Lets get one thing straight: there will NOT be a run-up anytime soon

[illyiller]

Unless we all overthink it or just get too bored, the price has to jump significantly in the next week. The Western exchanges are being blatantly manipulated and, as a result, the Chinese exchanges are running much hotter than even BFX. Buy while you still can.

Why does the price have to jump significantly in the next week? Looking at a daily chart, it seems to me that we are indeed at a crossroads. (The weekly chart is uglier for bulls) I don't see a trend reversal yet, though.

Earlier this week the shorts completely halved on Bitfinex... they've since regained some of their luster but are still well short of where we were when we were touching 525. During the same period of time, the longs have increased. Using this as a measure of market sentiment, people seem to be willing to pony up money towards the upside. Additionally, China has been running hot when, previously, they were the source of the dumping activity. Thirdly, the whole GABI thing is more money in the pot (and if it doesn't do something then they have nothing to show investors... thus, I believe that we have an artificially constrained market right now). Finally, the whole Ethereum dumping seems to have hit an end.

There are probably more reasons cutting in both directions, but I think we are about to get some truly unrestrained action in the next week and I think the prices now, at least in the short-term, are a steal.

Regarding the bolded part, I think you're doing it wrong. Yes, shorts are still down ~2500 from the recent peak. That means there are much less shorts to squeeze. Meanwhile, yes, longs have increased somewhat -- and if you look at the slope, it is completely diverging from price. These longs are already out of position, so they are more likely to be squeezed than if they weren't underwater. Remember, most traders lose.

China is not "running hot". They've been staying within a few dollars of Bitfinex. The last $20 rally was extremely tired -- very little momentum. Couldn't make new highs. And the spike off 3105 this afternoon clearly failed miserably. With off-exchange supply and demand so invisible, and only being able to glean what I can of that from exchange movements,  I'm not sure what to make of GABI yet. I also don't think Ethereum was a driving factor for anything in the BTC/fiat markets.

To be fair, though, I'm looking mostly for a reversal of the daily trend. If we can't break above $530s, that seems very unlikely.

[Newbie1022]

Unless we all overthink it or just get too bored, the price has to jump significantly in the next week. The Western exchanges are being blatantly manipulated and, as a result, the Chinese exchanges are running much hotter than even BFX. Buy while you still can.

Why does the price have to jump significantly in the next week? Looking at a daily chart, it seems to me that we are indeed at a crossroads. (The weekly chart is uglier for bulls) I don't see a trend reversal yet, though.

Earlier this week the shorts completely halved on Bitfinex... they've since regained some of their luster but are still well short of where we were when we were touching 525. During the same period of time, the longs have increased. Using this as a measure of market sentiment, people seem to be willing to pony up money towards the upside. Additionally, China has been running hot when, previously, they were the source of the dumping activity. Thirdly, the whole GABI thing is more money in the pot (and if it doesn't do something then they have nothing to show investors... thus, I believe that we have an artificially constrained market right now). Finally, the whole Ethereum dumping seems to have hit an end.

There are probably more reasons cutting in both directions, but I think we are about to get some truly unrestrained action in the next week and I think the prices now, at least in the short-term, are a steal.

Regarding the bolded part, I think you're doing it wrong. Yes, shorts are still down ~2500 from the recent peak. That means there are much less shorts to squeeze. Meanwhile, yes, longs have increased somewhat -- and if you look at the slope, it is completely diverging from price. These longs are already out of position, so they are more likely to be squeezed than if they weren't underwater. Remember, most traders lose.

China is not "running hot". They've been staying within a few dollars of Bitfinex. The last $20 rally was extremely tired -- very little momentum. Couldn't make new highs. And the spike off 3105 this afternoon clearly failed miserably. With off-exchange supply and demand so invisible, and only being able to glean what I can of that from exchange movements,  I'm not sure what to make of GABI yet. I also don't think Ethereum was a driving factor for anything in the BTC/fiat markets.

To be fair, though, I'm looking mostly for a reversal of the daily trend. If we can't break above $530s, that seems very unlikely.

