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Author Topic: The storm is building up!  (Read 3058 times)
Blitz­
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April 04, 2012, 02:21:18 PM
 #21

He's right though, it isn't looking good short term.
Why? Looking pretty neutral to me.

You're forgetting that neutral usually means down.
Maybe. You going bearish again? Tongue

"Bitcoin had been transformed from an anarachistic challenge to the financial status quo, to the crypto spawn of Satan, fuelled by cut-throat greed and delusions of avarice." - MatTheCat
"these people don't seem to want to stop till Bitcoin is completely destroyed and left like an old cum rag in the corner of the room." - ShroomsKit
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April 04, 2012, 02:28:01 PM
 #22

He's right though, it isn't looking good short term.
Why? Looking pretty neutral to me.

No charts cause I'm just holding (my base price is far lower than it could drop to anytime soon), but the wall interrupted a pretty clear market movement, and the market in turn overreacted. It just postpones it though.

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April 04, 2012, 02:36:35 PM
 #23

I'm expecting the breakout to happen soon. Meaning that we will break $5.4 - $5.5 and then test $7.2 fairly soon after that. Breakout downwards would be very counter-intuitive taking into account that Bitcoin has had the biggest news coverage in over 6 months. And that coverage has been overall fairly positive I believe.

However I've seen the market do some counter-intuitive stuff before, so anything is possible. We'll have to wait and see.

It's still too early... we may breakout and see 7.2, but we'll be right back here before it's said and done unless we dip a bit or at least go sideways for a bit more.

Great idea! I could use a $2-$2.50 trading range! Grin That would be pretty awesome for a bit.

I'm generally in agreement with Technomage - I don't see any real breakout down. IMO, that would take an overall reduction in the amount of bitcoin awareness. This is not happening at all. Lots more people are hearing about it, and curious.

The coverage is such that I'm actually expecting us to get some new players, possibly major players into Bitcoin thanks to that. It will take them time to learn about Bitcoin and get money in however.

My gut tells me that some are in, testing the waters, not wanting to make too big a splash too quick. This effect will be much more noticeable in a month.

Quote
Bitcoin needs this a lot, our market cap is so ridiculously tiny at the moment that I don't feel very comfortable. It's so easy for any decent sized trader to play with and manipulate the market. A larger market cap would be a healthy direction. This time I think we can actually sustain a larger market cap (although it will probably overshoot big time and bubble once again).

Again, I agree. $45M is mighty small in the grand scheme of global business. It took hours last night to watch 9K BTC get bought up on bitcoinica - if it wasn't (I think) "artificially" slowed - by not filling as fast as possible, it could shake the market a bunch. I've seen my own orders (just in the hundreds of BTC) filled quickly, and show in the chart.

$45M is close to a typical large second round of VC financing. Figure, maybe double that, then you're ready to cash out in an IPO - so if I extrapolate a little - maybe I might look for upside to $10 mid term (somewhere now-fall) then once it "hits the big time" the minimum valuation will need to be on the order of $1Billion to be "taken seriously"

I'm quite sure bitcoin can sustain $100M cap, but I'm not sure that even half of that $1B number is currently sustainable. ($50/1BTC). I can see it ramping quickly, though - look at other extreme high growth rate ideas (like Facebook, or Groupon) and we can see that a $1B market cap w/in one year isn't out of the question.

The small market cap is where I see the most risk for anything I've invested in bitcoin. It is just too easy to manipulate.

My crystal ball tells me there are more bubbles than one to contend with in the future. I think bitcoin is highly susceptible to these bubbles while it's still in this primary growth phase. Mostly we're seeing BTC used for speculation - either directly, or via business investments (i.e. venture capital, mining). We'll have to get through the first part of this venture development phase before bitcoin is commonly used by the general public, for regular shopping.

IMO, there's not enough leverage. One of the great values of leverage is to be able to short BTC, and thereby help hold the rate of price increase down to rational levels. Another brokerage or two to compete with bitcoinica would be an awesome help, and bring a good deal of liquidity to the market.

