Very interesting - thanks for pointing this out. This actually ties in well with some of my
observations.
I apologise for the length of this post and number of images. I'll keep the analysis short and let the charts do most of the speaking. Thoughtful corrections and/or suggestions are always welcome.
Overall price activity:
On April 2nd:
At about 17:00 a large number of shorts were closed, allowing the price to spike above $5. Then a massive rush of shorting hit at just the right time to cut the longs off at the knees. The activity seems highly coordinated.
The following day, April 3rd:
Talk about raising red flags - a little before 16:00 a huge 6,000 positions flood Bitcoinica. It looks like some of them may have been covered later in the day.
Things are subtly interesting on April 4th:
Almost 5,000 short positions are covered, as can be seen by the stable price and gradual interest rate shift. The short assault from the 3rd has been cleared, freeing that ammo to potentially be used again. Later in the day that short ammunition is deployed again, exerting steady pressure.
April 5th was more of the same gradually-increasing short pressure. A couple of hundred shorts were added every few hours, apparently probing support and capping any price spikes.
Late April 6th is again intriguing:
About 5,000 positions are closed into a managed price rise, most of which were probably the shorts from earlier. Note that gold behaved the same way into its weekly close.
Looking at activity from the 7th:
The situation reverses and longs apparently pull bids around 02:00. From 06:00 to 08:00 increasing selling pressure hit for the next leg down. Then around 16:00, longs closed out again.
On the 8th, another gradual rise throughout the day; very managed. Very curious situation with the interest spreads so close. I don't know if a short-squeeze is imminent, but the tracks do seem to show that persistent efforts at managing prices are being rebuffed.
