Spreadsheet: Invest in BTC or mining hardware?

[phelix]

Updated to 1.3... includes all of JJG's suggestions and phelix's suggestion to include calculations for selling immediately (or in this case, daily, since hourly would be a bit insane and impractical.

Next update, I'm going to notate all of the calculations in comments on each calculated field, so that others can more easily double-check my work (and I can double-check it myself while writing out the notations as well).

I think you forgot to add/subtract some cells in the sums for "total net profit" and "total net profit daily" in version 1.3.

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[SgtSpike]

Updated to 1.3... includes all of JJG's suggestions and phelix's suggestion to include calculations for selling immediately (or in this case, daily, since hourly would be a bit insane and impractical.

Next update, I'm going to notate all of the calculations in comments on each calculated field, so that others can more easily double-check my work (and I can double-check it myself while writing out the notations as well).

I think you forgot to add/subtract some cells in the sums for "total net profit" and "total net profit daily" in version 1.3.

Hmmm... any idea what I am missing?  I double checked it, and I did find one mistake in the net profit if traded daily... I wasn't including the uptime percentage in that calculation!  Other than that though, everything looked good.  To me, at least.

[JJG]

Yes you're right, i'm checking using the last few data points of difficulty increase.
this is what i obtain


around 1,7 mln difficulty for november, 6 months from now. i used the "gpu" historical data.
To match this new value, i've to use 18% instead of 8.6% as "Expected average change in difficulty" in the spreadsheet.

18% is still going to give you way optimistic results, especially in the near term.

You cannot use anything other than 40% if you want realistic results. If you're going to extrapolate that far out and assume that increases will fall in the future to 18%, then you're going to have to modify the spreadsheet to have a 'difficulty increase' that decreases by a % every month.

[phelix]

Updated to 1.3... includes all of JJG's suggestions and phelix's suggestion to include calculations for selling immediately (or in this case, daily, since hourly would be a bit insane and impractical.

Next update, I'm going to notate all of the calculations in comments on each calculated field, so that others can more easily double-check my work (and I can double-check it myself while writing out the notations as well).

I think you forgot to add/subtract some cells in the sums for "total net profit" and "total net profit daily" in version 1.3.

Hmmm... any idea what I am missing?  I double checked it, and I did find one mistake in the net profit if traded daily... I wasn't including the uptime percentage in that calculation!  Other than that though, everything looked good.  To me, at least.

for short time frames the traded daily value gets much better than the stashed total profit. I think the cost of the cards is missing from the "total net profit daily". in the "total net profit" is the salvage hardware value included?

[SgtSpike]

You're right, thanks!  The latest spreadsheet should fix all of those issues.  Salvage value was not being included on the total net profit calculation, and initial capital expense was not being included in the total net profit if traded daily calculation.

[sniper_sniperson]

Is it possible to lower the requirements for this spreadsheet ie to work on Excel 2003 without installing compatibility addon?

[SgtSpike]

Is it possible to lower the requirements for this spreadsheet ie to work on Excel 2003 without installing compatibility addon?

Here you go:  http://www.justinbporter.com/bitcoin_mine_or_invest_1.32.xls

It gave a warning about the conditional formatting, so I'm not sure if the red/green highlights will still work, but the numbers themselves should be ok.

[sniper_sniperson]

Error 404 - Not Found

[SgtSpike]

Gah, my bad.  Try it again.

[phelix]

With OpenOffice it works like a charm 

[sniper_sniperson]

I'm refusing to install JRE

[SgtSpike]

I'm refusing to install JRE

Lolwut?  Office requires JRE?

[Raize]

OpenOffice has and does. Although I think there is a way to install it without installing JRE as well if you're willing to unpack the installation files yourself.

[DavinciJ15]

Your spreadsheet is very depressing.  It's so easy to forget how fast an exponential growth moves, I guess that's how we got a debt based currency.  In 6 months my 6 Giga hashes will get me 0.08 bitcoins per day!?

What makes no sense is bitcoins need to be $1000 in 6 months for me to continue mining.

[SgtSpike]

Your spreadsheet is very depressing.  It's so easy to forget how fast an exponential growth moves, I guess that's how we got a debt based currency.  In 6 months my 6 Giga hashes will get me 0.08 bitcoins per day!?

What makes no sense is bitcoins need to be $1000 in 6 months for me to continue mining.

Sorry to be the bearer of bad news... 

I would advise people against investing in new mining hardware at this point.  It is still very profitable TODAY, but with the exponential growth not expected to decline any time soon, mining is going to have slim margins, at best, in the not-so-distant future.

[darbsllim]

Your spreadsheet is very depressing.  It's so easy to forget how fast an exponential growth moves, I guess that's how we got a debt based currency.  In 6 months my 6 Giga hashes will get me 0.08 bitcoins per day!?

What makes no sense is bitcoins need to be $1000 in 6 months for me to continue mining.

Thats why I think the best place to profit is with BitCoin Business Davinci =)  BTW this is Brad from email we've been chatting back and forth about silver and bitcoins.

[Dobrodav]

404 errors.

[SgtSpike]

Should be fixed.  I am in the middle of switching web hosts.

[Tally-ho]

Very nice tool, thanks!

[evlew]

cans someone explain the "expected average change in difficulty" and the "next difficulty starts in this many days" fields?

Thanks in advance.  What are realistic numbers to plug in here?