When will bitcoin hit 252,000 USD?

[minerpumpkin]

Well, at some point it very well could be. Today this number is too high, by any means! We will still need a lot of growth of Bitcoin to justify a price anywhere near that number. But if governments should adopt/recognize Bitcoin in a positive way and it becomes a primary store of wealth, or payment system, we may be en route to such a price!

[djangocoin]

A price of $252,000 in era 0 (50 BTC/block) would have caused the Bitcoin network to attempt to consume about 30% of all the electrical power produced on the planet.

A price of $252,000 in this era, era 1 (25 BTC/block) would cause the Bitcoin network to attempt to consume about 15% of all the electrical power produced on the planet.

So, in order to keep the Bitcoin network from attempting to consume more than 1% of all the power produced we should all hope that the price does not reach that level until at least era 5 - about 2029 or so.

Of course all of these numbers are rough "back of the envelope" estimates:

Code:

    Original target     Subsidy   Est Fees  Power % of total world
Era   starting year   BTC/block   BTC/hour     GW power production
--- --------------- ----------- ---------- ------ ----------------
  0            2009 50.00000000 0.00000000 680.40           29.44%
  1            2013 25.00000000 0.00000000 340.20           14.72%
  2            2017 12.50000000 0.00000000 170.10            7.36%
  3            2021  6.25000000 0.00000000  85.05            3.68%
  4            2025  3.12500000 0.00000000  42.53            1.84%
  5            2029  1.56250000 0.00000000  21.26            0.92%
  6            2033  0.78125000 1.31250000  13.61            0.59%
  7            2037  0.39062500 3.65625000  13.61            0.59%
  8            2041  0.19531250 4.82812500  13.61            0.59%
  9            2045  0.09765625 5.41406250  13.61            0.59%

Do you take into account that in the future we will be generating a lot more power, have lower power & better performing computers? or are you assuming we're generating the same power today as we will in 2045?

[Odalv]

A price of $252,000 in era 0 (50 BTC/block) would have caused the Bitcoin network to attempt to consume about 30% of all the electrical power produced on the planet.

A price of $252,000 in this era, era 1 (25 BTC/block) would cause the Bitcoin network to attempt to consume about 15% of all the electrical power produced on the planet.

So, in order to keep the Bitcoin network from attempting to consume more than 1% of all the power produced we should all hope that the price does not reach that level until at least era 5 - about 2029 or so.

Of course all of these numbers are rough "back of the envelope" estimates:

Code:

    Original target     Subsidy   Est Fees  Power % of total world
Era   starting year   BTC/block   BTC/hour     GW power production
--- --------------- ----------- ---------- ------ ----------------
  0            2009 50.00000000 0.00000000 680.40           29.44%
  1            2013 25.00000000 0.00000000 340.20           14.72%
  2            2017 12.50000000 0.00000000 170.10            7.36%
  3            2021  6.25000000 0.00000000  85.05            3.68%
  4            2025  3.12500000 0.00000000  42.53            1.84%
  5            2029  1.56250000 0.00000000  21.26            0.92%
  6            2033  0.78125000 1.31250000  13.61            0.59%
  7            2037  0.39062500 3.65625000  13.61            0.59%
  8            2041  0.19531250 4.82812500  13.61            0.59%
  9            2045  0.09765625 5.41406250  13.61            0.59%

Do you take into account that in the future we will be generating a lot more power, have lower power & better performing computers? or are you assuming we're generating the same power today as we will in 2045?

It does not matter.  If one Bitcoin will cost $252,000 USD and you can mine 3600 a day then you(all miners together) can afford to spend $907 200 000 UDS/day on electricity to mine them.

[bitcoinbelieve]

according to Burt's assumptions, the current exponential growth trend line is way off and we need to slow down considerably.

according to the current exponential growth trend line, we would reach ~250k/btc sometime July 2017.

we'd need to do something like this... (which actually seems reasonable)

who is burt guy? Is he reliable?

[minerpumpkin]

It does not matter.  If one Bitcoin will cost $252,000 USD and you can mine 3600 a day then you(all miners together) can afford to spend $907 200 000 UDS/day on electricity to mine them.

