S3052
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October 01, 2010, 09:48:03 PM |
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volatility is low predominantly because psychology is balanced. Market participants are split between the belief of a rally or a decline.
volume is only a consequence of the former.
like with any other global market we are in a consolidation/ sideways pattern which is almost always accompanied by low volume.
only if expecation balance changes in any direction, volume will pick up substantially.
Example:
more people think BTC will increase in value. Some of them want to anticipate that and buy coins. To get the amount they want the bid prices up above last weeks high. Others see that and jump on the boat, driving prices further up. Some others whi did not trade for a while find out later and are worried to miss the rally and bid prices further up... Volume rises a lot..
The inverse happens to the downside.
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"In a nutshell, the network works like a distributed
timestamp server, stamping the first transaction to spend a coin. It
takes advantage of the nature of information being easy to spread but
hard to stifle." -- Satoshi
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S3052
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October 02, 2010, 09:31:32 AM |
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..and the low volatility and stable exchange rate helps increasing the stake .. :-)
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Timo Y
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bitcoin - the aerogel of money
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October 04, 2010, 08:02:54 AM |
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A guy brought lot of bitcoins on mtgox and it didn't exactly goes as planned.
How do you know what his plans were? Maybe it went exactly as planned. Maybe he knew that 30,000 BTC wasn't enough to crash the market and he was only trying to lull traders into a false sense of security. Or maybe those 30,000 were a weather balloon. Maybe next time he will dump 1 million bitcoins. |
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S3052
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October 04, 2010, 06:45:24 PM |
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--> foreeverdamaged
You are right that with 1 million bitcoins the market would crash, but to do that, he would get less than 0.02 for his remaining 960,000 bitcoins and for most of them even less..
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MoonShadow
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October 04, 2010, 07:05:03 PM |
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--> foreeverdamaged
You are right that with 1 million bitcoins the market would crash, but to do that, he would get less than 0.02 for his remaining 960,000 bitcoins and for most of them even less..
And there is no certainty that even that even such a hard crash would keep the market price down. |
"The powers of financial capitalism had another far-reaching aim, nothing less than to create a world system of financial control in private hands able to dominate the political system of each country and the economy of the world as a whole. This system was to be controlled in a feudalist fashion by the central banks of the world acting in concert, by secret agreements arrived at in frequent meetings and conferences. The apex of the systems was to be the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, Switzerland, a private bank owned and controlled by the world's central banks which were themselves private corporations. Each central bank...sought to dominate its government by its ability to control Treasury loans, to manipulate foreign exchanges, to influence the level of economic activity in the country, and to influence cooperative politicians by subsequent economic rewards in the business world."
- Carroll Quigley, CFR member, mentor to Bill Clinton, from 'Tragedy And Hope'
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S3052
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October 04, 2010, 07:07:06 PM |
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Agree, if psychology and confidence in bitcoins would still be good during this crash, traders and BTC investors would step in big time and buy at cheap prices, similar to the May 6 flash crahs
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S3052
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October 05, 2010, 10:00:39 PM |
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The bitcoin market has picked up in volume massively over the past 48 hours. We are almost at an all time high volume. Let's see that sign this will bring... https://mtgox.com/trade/history |
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kiba
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October 05, 2010, 10:16:08 PM |
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The bitcoin market has picked up in volume massively over the past 48 hours. We are almost at an all time high volume. Let's see that sign this will bring... https://mtgox.com/trade/historyHigh volume! Not much fluctuation in price, for now. |
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S3052
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October 05, 2010, 10:18:29 PM |
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Correct.
Biggest resistance is at 0.062. There is a 10,000 BTC+ sell order at that level. If this can be broken, then there is little resistance (=few sell orders) until 0.064
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S3052
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October 06, 2010, 10:57:05 AM |
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I agree that the automated trading helps providing liquidity.
At the same time, there is accumulation happening overall in the btc market , with a breakout to the upside more likely than a decline.
On by the way, idont hold large positions, I am not talking the market up. I just offer my technical analyst experience for perspective.
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jgarzik
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October 06, 2010, 07:55:23 PM |
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Does anybody know of open source software that performs automated trading? I found http://www.geniustrader.org/ but perhaps there are others. |
Jeff Garzik, Bloq CEO, former bitcoin core dev team; opinions are my own.
Visit bloq.com / metronome.io
Donations / tip jar: 1BrufViLKnSWtuWGkryPsKsxonV2NQ7Tcj
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Timo Y
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bitcoin - the aerogel of money
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October 06, 2010, 10:24:47 PM |
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Does anybody know of open source software that performs automated trading? I found http://www.geniustrader.org/ but perhaps there are others. How do you interface your auto trading program with MtGox? Do you simulate keyboard input or is there a less clumsy way of doing it? |
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jgarzik
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October 06, 2010, 10:29:13 PM |
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Does anybody know of open source software that performs automated trading? I found http://www.geniustrader.org/ but perhaps there are others. How do you interface your auto trading program with MtGox? Do you simulate keyboard input or is there a less clumsy way of doing it? MtGox is easy: it's all JavaScript, which means the code that handles login, buy, sell, add, withdraw is publicly visible, available for inspection and study. It uses HTML form values, HTTP cookies and JSON data. Any web programmer worth his salt knows how to use those. |
Jeff Garzik, Bloq CEO, former bitcoin core dev team; opinions are my own.
Visit bloq.com / metronome.io
Donations / tip jar: 1BrufViLKnSWtuWGkryPsKsxonV2NQ7Tcj
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kiba
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October 07, 2010, 05:05:53 AM |
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Massive quantity of volumes are exchanged in a few days in a row. Possible slight movement in price.
I also noticed the high activity rate for the last 5 days or so and the appearance of a few new highly active users. Perhaps bitcoin community growth has fueled the volume? Or not, we can't be sure anyway.
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