This is all fair. The rally was lame and worries me. There are fewer shorts to squeeze.

However, while some of the longs may be out of position, most of them really shouldn't be. We squeezed everybody there was to squeeze going into the mid-400s and, since then, about $3 million in new longs have emerged which should be well positioned relative to the current value. That said, who knows how much the last dip cut into traders' willingness to lever up, again.

I am hoping that GABI might be a sufficient nudge to bring the panic buyers in... we'll see... in the long run I think Wall Street will screw us all, but short-term I see it as a positive. I see up as the more likely route, flat as the second most likely, and down 20+ as possible, but becoming less likely.

[romerun]

There will be a rally soon then, as it comes from a guy who prefers shitcoins to the real coin.

[klee]

You are talking 100k territory. Bitcoin as it is right now is a better payment method than plastics. This is true online and it soon will be in your local corner store when they add the option to pay with it. The tech is there, all that's needed is for businesses to catch up. Which they will, so why wait when it is almost certainly going to happen?

Then there are all the other useful scenarios. I can take all my money with me wherever I go and not risk having it stolen, even if it's million or even billions. I can bring it across borders. I can transfer it to any point in the world without paying hefty fees. For those of us who like to travel, we can already buy flights with bitcoin and as adoption grows we will no longer need to bother with exchanging currencies. And there is no risk of a Cyprus for us, unlike with fiat.

Bitcoin is presently undervalued. Lines and graphs to come at a later date.

Well I doubt we disagree about it being undervalued in the long term but in the short term, it's incredibly overvalued. There isn't enough of a market for what you speak of above to warrant mass adoption. If I tell 1000 people at agriculture conference that they can transfer money around the world more cheaply 99% of them don't care. That same 99% already take lofty vacations and take money with them without fear of it being stolen.

All in all, they are more likely terrified of the idea that their money isn't insured, isn't backed and all that separates anyone else from their money is a random string. (a random string that if they lose/forget etc.. they are out the money).

Truth be told, I work in Bioinformatics using high performance computing clusters etc..  and prior to that worked as a software developer (if you check my post history I was selling a NXT password recovery tool that I created for a bit, cracked $~50,000 account at one point)   and even I'M not comfortable storing bitcoin on my own accord. I use Coinbase. I recognize that given all the ridiculous layers of abstraction by which computers work that nothing is ever secure on a personal computer. (the point being, if I'm not comfortable how many people can be?!)

In other words, those things you mentioned are never going to bring mass adoption. They sound nice as soundbytes but they are shit to just about everyone else. The lines and graphs aren't important, conceptually it's just not there yet.  *good talk though

Where are you from mate?

I am very interested in your background, before I mess with cryptos I had started an online Msc (Manchester Univ.) on Bioinformatics - biotech is my biggest love!

Probably you know Personal Genome Project (http://www.personalgenomes.org/) - I am trying to find a way to do this without having the privacy issues they have and be based in some sort of cryptographic/encryption scheme.

Maybe a blockchain could help?

Apologies for the off topic..

[falllling]

There will be a rally soon then, as it comes from a guy who prefers shitcoins to the real coin.

this dead cat bounce is going to finish soon like the old ones

[dropt]

this dead cat bounce is going to finish soon like the old ones

No dead cat bounce, live dog jump.  Sorry you loose all your money by selling at $460 falllling.  Chu Chu, no train 4 u.

[giveBTCpls]

You lost it all because you didn't had the balls to hold I guess. You guys seem not to learn. You should learn from Warren Buffet. When he bought the Washington Post stocks he lost a lot of money, then 10 years later the 10K invested turned into 380K, except in 10 years these 7K dolllars will be 700K

[maker88]

You lost it all because you didn't had the balls to hold I guess. You guys seem not to learn. You should learn from Warren Buffet. When he bought the Washington Post stocks he lost a lot of money, then 10 years later the 10K invested turned into 380K, except in 10 years these 7K dolllars will be 700K

"Be greedy when others are fearful" -WB, in other words; anytime falling says anything, you should feel good about your decision to hold. Just think how many people claimed the US housing market would ruin the entire country and next the world. Now years later there's literally hundreds if not thousands of people who are literally millionaires because they knew to buy up all those "worthless" properties and hold them a few years.

