What amount of BTC are people seeing each week from HD5970?

[d3m0n1q_733rz]

Hey all!  It's your loveable, hugable D337z!
So, I was looking at the possibility of getting an HD5970, but I was wondering how long it would take to see a return on investment.
Now, I'm decent with math, but I have trouble getting numbers flipped around.  Also, real-world beats paper...because it has rocks.
So, what are some of you seeing out of your HD5970 cards in about a week?  Or, better yet, how long until return on investment?

Thanks!

[Stephen Gornick]

Or, better yet, how long until return on investment?

That will depends on knowing not only the exchange rate but also the difficulty -- at future points in time.  Oh, and knowing the price you pay for electricity is needed to compute that as well.

Now, I'm decent with math,

So, maybe you'll get about $2.20 a day worth of bitcoins at the current difficulty and market price.  Electricity on the 5970 alone might cost you about $1.20 per day if your electric rate is around $0.15 per kWh.

Here's a calculator where you can plug in some numbers:
 - http://tpbitcalc.appspot.com

So that's maybe a little over one year of profit at those levels before it adds up enough that you break even on the investment for buying a 5970.   That's assuming the price/difficulty doesn't continue dropping.  Here's the trend.  Don't forget, that come about December the amount of bitcoins issued will drop by half each day, so if you haven't broken even by then you probably won't be mining even at a profit after that unless the exchange rate doubles from its current level.
 - http://blockchain.info/charts/miners-operating-profit-margin

It could be curtains for new GPU purchases for mining (at a profit, versus as a hobby) unless either GPUs get really cheap or you are paying significantly less than $0.15 per kWh.

[BurtW]

Well stated.

[DOH!]

Right before I sold mine in favor of 7970's, I was pulling down +/- 1btc a day out of 2.  One was on water, massive overclock, the other was on air, not-so-massive overclock.  My electricity is 6.9c/kwh, at current prices I was making right around $4.change a day, paying them off in 6 months.  If you can get a couple for under 350, maybe some xfx's that have the second lifetime warranty available, I'd say go for it.  They are sort of, well, prone to failure so figure that in to your overhead, and it might make more sense to get newer generation cards.

[Stephen Gornick]

My electricity is 6.9c/kwh,

Do you know how unfair that is?  Seriously!  

[DOH!]

My electricity is 6.9c/kwh,

Do you know how unfair that is?  Seriously!  

Yep. I will be one of the last mohicans when the reward halves, still cranking away on my 7970's.  Pretty decent gaming cards too.  Might be using my next batch of btc to buy an eyefinity 27" setup just in case things don't pan out with mining lol.

[neo_rage]

Around 3.7 btc at current difficulty.

[someone703]

Around 3.7 btc at current difficulty.

This.  You'll get about .5BTC per day from a 5970 give or take a little.

[zvs]

Right before I sold mine in favor of 7970's, I was pulling down +/- 1btc a day out of 2.  One was on water, massive overclock, the other was on air, not-so-massive overclock.  My electricity is 6.9c/kwh, at current prices I was making right around $4.change a day, paying them off in 6 months.  If you can get a couple for under 350, maybe some xfx's that have the second lifetime warranty available, I'd say go for it.  They are sort of, well, prone to failure so figure that in to your overhead, and it might make more sense to get newer generation cards.

7970 will drop in value fast.  Even at 7c electricity I don't see the wisdom in purchasing a 7970 solely for mining (would have to have some gaming on the side).  Maybe if the electricity was free.

I had seven 5830's that I bought for $110 each..... but also got a steam key for Shogun 2 download... which sold for $10-$15...  So, about 95-$100 for each 5830.  A year later, I've sold all but one of those... total depreciation?  Well, nothing..

7970 a year from now will be worth much less.  5970 is getting close to a good buy point....  Another couple months should see them under $300, probably around $275.

Right now?  5830 (or 5850) is probably still the easiest to get at a price that won't drop much in absolute $...  but 5870 might be the best value when you figure in hash rate & efficiency.   5870's are what I've been buying, price point at $160 or less (a little higher for XFX).  

