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Author Topic: Proof bitcoin price is nothing but a massive speculative bubble  (Read 1708 times)
DeadCoin (OP)
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August 26, 2014, 12:19:47 PM
 #1

The sole reason people use bitcoins is to more easily transact dollars (or any currency) from one place to another.

But would it make any difference if bitcoin price was $1 or $0.1 for its use?

Let's say you want to send someone $100 dollars and than you buy 100 bitcoins, send it to him, he receives them and sells them to get his dollars. Transaction of dollars complete.

There is no need to hold bitcoins except for hoping price will rise, and there is no reason for price of bitcoin to rise except if people hold them because of speculation.

Therefore, price is almost entirely speculative, because if it was up to usage price would be small since everyone would be selling them the moment after they recieve them.

You could say you hold it because you can buy stuff with it, but really you can't. You're just buying with dollars bitcoin represents (you're transacting dollars again). One bitcoin means nothing, you need to have it expressed in dollars to grasp the meaning of it. People need dollars because they're legal tender and they pay taxes with them, while nobody needs bitcoin. They just need it to transact those dollars, but they don't need to hold them.
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August 26, 2014, 02:10:29 PM
 #2

The sole reason people use bitcoins is to more easily transact dollars (or any currency) from one place to another.

But would it make any difference if bitcoin price was $1 or $0.1 for its use?

Let's say you want to send someone $100 dollars and than you buy 100 bitcoins, send it to him, he receives them and sells them to get his dollars. Transaction of dollars complete.

There is no need to hold bitcoins except for hoping price will rise, and there is no reason for price of bitcoin to rise except if people hold them because of speculation.

Therefore, price is almost entirely speculative, because if it was up to usage price would be small since everyone would be selling them the moment after they recieve them.

You could say you hold it because you can buy stuff with it, but really you can't. You're just buying with dollars bitcoin represents (you're transacting dollars again). One bitcoin means nothing, you need to have it expressed in dollars to grasp the meaning of it. People need dollars because they're legal tender and they pay taxes with them, while nobody needs bitcoin. They just need it to transact those dollars, but they don't need to hold them.

this has been said soo many times, but i will let you know since you are a newbie.

bitcoin price is primarily determined by how much it costs to mine a bitcoin. factored into this is electricity fee + maintenance + hardware + overhead.

the next factor is "news" and "whales" and the next one is normal end users.

doesn't get more complicated than that, supply/demand like usual.

it is not as speculative as most people say. there is some profound tangiblity built into it.
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August 26, 2014, 02:27:57 PM
 #3

The sole reason people use bitcoins is to more easily transact dollars (or any currency) from one place to another.

No. It may have been the reason a while ago, but Cyprus (rise to $266) and China (rise to $1,200) prices rose because people started using bitcoin as a safe store of value, and as a hedge against other currencies and political situations. It's the same reason people and countries store gold. So while some of the price is due to using bitcoin as a money transfer mechanism, speculation and hedging are other major reasons too.

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August 26, 2014, 02:29:08 PM
 #4

The sole reason people use bitcoins is to more easily transact dollars (or any currency) from one place to another.

But would it make any difference if bitcoin price was $1 or $0.1 for its use?

Let's say you want to send someone $100 dollars and than you buy 100 bitcoins, send it to him, he receives them and sells them to get his dollars. Transaction of dollars complete.

There is no need to hold bitcoins except for hoping price will rise, and there is no reason for price of bitcoin to rise except if people hold them because of speculation.

Therefore, price is almost entirely speculative, because if it was up to usage price would be small since everyone would be selling them the moment after they recieve them.

You could say you hold it because you can buy stuff with it, but really you can't. You're just buying with dollars bitcoin represents (you're transacting dollars again). One bitcoin means nothing, you need to have it expressed in dollars to grasp the meaning of it. People need dollars because they're legal tender and they pay taxes with them, while nobody needs bitcoin. They just need it to transact those dollars, but they don't need to hold them.

this has been said soo many times, but i will let you know since you are a newbie.

bitcoin price is primarily determined by how much it costs to mine a bitcoin. factored into this is electricity fee + maintenance + hardware + overhead.

the next factor is "news" and "whales" and the next one is normal end users.

doesn't get more complicated than that, supply/demand like usual.

it is not as speculative as most people say. there is some profound tangiblity built into it.