The fact that bitcoin is bootstrapping businesses, makes for very likely exponential growth. Think about it, if you're creating the business by raising capital in the form of BTC, folks start speculating on the business AND the BTC, raising a business's valuation extremely rapidly compared to "acutal" growth. Exponential growth is very hard to predict, and very subject to market bubbles (i.e. dotcom boom) - this could skyrocket a Major bitcoin player into the forefront of the internet business world in record time. $0 -> $6B in 3yrs or less.

Ya, Technomage, I think you're right. I'm looking for a large breakout to the upside. I'm looking for a test of the $5.25-$5.5 resistance, and a bounce back down here to the $4.75-$5 neighborhood. If we can see that I think some folks would feel safe to go long with larger positions, given an established hard bottom. Once that $5.50 resistance is pierced, it looks like it's pretty much straight to $7ville.

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April 04, 2012, 03:22:49 PM
 #24

He's right though, it isn't looking good short term.
Why? Looking pretty neutral to me.

You're forgetting that neutral usually means down.
Maybe. You going bearish again? Tongue

I'm neutral.   Grin  I haven't made any trades in a few weeks.  I'm proud of myself (me, not that other guy myself).
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April 04, 2012, 03:25:15 PM
 #25

I'm neutral.   Grin  I haven't made any trades in a few weeks.  I'm proud of myself (me, not that other guy myself).
Same here, soon to be one whole month now. I say fuck this market and its false signals.

"Bitcoin had been transformed from an anarachistic challenge to the financial status quo, to the crypto spawn of Satan, fuelled by cut-throat greed and delusions of avarice." - MatTheCat
"these people don't seem to want to stop till Bitcoin is completely destroyed and left like an old cum rag in the corner of the room." - ShroomsKit
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April 04, 2012, 03:57:38 PM
 #26

He's right though, it isn't looking good short term.
Why? Looking pretty neutral to me.

You're forgetting that neutral usually means down.
Maybe. You going bearish again? Tongue

I'm neutral.   Grin  I haven't made any trades in a few weeks.  I'm proud of myself (me, not that other guy myself).
IMO, flat is the way to be at the moment. If your holdings are in bitcoin not USD, you can easily hedge an overall neutral position by shorting your bitcoin balance at Bitcoinica and earn swap while you do.

I also have a couple limit orders far from the current price on either side, waiting for what seems to be the inevitable nearly instantaneous gap either way that characterizes bitcoin price movement.

We shall see what we shall see. Good luck to all.

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April 04, 2012, 05:47:32 PM
 #27

@guruvan I mostly agree.  < 3 is out of the question and likely < 4.  All I'm saying is we're not quite wound up enough for 7svile yet.

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April 04, 2012, 06:26:47 PM
 #28

@guruvan I mostly agree.  < 3 is out of the question and likely < 4.  All I'm saying is we're not quite wound up enough for 7svile yet.

no....not yet. i I had to guess, we still have at least another 4-6 weeks before that's possible to go that high. does depnd on the $5.50 resistance, IMO - it may take a bunch of bounces $4.5 - $5.5 to break through.

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April 05, 2012, 07:00:53 AM
 #29

feels like the bear is winning  Undecided

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April 05, 2012, 10:56:54 AM
 #30

No charts cause I'm just holding (my base price is far lower than it could drop to anytime soon), but the wall interrupted a pretty clear market movement, and the market in turn overreacted. It just postpones it though.
How is base price any relevant for making market moves (beside giving you the nice warm feeling of being smart)?
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April 05, 2012, 12:38:45 PM
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no....not yet. i I had to guess, we still have at least another 4-6 weeks before that's possible to go that high. does depnd on the $5.50 resistance, IMO - it may take a bunch of bounces $4.5 - $5.5 to break through.

Given the current situation I mostly agree.  I would say the range should be a little lower but who knows, these walls make things too unpredictable.