I think most people just choose to ignore their equipment depreciating in value when figuring profit..

[DOH!]

Right before I sold mine in favor of 7970's, I was pulling down +/- 1btc a day out of 2.  One was on water, massive overclock, the other was on air, not-so-massive overclock.  My electricity is 6.9c/kwh, at current prices I was making right around $4.change a day, paying them off in 6 months.  If you can get a couple for under 350, maybe some xfx's that have the second lifetime warranty available, I'd say go for it.  They are sort of, well, prone to failure so figure that in to your overhead, and it might make more sense to get newer generation cards.

7970 will drop in value fast.  Even at 7c electricity I don't see the wisdom in purchasing a 7970 solely for mining (would have to have some gaming on the side).  Maybe if the electricity was free.

I had seven 5830's that I bought for $110 each..... but also got a steam key for Shogun 2 download... which sold for $10-$15...  So, about 95-$100 for each 5830.  A year later, I've sold all but one of those... total depreciation?  Well, nothing..

7970 a year from now will be worth much less.  5970 is getting close to a good buy point....  Another couple months should see them under $300, probably around $275.

Right now?  5830 (or 5850) is probably still the easiest to get at a price that won't drop much in absolute $...  but 5870 might be the best value when you figure in hash rate & efficiency.   5870's are what I've been buying, price point at $160 or less (a little higher for XFX).  

I think most people just choose to ignore their equipment depreciating in value when figuring profit..

The purchase of these cards was to hedge against a market flood of 5870's and 50's and 30's come January when the reward halves.  Around that time, the 8000 series will be ever-so-close to release, making the 5000 series even less desirable, and I will have a nice rig with 4 7970's in it, fully paid for in rewards. I consider myself a large-scale hobbyist pushing the 5ghash envelope, of course gaming is a factor.  What you're not considering is that if gpu mining tanks, the demand for old out of warranty 5000 series cards will be almost nonexistent.  Plus getting a rock solid stable 2.8ghash on one machine, 1500w psu is pretty hard to do if you're not going 7970's.  Efficiency is great on these things, which should keep me profitable during the winter months when they are giving me free heat.  Basically a long explanation to make one point.  In January, I can shut off my mining and walk away with a nice profit and a killer gaming rig, sell off my remaining 5000 series cards and boards, buy a couple more monitors, and smile because I have a bunch of nice electronics that purchased themselves and have some cash in hand.  Flip side of that coin, I could have a bunch of worthless cards and semprons.     

[AzN1337c0d3r]

I had seven 5830's that I bought for $110 each..... but also got a steam key for Shogun 2 download... which sold for $10-$15...  So, about 95-$100 for each 5830.  A year later, I've sold all but one of those... total depreciation?  Well, nothing..

That won't keep happening if block-reward halves like expected (or that BFL ASIC miner hits). You had better sell them before that point.

7970 a year from now will be worth much less.

Nonsense, a year from now, 7970s will still be worth at least $350 even in a gaming market without miners. 20 nm isn't expected until H2 2013 so there wont be any revolutionary changes in GPU performance.

I think most people just choose to ignore their equipment depreciating in value when figuring profit..

And people buying 58xx choose to ignore risk.

[Buckwheet]

I started purchasing 5XXX series cards from places like [H] where I thought the cards would be more reliable. I have lost a 5850, 2x 5970s and a 5870 before they returned half their purchase price.

I will take cheap 7970s with warranties for now. I think if you got in with new 5XXX series cards that still have warranty options they are better, but I can't justify the risk anymore.

[zvs]

I had seven 5830's that I bought for $110 each..... but also got a steam key for Shogun 2 download... which sold for $10-$15...  So, about 95-$100 for each 5830.  A year later, I've sold all but one of those... total depreciation?  Well, nothing..

That won't keep happening if block-reward halves like expected (or that BFL ASIC miner hits). You had better sell them before that point.

7970 a year from now will be worth much less.

Nonsense, a year from now, 7970s will still be worth at least $350 even in a gaming market without miners. 20 nm isn't expected until H2 2013 so there wont be any revolutionary changes in GPU performance.