When there are real uses for bitcoin I think it will finally stabilize. Right now bitcoin is built off people transferring money to other people and then going directly to fiat, and the other part is investors. Almost no one transacts purely in bitcoin. I hope this will change.
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August 26, 2014, 02:33:56 PM
 #5

Holding bitcoins gives one a means to store money digitally without recourse to the banking system.
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August 26, 2014, 02:36:45 PM
 #6

this has been said soo many times, but i will let you know since you are a newbie.

bitcoin price is primarily determined by how much it costs to mine a bitcoin. factored into this is electricity fee + maintenance + hardware + overhead.

That's kinda of ironic... your claim is a mistake newbies make too. Bitcoin price doesn't depend on mining at all. It's mining that depends on bitcoin price. Because of difficulty adjustments, bitcoin inflation is fixed (currently BTC25 every 10 minutes). As bitcoin price goes up, mining becomes more profitable and more people start to mine. As price goes down, it becomes less profitable and people stop mining. You can't push bitcoin price up by just mining more and more, because adding more mining power will just push the difficulty up and make mining not profitable any more. And miners can't demand a specific price for their bitcoins on the market, because the bitcoins they produce are a tiny fraction of the bitcoins actually traded, and any high price they ask will be undercut by people who aren't mining.
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August 26, 2014, 02:54:41 PM
 #7

"Proof" should be replaced by "claim". I see no proof in ops text. Op is still trapped inside a dollar-centric world view that is based on nothing but forced acceptance. Nobody will have to sell his bitcoin for fiat in future. Purchases will be direct with fiat becoming obsolete.

Op also ignores the important function of bitcoin as a store of value. Bitcoin is not subject to the destructive "monetary policy" of central banks which inevitably leads to devaluation of fiat currencies, resulting in declining purchasing power of all savers.

Compared to fiat Bitcoin clearly is superior money, because it is among other aspects free of central bank manipulation, decentralized, non-forgeable, and easily transferable to anywhere in the world. People who don't realize it today will see the effects in future via accelerated devaluation of their dollars.

ya.ya.yo!

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August 26, 2014, 02:57:12 PM
 #8

Pay no attention to this troll. It's obvious it's some long time member creating a fake account to spread fud.

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August 26, 2014, 03:07:15 PM
 #9

"Proof" should be replaced by "claim". I see no proof in ops text. Op is still trapped inside a dollar-centric world view that is based on nothing but forced acceptance. Nobody will have to sell his bitcoin for fiat in future. Purchases will be direct with fiat becoming obsolete.

Op also ignores the important function of bitcoin as a store of value. Bitcoin is not subject to the destructive "monetary policy" of central banks which inevitably leads to devaluation of fiat currencies, resulting in declining purchasing power of all savers.

Compared to fiat Bitcoin clearly is superior money, because it is among other aspects free of central bank manipulation, decentralized, non-forgeable, and easily transferable to anywhere in the world. People who don't realize it today will see the effects in future via accelerated devaluation of their dollars.

ya.ya.yo!

But if you do not have your other forms of wealth, food, shelter, protection, clothes, and someone hacks your coins, you lose your cold wallet private key, you are screwed big time in a bitcoin-centric world.

I am not saying the dollar is not on its final leg, as was the currency in Rome before its collapse. The world is different, the world is changing, I get that, but if you cannot securely transact major commodity trades that begin and end in bitcoin you are left with a dollar-centric world. Even if you hate america or our gov't, if you have any real wealth aside from the .01% you are going to pick dollars and gold, over bitcoin.

Bitcoin is an experiment. It should only take time and resources out of your life that you can afford to lose.

OP at this point in time, has been proven wrong by the fact bitcoin still holds a relatively high price tag compared to its inception. For anyone to speak with certainty on the price of bitcoin is a fool.

Bitcoin is not secure. Especially considering 1/2 the world doesnt have any education practically, and even in rich countries, most of the people, even the rich are too dumb and lazy to take the time to learn it properly. There are only a handful of bright minds who have invested in themselves. <--- this is not enough to support bitcoin over the long haul.

Bitcoin is very nebulous and not black and white. There are too few very smart people involved, and way too many dumb people involved. Be careful guys.
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August 26, 2014, 03:10:12 PM
 #10

Pay no attention to this troll. It's obvious it's some long time member creating a fake account to spread fud.