[kireinaha]

You lost it all because you didn't had the balls to hold I guess. You guys seem not to learn. You should learn from Warren Buffet. When he bought the Washington Post stocks he lost a lot of money, then 10 years later the 10K invested turned into 380K, except in 10 years these 7K dolllars will be 700K

Stay away from [bitcoin]. It's a mirage, basically.

[dropt]

Stay away from [bitcoin]. It's a mirage, basically.

WB doesn't invest in Tech anything, figured your prestigious economics major buddies would have told you that already.

[ensurance982]

No one has anticipated what happened last year. There may very well be another reason this year or next year for the price to start another run-up. But we don't know the reason yet. We simply can't see into the future. That's the way it is

[blade87]

eh i think it will slowly rise, no bubble though

Slow rise in crypto will be followed by parabolic...

[Leina]

You lost it all because you didn't had the balls to hold I guess. You guys seem not to learn. You should learn from Warren Buffet. When he bought the Washington Post stocks he lost a lot of money, then 10 years later the 10K invested turned into 380K, except in 10 years these 7K dolllars will be 700K

To turn 7k into 700k, bitcoin price needs to go up 100 folds. I am not sure it can do this kind of wonder again and go up to 50k per coin.

Stay away from [bitcoin]. It's a mirage, basically.

Warren Buffet belongs to the old money crowd. Can't expect him to understand crypto currency and cryptography.

[maker88]

Stay away from [bitcoin]. It's a mirage, basically.

WB doesn't invest in Tech anything, figured your prestigious economics major buddies would have told you that already.

remember they're students, they ignore things like how warren buffet missed out on every tech move ever because he didn't believe in the internet when it started either. he's old school. he likes to invest in debt and real estate, as well as stock in undervalued companies.

[falllling]

You lost it all because you didn't had the balls to hold I guess. You guys seem not to learn. You should learn from Warren Buffet. When he bought the Washington Post stocks he lost a lot of money, then 10 years later the 10K invested turned into 380K, except in 10 years these 7K dolllars will be 700K

Stay away from [bitcoin]. It's a mirage, basically.

bitcoin is going to nowhere but down, sell before it's too late

[dropt]

bitcoin is going to nowhere but down, sell before it's too late

You're dumb, it's never "too late".

[BitBits]

Where are you from mate?

I am very interested in your background, before I mess with cryptos I had started an online Msc (Manchester Univ.) on Bioinformatics - biotech is my biggest love!

Probably you know Personal Genome Project (http://www.personalgenomes.org/) - I am trying to find a way to do this without having the privacy issues they have and be based in some sort of cryptographic/encryption scheme.

Maybe a blockchain could help?

Apologies for the off topic..

And where are YOU from mate? The thing above in bold is very interesting and important. Do you have any ideas on the subject?
Apologies for the off topic as well...

[klee]

Where are you from mate?

I am very interested in your background, before I mess with cryptos I had started an online Msc (Manchester Univ.) on Bioinformatics - biotech is my biggest love!

Probably you know Personal Genome Project (http://www.personalgenomes.org/) - I am trying to find a way to do this without having the privacy issues they have and be based in some sort of cryptographic/encryption scheme.

Maybe a blockchain could help?

Apologies for the off topic..

And where are YOU from mate? The thing above in bold is very interesting and important. Do you have any ideas on the subject?
Apologies for the off topic as well...

Greece - we need people to send the data anonymously but at the same time verifying that they are really theirs and also prevent 'double spending'.

[bitleif]

OP might be right, there is still too much optimism for a rally. Only when most if not all of the optimists are gone will we see the true bottom. I don't think it has to take a year or more though, a lot can happen in a year.

[falllling]

OP might be right, there is still too much optimism for a rally. Only when most if not all of the optimists are gone will we see the true bottom. I don't think it has to take a year or more though, a lot can happen in a year.

bitcoin is going to drop lower and lower