I think most people just choose to ignore their equipment depreciating in value when figuring profit..

And people buying 58xx choose to ignore risk.

Who? What? Did you read anything?

In essence, your position is that nobody should buy anything for bitcoins, due to the fact that rewards for new blocks will be halved and there will be no price appreciation.  OK.

Oh, sweet.  So the 7970 will only drop in price about $150 in a year?  Since when are we looking at percentages?  Looks like you just lost a whole 5870.

[AzN1337c0d3r]

In essence, your position is that nobody should buy anything for bitcoins, due to the fact that rewards for new blocks will be halved and there will be no price appreciation.  OK.

No one should buy anything if they cant break even by the reward-halving, yes. If you can make it, as is with the case of 7970s, then there's no reason you shouldnt. Do I need to spell it out for you?

Oh, sweet.  So the 7970 will only drop in price about $150 in a year?  Since when are we looking at percentages?  Looks like you just lost a whole 5870.

I lost absolutely nothing, because the depreciation will be outpaced by the profit. Which is a lot better than 4x 58xx being suddenly worth nothing.

[DOH!]

In essence, your position is that nobody should buy anything for bitcoins, due to the fact that rewards for new blocks will be halved and there will be no price appreciation.  OK.

No one should buy anything if they cant break even by the reward-halving, yes. If you can make it, as is with the case of 7970s, then there's no reason you shouldnt. Do I need to spell it out for you?

Oh, sweet.  So the 7970 will only drop in price about $150 in a year?  Since when are we looking at percentages?  Looks like you just lost a whole 5870.

I lost absolutely nothing, because the depreciation will be outpaced by the profit. Which is a lot better than 4x 58xx being suddenly worth nothing.

Seems like the reward halving has been outpaced by a value doubling. At 50 per block I was profitable at 4 dollars per coin, should be able to ride this train until ASIC is here.  One last thing, if the algorithm changes, ASIC is worthless, then all of a sudden gpu mining is necessary and very profitable again.

[ChanceCoats123]

Right before I sold mine in favor of 7970's, I was pulling down +/- 1btc a day out of 2.  One was on water, massive overclock, the other was on air, not-so-massive overclock.  My electricity is 6.9c/kwh, at current prices I was making right around $4.change a day, paying them off in 6 months.  If you can get a couple for under 350, maybe some xfx's that have the second lifetime warranty available, I'd say go for it.  They are sort of, well, prone to failure so figure that in to your overhead, and it might make more sense to get newer generation cards.

7970 will drop in value fast.  Even at 7c electricity I don't see the wisdom in purchasing a 7970 solely for mining (would have to have some gaming on the side).  Maybe if the electricity was free.

I had seven 5830's that I bought for $110 each..... but also got a steam key for Shogun 2 download... which sold for $10-$15...  So, about 95-$100 for each 5830.  A year later, I've sold all but one of those... total depreciation?  Well, nothing..

7970 a year from now will be worth much less.  5970 is getting close to a good buy point....  Another couple months should see them under $300, probably around $275.

Right now?  5830 (or 5850) is probably still the easiest to get at a price that won't drop much in absolute $...  but 5870 might be the best value when you figure in hash rate & efficiency.   5870's are what I've been buying, price point at $160 or less (a little higher for XFX).  

I think most people just choose to ignore their equipment depreciating in value when figuring profit..

Sorry, but I'm going to have to agree with the crowd on this one. 58xx prices have been artificially inflated by the mining market for over a year now. The technology inside the cards is almost 3 years old now. Granted the cards game pretty decently, you can find a much better card for playing games at the same price range (5870 ~ $150). Which means not even gamers will want the 58xx cards when the miners are done with them. However, 7970's will still be very good cards for gaming, even if at a discount. The point is, the current and previous returns you've made on 58xx cards are completely negligible because gpu mining was still profitable when you sold the cards. I honestly see the last string of 58xx cards selling near the $50 point. Which, since you mentioned percentages, is actually a larger loss than a $350 7970 (and who actually pays $500 for a new 7970 anyway?).