibrium level will be and I also expect them to act as a hedge against dollar inflation and move upwards relative to dollars at a fairly slow rate, however I do hope that they settle at a relatively stable spot relative to standard goods and services because that will give them more utility as a medium of exchange.

One of the reasons Dollar's are useful as a medium of exchange is because their worth, while continually slowly decreasing, is decreasing at a relatively known rate.  If I agree on a price I know what that price means as far as opportunity cost, both now and later.

A fluctuating currency has unknown opportunity costs which makes commerce much less certain.

[S3052]

It is an illusion to believe that any exchange rate will be stable. There will always be fluctuations.

I agree with you that there are some exchange rates that will be less unstable than others, and that bitcoin may be one that is more stable relative to real values.