You are right. I read his other posts. Roll Eyes He glorifies government and military-"backed" dollars...

Either retard or troll.

ya.ya.yo!

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August 26, 2014, 03:15:28 PM
 #11

Therefore, price is almost entirely speculative, because if it was up to usage price would be small since everyone would be selling them the moment after they recieve them.

here, this will help:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2R3Zg1KL_KE

and this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g2nXgK34HIM

Remember Aaron Swartz, a 26 year old computer scientist who died defending the free flow of information.
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August 26, 2014, 03:18:19 PM
 #12

Bitcoin is an experiment. It should only take time and resources out of your life that you can afford to lose.

I agree.

Bitcoin is not secure. Especially considering 1/2 the world doesnt have any education practically, and even in rich countries, most of the people, even the rich are too dumb and lazy to take the time to learn it properly. There are only a handful of bright minds who have invested in themselves. <--- this is not enough to support bitcoin over the long haul.

Bitcoin is very nebulous and not black and white. There are too few very smart people involved, and way too many dumb people involved. Be careful guys.

While this could be true, it could also change over time. And I think it will. The brighter minds will improve bitcoin and build an infrastructure for the less bright (profiting in the process). Bitcoin is not ready for the masses yet. But I'm confident it has the potential to reach the majority of civilization in future.

ya.ya.yo!

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August 26, 2014, 03:19:08 PM
 #13

The sole reason people use bitcoins is to more easily transact dollars (or any currency) from one place to another.

But would it make any difference if bitcoin price was $1 or $0.1 for its use?

Let's say you want to send someone $100 dollars and than you buy 100 bitcoins, send it to him, he receives them and sells them to get his dollars. Transaction of dollars complete.

There is no need to hold bitcoins except for hoping price will rise, and there is no reason for price of bitcoin to rise except if people hold them because of speculation.

Therefore, price is almost entirely speculative, because if it was up to usage price would be small since everyone would be selling them the moment after they recieve them.

You could say you hold it because you can buy stuff with it, but really you can't. You're just buying with dollars bitcoin represents (you're transacting dollars again). One bitcoin means nothing, you need to have it expressed in dollars to grasp the meaning of it. People need dollars because they're legal tender and they pay taxes with them, while nobody needs bitcoin. They just need it to transact those dollars, but they don't need to hold them.

Yes, people speculate on Bitcoin. I don't think anyone can deny this. So what?

That people speculate on Bitcoin does not prove the price of Bitcoin is in a bubble that will inevitably pop.

Bitcoins have utility that dollars do not. Bitcoins can be spent to anyone in the world who has a phone or computer, in minutes, with no international wire fees or chargebacks.

Do not waste your time debating whether Bitcoin can work. It does work.

"Early adopters will profit" is not a sufficient condition to classify something as a pyramid or Ponzi scheme. If it was, Apple and Microsoft stock are Ponzi schemes.

There is no such thing as "market manipulation." There is only buying and selling.
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August 26, 2014, 03:26:32 PM
 #14

The sole reason people use bitcoins is to more easily transact dollars (or any currency) from one place to another.

But would it make any difference if bitcoin price was $1 or $0.1 for its use?

Let's say you want to send someone $100 dollars and than you buy 100 bitcoins, send it to him, he receives them and sells them to get his dollars. Transaction of dollars complete.

There is no need to hold bitcoins except for hoping price will rise, and there is no reason for price of bitcoin to rise except if people hold them because of speculation.

Therefore, price is almost entirely speculative, because if it was up to usage price would be small since everyone would be selling them the moment after they recieve them.

You could say you hold it because you can buy stuff with it, but really you can't. You're just buying with dollars bitcoin represents (you're transacting dollars again). One bitcoin means nothing, you need to have it expressed in dollars to grasp the meaning of it. People need dollars because they're legal tender and they pay taxes with them, while nobody needs bitcoin. They just need it to transact those dollars, but they don't need to hold them.

Yes, people speculate on Bitcoin. I don't think anyone can deny this. So what?

That people speculate on Bitcoin does not prove the price of Bitcoin is in a bubble that will inevitably pop.

Bitcoins have utility that dollars do not. Bitcoins can be spent to anyone in the world who has a phone or computer, in minutes, with no international wire fees or chargebacks.


