[ANN] A public company will build a huge Bitcoin Mining Operation (ASIC).

[Vbs]

True attack costs are gigantic, because they directly attack a golden goose!

Why would anyone with 10TH (or 9TH, or 8TH, or ...) do anything besides mining (thus, collecting huge profits) is beyond me. Wait, I have 10TH, gonna collapse Bitcoin now! Much better investment!

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[cunicula]

point is, you said 'difficulty will double' causing lots of miners to drop out, but failed to mention this would cause difficulty to drop again.

It's the kind of thing I expect people to realize without mentioning it explicitly, and it doesn't change my point.

i'm speaking on the straight math, no assumptions, no predictions.  nobody knows the full impact if this company ever launches.  nobody knows what gpu miners might do (like selling their gpu's and buying fpg's) or if a retail asic option would become available, so safest not to make any assumptions.

as to people generally realizing that you have to double current hashrate to gain 50% of the hashing power, numerous and repeated postings on these forums speak otherwise.  you most often find it in a statement like, "well if he got 1.2TH hashing, he'd have 10% of the network.".

What? Of course you are making assumptions. Unrealistic ones.

[triplehelix]

point is, you said 'difficulty will double' causing lots of miners to drop out, but failed to mention this would cause difficulty to drop again.

It's the kind of thing I expect people to realize without mentioning it explicitly, and it doesn't change my point.

i'm speaking on the straight math, no assumptions, no predictions.  nobody knows the full impact if this company ever launches.  nobody knows what gpu miners might do (like selling their gpu's and buying fpg's) or if a retail asic option would become available, so safest not to make any assumptions.

as to people generally realizing that you have to double current hashrate to gain 50% of the hashing power, numerous and repeated postings on these forums speak otherwise.  you most often find it in a statement like, "well if he got 1.2TH hashing, he'd have 10% of the network.".

What? Of course you are making assumptions. Unrealistic ones.

which assumptions am i making?

[cunicula]

point is, you said 'difficulty will double' causing lots of miners to drop out, but failed to mention this would cause difficulty to drop again.

It's the kind of thing I expect people to realize without mentioning it explicitly, and it doesn't change my point.

i'm speaking on the straight math, no assumptions, no predictions.  nobody knows the full impact if this company ever launches.  nobody knows what gpu miners might do (like selling their gpu's and buying fpg's) or if a retail asic option would become available, so safest not to make any assumptions.

as to people generally realizing that you have to double current hashrate to gain 50% of the hashing power, numerous and repeated postings on these forums speak otherwise.  you most often find it in a statement like, "well if he got 1.2TH hashing, he'd have 10% of the network.".

What? Of course you are making assumptions. Unrealistic ones.

which assumptions am i making?

You are assuming that the number of other people mining will remain constant as difficulty rises. If you believe people who say that a 51% attack attempt will decrease price, you are also assuming that the number of other people mining will remain constant as price falls.

[triplehelix]

point is, you said 'difficulty will double' causing lots of miners to drop out, but failed to mention this would cause difficulty to drop again.

It's the kind of thing I expect people to realize without mentioning it explicitly, and it doesn't change my point.

i'm speaking on the straight math, no assumptions, no predictions.  nobody knows the full impact if this company ever launches.  nobody knows what gpu miners might do (like selling their gpu's and buying fpg's) or if a retail asic option would become available, so safest not to make any assumptions.

as to people generally realizing that you have to double current hashrate to gain 50% of the hashing power, numerous and repeated postings on these forums speak otherwise.  you most often find it in a statement like, "well if he got 1.2TH hashing, he'd have 10% of the network.".

What? Of course you are making assumptions. Unrealistic ones.

which assumptions am i making?

You are assuming that the number of other people mining will remain constant as difficulty rises. If you believe people who say that a 51% attack attempt will decrease price, you are also assuming that the number of other people mining will remain constant as price falls.

no, the exact opposite.  i'm saying that nobody can predict what will happen, and making predictions with arbitrary percentage drop in hashrate is a terrible idea.

[cunicula]

Perhaps I misunderstood. I thought you were singling out people who assumed that investing 2 TH when the network is currently 10 TH would yield 20% of the hashing power. Special criticism for this group did not seem consistent with your opposition to any type of assumption.

I don't agree with you that people should avoid making any type of prediction. I think a reasonable prediction is that investing 2 TH when the network is currently 10 TH would yield somewhere between 16.7% and 20% of hashing power.

Anyways, it isn't worthwhile to discuss future events with someone whose only position is that no one knows what the future holds.

[cunicula]

Open question for Vladimir. Why aren't you planning to sell the ASIC gear to your competition?

The sunk cost of making an ASIC is huge. The marginal cost is small. Why not recover some of  your sunk cost by selling some ASICs at say 4 times marginal cost? Every sale would provide profit sufficient to pay for 2 ASICs for your personal stash (thus providing a net addition to your mining power) and in addition pocket 1 ASIC worth of profit. The more you sell, the more you profit, the more you dominate, the stronger the network.

