Will $7.20 be the 2012 high?

[proudhon]

Just curious what you folks think.

[ElectricMucus]

Oh wow.
The question is suggestive though.

[Qoheleth]

I wouldn't rule it out, but I think it's unlikely.

A lot can happen in nine months.

[Stephen Gornick]

A lot can happen in nine months.

A lot can happen in nine hours even.

$7.20 is a 48% rise from the current level.  If history were to ever repeat itself, that size of rise happening in a day or two has occurred mutliple times in Bitcoin's history.

The jump Jan 4th-5th was like that:
 - http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg180zigDailyzczsg2012-1-01zeg2012-1-08ztgSzm1g10zm2g25

Or the jump on May 11, 2011:
 - http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg180zczsg2011-05-11zeg2011-05-11ztgSzm1g10zm2g25

Though to be fair, that size of drop happening in a day or two has occurred even more often. 

The Mt. Gox order book currently sits at $1,004,293 to buy all the ask orders through $7.20 (which would acquire 177,076 BTC) according to BTCCharts.com.   Thats not a particularly large amount should there be a crowd or even a single entity wanting in quickly.

[ineededausername]

Just curious what you folks think.

no, because $7.22 was reached

[IIOII]

Will $7.20 be the 2012 high?

No! $7.20 will be the new 2012 bottom.

[proudhon]

Will $7.20 be the 2012 high?

No! $7.20 will be the new 2012 bottom.

Um, that makes no sense.

[proudhon]

A lot can happen in nine months.

A lot can happen in nine hours even.

$7.20 is a 48% rise from the current level.  If history were to ever repeat itself, that size of rise happening in a day or two has occurred mutliple times in Bitcoin's history.

The jump Jan 4th-5th was like that:
 - http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg180zigDailyzczsg2012-1-01zeg2012-1-08ztgSzm1g10zm2g25

Or the jump on May 11, 2011:
 - http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg180zczsg2011-05-11zeg2011-05-11ztgSzm1g10zm2g25

Though to be fair, that size of drop happening in a day or two has occurred even more often. 

The Mt. Gox order book currently sits at $1,004,293 to buy all the ask orders through $7.20 (which would acquire 177,076 BTC) according to BTCCharts.com.   Thats not a particularly large amount should there be a crowd or even a single entity wanting in quickly.

I know that percentage wise there have been rises of that magnatude, however I don't think those price increases occurred through the same ask volume density.  There are a lot more bitcoins up for sale closer to the current trading price than in the past when the price shot up above $10, $20, and $30.

[bitcoinBull]

I know that percentage wise there have been rises of that magnatude, however I don't think those price increases occurred through the same ask volume density.  There are a lot more bitcoins up for sale closer to the current trading price than in the past when the price shot up above $10, $20, and $30.

The asks on the order book are fake. They're there to manipulate people into selling their bitcoins for cheap.

[Qoheleth]

The asks on the order book are fake. They're there to manipulate people into selling their bitcoins for cheap.

That logic cuts both ways, y'know. The ask side isn't the one with a 50k wall

[Technomage]

I would be very surprised if $7.2 was the high of the year and obviously disappointed. Especially now that Bitcoin has got basically the biggest news boost since the summer (seriously) with a front page Reuters article linked all over the place and a London Times print article, in fact 2 print articles in the same magazine. On top of this we have basically a regular blogger at Forbes and much more positive/productive news coverage than before.

Of course if it just turns out as hype once again, it will be disappointing. However I see this year and the next as the years of actual growth (of Bitcoin usage). So far we have mostly had growth of 1) Silk Road 2) Speculation and 3) General interest but there is so much more coming. So much more.

[haploid23]

Where did you get such random numbers? Why not $6.50, or $8.00?

[proudhon]

Where did you get such random numbers? Why not $6.50, or $8.00?

[Crypt_Current]

Where did you get such random numbers? Why not $6.50, or $8.00?

$4 is likely the new bottom, but there's still 2/3 of 2012 left.  I see an overall rise in this chart... if that slight trend continues, it could be possible to break 7.2 by 12/21/2012 

[guruvan]

I wouldn't be surprised to break above $7.20 this year. In the moment, (as I stated in another thread), the market cap is awfully small, and still would be "small" at $7.20 - I'm looking for more along the lines of a $100M - no later than year's end. I wouldn't be surprised to see a little bubble to $10ish, see a new bottom form at the $7.20 zone, and then a steady rise to find the reality of the $10+ resistance.

There's definitely a real basis for a move up beyond the bottom we've largely established so far this year. There is definitely an influx of solid, hard money. (Mining gear sales alone suggest this) - I don't actually think the true level of investment is priced into the market yet. This is what I expect to drive us up past the $7.20 mark (to make that a new bottom) - There is a ton of investment that hasn't hit the network yet - it's going to start to hit May/June.

Also, somewhere between $20M and $50M an investment becomes too valuable to allow a chance of failure, and seems reaching that level often results in a direct influx of cash. Again, if this were a startup, and the actual investors were venture capitalists, they'd be looking for 20:1 on their initial investment, within 3-5yrs, sooooo... that's a lot of money.

[hazek]

Given the massive inflation faze Bitcoin is in right now I'd say it's possible.

[proudhon]

Given the massive inflation faze Bitcoin is in right now I'd say it's possible.

I think it's more than possible.

[blablahblah]

Using my incredible scientific method (bitcoincharts.com --> charts --> the gox --> maximum time period --> make edumacated McGuesstimate), it's clear that the price will go sideways 'til about May or June, then go parabolic to $40+ by October.

[mp420]

I don't think so. There's a lot of time for various kinds of things to happen before the year is over. And, although adoption rate has slowed down (may be temporarily, may be for good), I'm fairly sure most current and potential owners of bitcoin aren't really very well versed in the technicalities of the bitcoin network, and the block reward halving will thus be a strong boost to bitcoin overall. I'd dare say MOST btcs are bought by people who do not price the eventual inflation rate drop into their strategies.

[Crypt_Current]

I'd dare say MOST btcs are bought by people who do not price the eventual inflation rate drop into their strategies.

Not quite sure what you're getting at with this statement -- I am genuinely curious:  What do you think are the implications is most BTC are bought by people who do not price the eventual inflation rate drop into their strategies?

Apologies to OP if this is off-topic.