Interestingly, there has been no RUN on bitcoin. And even more interesting, there is very little that would cause a run on bitcoin. Either it is stable and grows from here, or you wake up one day in the next few years and the price is at zero.  In this view, it is safer than a bank. But if a bank is backed by unlimited US GOVT MILITARY backed dollars at least for the next few years I will stick with the military.

Some of the geopolitical shit going on in the world is fascinating when it comes to things like borders, immigration, military industrial complex.

If America did not have our current military, which other nation(s) would have invaded the US some 40-50-60-70 years ago. What is occurring now is almost like a zombie Apocalypse. Because there are borders, military, laws, etc, the geographical territory of the US is safe from all these foreigners(resource sucking zombies).. For now. 

We are witnessing economic wars, currency wars, because a human war against us at the moment is a losing battle, unless you are brainwashed by ISIS.

This creates a horrifying orweillian future, perhaps the US govt wants chaos, so when THAT chaos passes, the relative perspective says, this feels much more safe and comfortable than it was before. Except now the govt went from huge to monstrous, and the zombies never let up, we live in fear of ISIS, favoring more military stuff inside this country. Until we are no better than ISIS as everything you consume will be regulated by the gov't. And by everything I mean EVERYTHING
BitcoinBadger
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August 26, 2014, 03:38:36 PM
 #15

Bitcoin is mined my friend not just that you create it our of nowhere and give it a value.We call it modern days gold may be diamond in some time near in future  Grin
CtrlAltBernanke420
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August 26, 2014, 03:46:05 PM
 #16

Bitcoin is mined my friend not just that you create it our of nowhere and give it a value.We call it modern days gold may be diamond in some time near in future  Grin

Yes this process of mining is how the mechanism in which they take your money after you buy bitcoin, they then take your bitcoin and send them from your wallet to theirs via MINING.. Creating what? Another wealth sucking mechanism?

I hope you are right and I am wrong, but if I am right and you are wrong, YOU and EVERYONE is soooooo screwed! Heck bitcoin could be the universe/alien technology to eliminate humans from the universe, it being a self destructing object that like a shiny fishing lure will attract everyone like a school of piranhas except we're in a barrel (earth)

One major thing bitcoin has taught me, is to look at everything from a lot of different perspectives. The image refracts like light through water as you change your place/position. When it was at $30 rallying to $100, my perspective was skewed, buy buy buy, believe everything you read, dont ask questions.. shut up and buy.

I do not feel that people should just buybuybuy as much as I would like them to.. It is NOT in their best interests. Granted being on the dollar is almost as bad as being on food stamps. You teach a man to fish, do not just give him fish or else he or any creature of habit will come to expect it. And when its not there you do not know what to do cause all you ever knew was, on the first of the month that EBT card stocks up the fridge and pantry for a few more weeks.
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August 26, 2014, 04:20:13 PM
 #17

I don't think btc market is so much variable, if we compare to stock market. That's more variable in my view.

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August 26, 2014, 05:15:08 PM
 #18

Why to speculate so much, its not so much variable as you think!

Bad presumption.
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August 26, 2014, 05:47:58 PM
 #19

The sole reason people use bitcoins is to more easily transact dollars (or any currency) from one place to another.
 

If your starting premise is incorrect, the rest of your assumptions will be wrong too.

Yes, people use Bitcoins to transfer VALUE, that's what all money is for.

But the value doesn't have to be expressed in fiat currency.  The more bitcoin
is widely accepted, the less need there will be to convert back to fiat.

People also use it as a store of a value, a hedge against inflation, and as you point out,
it is superior for transfer.  This has uses for remittances and ecommerce, and the
superiority lies in its divisibility, speed, and low cost.  Many would
like to see it become the dominant form of money, or at least money that they would
personally use.  

Some people like it because it can't be confiscated, nor does it rely on third parties.
It can be easily hidden and moved across borders.  There's so many advantages
over fiat money.

Sure, some people do invest in Bitcoin and speculate, but because of
its superior properties, it is probably here to stay, and thus not just "a bubble".

Anyway, if you look at the 6 month price chart, there's no bubble shape.
It's been relatively flat in the $400-$600 range.



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August 26, 2014, 05:53:55 PM
 #20

Bitcoin WILL NOT become the frictionless currency everyone thinks it will...  Doge,Peer or something that can actually do micro transactions will.  That said bitcoin will become online gold, the perfect store of value.
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