Yeah, assuming that there still are 3600 BTC mined per day! I don't think we'll achieve a price of $252000 while the block-reward is still at 25 BTC! But you're right of course, and it's just another example of the self-regulatory beauty of bitcoin mining.

[fairglu]

Given the amount of dollars being printed, there is a non-negligible chance that when bitcoin is worth 252,000 USD those 252,000 USD may not have a purchasing power that is much above what 500 USD can buy today.

After all, an hypothetical 1913 bitcoin would have had the same purchasing power if valued at a few USD of 1913...

[minerpumpkin]

Given the amount of dollars being printed, there is a non-negligible chance that when bitcoin is worth 252,000 USD those 252,000 USD may not have a purchasing power that is much above what 500 USD can buy today.

After all, an hypothetical 1913 bitcoin would have had the same purchasing power if valued at a few USD of 1913...

Yeah, a hyperinflation of the Dollar or any other major FIAT currency is an option, as well. Although I don't think this is going to happen anytime soon, it definitely is a possible outcome here. Do you think the Euro is more stable?

[Bonam]

Hyperinflation is usually a sign of complete collapse of a society and its economy. Despite the prevalence of doomsayers on these forums, people more well grounded in reality realize that the chance of this happening to the world (or even US) economy in the next little while is negligible. In fact, the far more common symptom of the modern style of economic malaise is very low interest rates and low inflation, rather than the other way around.

[Wekkel]

It's more reasonable to expect a policy of going in and out of deflation picking the winners (TBTF banks) than outright hyperinflation. The latter destroys everything.

[minerpumpkin]

Hyperinflation is usually a sign of complete collapse of a society and its economy. Despite the prevalence of doomsayers on these forums, people more well grounded in reality realize that the chance of this happening to the world (or even US) economy in the next little while is negligible. In fact, the far more common symptom of the modern style of economic malaise is very low interest rates and low inflation, rather than the other way around.

Hyperinflation would be an extreme example of a currency or economy failing, yes. And I don't think that the US economy will fail in such a way! There's always been inflation when it comes to the dollar. Just compare its buying power decrease over the last decades! And yet it's still a relatively stable currency compared to the rest of the world.

[BurtW]

who is burt guy? Is he reliable?

LOL.  No.

[exocytosis]

You'll be lucky if BTC ever gets back up to 480 USD, if only for a short while.

[spazzdla]

Hyperinflation is usually a sign of complete collapse of a society and its economy. Despite the prevalence of doomsayers on these forums, people more well grounded in reality realize that the chance of this happening to the world (or even US) economy in the next little while is negligible. In fact, the far more common symptom of the modern style of economic malaise is very low interest rates and low inflation, rather than the other way around.

If the BRICs put massive sell orders on all of the realstate they have bought up here..... all the gold in fort knox * 1000 won't save us.

We have assumed the BRICs nations will not sell all of the debt they have bought or property...  we have been surrounded.. we have given up all of our weapons..  Soon we will beg for forginvess for the sins of the central banks.. May China have mercy.

[FUR11]

I guess we may see that price in about 2023. There have to be at least 5 more bubbles before we get into that price range, in my opinion. But if the adoption continues the way it does, it isn't very unrealistic!

[Biodom]

252K is more like a dream and is not a realistic number when bitcoin is at less than $500.
Surely, it is theoretically possible, but the main question is what is the probability of this happening.

Interestingly, I think that option analysis is the best approximation. Current price is probably a sum of mining cost (value) plus option on future price.
If you go to option calculator at
http://www.hoadley.net/options/optiongraphs.aspx?

and input 252000 as a target stock (BTC)price, 300 as a intrinsic value (cost of mining) and 6000 days (~16.4 years), then you get the fair option price of ~164 (after putting 100% as volatility and 0% as dividend).

$300+$164=approximate current BTC price.

If this analysis is correct, than current BTC price suggests that $252000 is possible in 2030-2031.

[zimmah]

2 years ago people would never guess bitcoin would reach $1000

$252,000 is not impossible or even improbable, it will just take a few more years

[Biodom]

2 years ago people would never guess bitcoin would reach $1000

$252,000 is not impossible or even improbable, it will just take a few more years

yes, 16-17 more