What's up? It doesn't make sense. Is there a potential for any ASICs you sell to get reverse engineered and thus you don't want to release them? Are you trying to bluff that you have a larger technological advantage than you actually do and thus can't sell ASICs without revealing your secret? Are you a bad businessman? Which one is it.

[triplehelix]

I don't agree with you that people should avoid making any type of prediction. I think a reasonable prediction is that investing 2 TH when the network is currently 10 TH would yield somewhere between 16.7% and 20% of hashing power.

Anyways, it isn't worthwhile to discuss future events with someone whose only position is that no one knows what the future holds.

i disagree with you that its a reasonable prediction that we will see ANY drop off in hashing power.  as i said, there are just too many variables.  how does your prediction take into account potentials like a nice increase in bitcoin value (which historically shows a correlating increase in network hashrate)?  in say butterfly labs shipping singles and mini-rigs in quantity?  in potential new companies sprouting up delivering economical mining machines?  or the numerous other potential events that are realistic?

your forecast is about as valid as a professional weatherman trying to predict the weather on a single day 6 months out.  just too many variables, and the further out you try to forecast, the less valid your predictions.

maybe we see a drop off, maybe we see relative stability, maybe we see a network power increase.  why you think you have special insight and skills of prognosis professional forecasters repeatedly show not to be in possession of, is either overconfident or delusional.

[wogaut]

cost by selling some ASICs...

i can sell ASIC based cards, is someone would like to buy ? it is very difficult to price... just sample calculation... please correct... the card mined 50BTC per day, let say probably will have 1000BTC till November 1st. The BTC price is - ok, let say US$ 4.5 - so, the card will mine US$ 4500 within 200 days - minus electricity and support cost. What should be the price of card today ?

50BTC*20days=1000BTC, you would start mining October 10 to have approx. 1000BTC by Nov 1st.
That would be a large lead time, but 82GH/s per card.

doesn't correspond to your 200 days statement. Or maybe it's 5btc/day that would be approx 8.2GH/s currently per card then?
200days/30=6.6months. So you have an ASIC BTC miner board to sell now that does 8.2GH/s?

Which is it?

[freequant]

Nice April's Fool Vladimir!

[bulanula]

Nice April's Fool Vladimir!

I think this is true.

Nobody will be stupid enough to invest $1 million into something like BTC mining. Not at this uncertain stage with the reward halving, anyway.

Come on, let's be realistic !

[rjk]

Nice April's Fool Vladimir!

I think this is true.

Nobody will be stupid enough to invest $1 into something like BTC mining. Not at this uncertain stage with the reward halving, anyway.

Come on, let's be realistic !

I've invested far more than $1.

[Bitcoin Oz]

There is a bitcoin with an entity controlling more than 51%. Its called "mintchip"

[cbeast]

There is a bitcoin with an entity controlling more than 51%. Its called "mintchip"

There is a bitcoin with proof-of-stake. It's called "mintchip" 

[Bitcoin Oz]

There is a bitcoin with an entity controlling more than 51%. Its called "mintchip"

There is a bitcoin with proof-of-stake. It's called "mintchip" 

lol.

[Lightspeed]

Hey Vlad, have fun taking over the world muahahahaha first bitcoin billionaire indeed

[gusti]

However, all investment in ASICs would be lost if the core function had to change.

This is what makes a private ASIC farm extremely risky. Building ASICs to sell to the public on the other hand is far more profitable and much less risky.

This is the open alternative to Vladimir's approach :
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=76351.0

[EskimoBob]

However, all investment in ASICs would be lost if the core function had to change.

This is what makes a private ASIC farm extremely risky. Building ASICs to sell to the public on the other hand is far more profitable and much less risky.

Let me fix that for you: Building ASICs to sell to the public on the other hand is far more profitable for the scam leader and much less risky only to him, because risk is dumped on fools, who buy into this bullshit "business".

You are calling this scam "A public company"?! Really? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public_company

[smoothie]

Curious, if there are any new publicly-releasable information regarding the original post...

its been a few months...

[Raoul Duke]

Curious, if there are any new publicly-releasable information regarding the original post...

its been a few months...

Vladimir seems to have a lot of free time lately 

LOL, yep, waiting for ASIC's to be printed do that to people. 

And I am not just telling it to you so that I have bigger piece of mining pie. I am myself out of the mining game for good  for some time now and working with various projects such as Bitcoin Magazine, Ellet, Safebit etc... just to mention a few.

Does that mean your ASIC farm is no longer in the cards?

Our financial models told us that risk/reward is not that great, our partners were not too happy giving our investors decent terms so we pulled out of that project a few weeks before BFL announcement.

We decided to let all the competing ASIC teams to fight it out between each other without us.

Some of our time got wasted on this, but nobody on our side lost any money, except me (and it is negligible).