How is base price any relevant for making market moves (beside giving you the nice warm feeling of being smart)?

Relevancy is that it makes me comfortable with my holdings given the likely trading range in the short term, so no daytrading for me. I find my time is better spent doing other things.

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Blitz­
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April 08, 2012, 12:15:09 AM
 #32

I'm expecting the breakout to happen soon. Meaning that we will break $5.4 - $5.5 and then test $7.2 fairly soon after that. Breakout downwards would be very counter-intuitive taking into account that Bitcoin has had the biggest news coverage in over 6 months. And that coverage has been overall fairly positive I believe.

However I've seen the market do some counter-intuitive stuff before, so anything is possible. We'll have to wait and see.
Thanks Technomage, you continue to be the worst speculator ever.

"Bitcoin had been transformed from an anarachistic challenge to the financial status quo, to the crypto spawn of Satan, fuelled by cut-throat greed and delusions of avarice." - MatTheCat
"these people don't seem to want to stop till Bitcoin is completely destroyed and left like an old cum rag in the corner of the room." - ShroomsKit
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April 08, 2012, 12:28:14 AM
 #33

I'm expecting the breakout to happen soon. Meaning that we will break $5.4 - $5.5 and then test $7.2 fairly soon after that. Breakout downwards would be very counter-intuitive taking into account that Bitcoin has had the biggest news coverage in over 6 months. And that coverage has been overall fairly positive I believe.

However I've seen the market do some counter-intuitive stuff before, so anything is possible. We'll have to wait and see.
Thanks Technomage, you continue to be the worst speculator ever.

The sell-off has been relatively mild so far *knock on wood*.

We're still in the $4.3-$5.5 channel. Despite this counter-intuitive setback, my money says we'll break $5.5 before going below $4.3.

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April 08, 2012, 01:32:23 AM
 #34

I'm expecting the breakout to happen soon. Meaning that we will break $5.4 - $5.5 and then test $7.2 fairly soon after that. Breakout downwards would be very counter-intuitive taking into account that Bitcoin has had the biggest news coverage in over 6 months. And that coverage has been overall fairly positive I believe.

However I've seen the market do some counter-intuitive stuff before, so anything is possible. We'll have to wait and see.
Thanks Technomage, you continue to be the worst speculator ever.

At least he's consistent...consistently wrong. Almost every time he posts it's going up it goes down.

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April 08, 2012, 02:10:01 AM
 #35

I'm expecting the breakout to happen soon. Meaning that we will break $5.4 - $5.5 and then test $7.2 fairly soon after that. Breakout downwards would be very counter-intuitive taking into account that Bitcoin has had the biggest news coverage in over 6 months. And that coverage has been overall fairly positive I believe.

However I've seen the market do some counter-intuitive stuff before, so anything is possible. We'll have to wait and see.
Thanks Technomage, you continue to be the worst speculator ever.

At least he's consistent...consistently wrong. Almost every time he posts it's going up it goes down.

I've noticed that as well... sometimes to my profit  Grin

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April 08, 2012, 02:45:32 AM
 #36

It's him, hes the manipulator.


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April 08, 2012, 10:31:37 PM
 #37

I'm expecting the breakout to happen soon. Meaning that we will break $5.4 - $5.5 and then test $7.2 fairly soon after that. Breakout downwards would be very counter-intuitive taking into account that Bitcoin has had the biggest news coverage in over 6 months. And that coverage has been overall fairly positive I believe.

However I've seen the market do some counter-intuitive stuff before, so anything is possible. We'll have to wait and see.
Thanks Technomage, you continue to be the worst speculator ever.

i'm glad i narrowly avoided such an award...

You're both wrong. The bubble is gonna be so big, when it all blows over, they'll create a porn version called: Sideways Sally does Boobcoin.

roflmao that's hilarious  Cheesy

this sentence has fifteen words, seventy-four letters, four commas, one hyphen, and a period.
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