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Author Topic: Accumulation/Distribution question  (Read 1051 times)
mav
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April 12, 2012, 11:15:32 PM
 #1

I'm looking at the Accumulation/Distribution chart for BTC/USD Mt Gox, the daily chart over 6 months.

"...the Accumulation Distribution Line is a volume-based indicator designed to measure the cumulative flow of money into and out of a security"
from http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:technical_indicators:accumulation_distribution_line

From the middle of March 2012 there has been a very similar flow of money as when there was the ramp up in price from mid November 2011 to the start of January 2012.

However, unlike the first ramp where the money flow saw a price move from about $2 to $3 - a 50% gain - this time the price seems to have been stable at around $4.90+-10c, despite having a similar inflow of money. What's different this time? How can there be a similar amount of money coming in, yet the price is so stable? Shouldn't it be going up?

Sorry no chart pic with lines on it etc, I'm not that forum-1337 yet. If anyone more 1337 than me could post it that'd be nice.
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notme
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April 12, 2012, 11:20:14 PM
 #2

Volume in USD


Volume in BTC

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
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notme
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April 12, 2012, 11:23:50 PM
 #3

Just a quick glance suggests to me there is a great deal more selling this time around.  This is enough to explain it for me, but I'm not much of an A/D trader.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
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mav
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April 12, 2012, 11:36:18 PM
 #4

atm at -3.29 not at 0

Can you explain this. What's at -3.29? What does being at -3.29 have to do with the OP?
mav
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April 12, 2012, 11:59:15 PM
 #5

look at the picture posted above using http://bitcoincharts.com (and it settings) and when i look at it on sierra chart i got -3.29 (default)

Ah yep I get you I had my chart on volume in btc

You're saying the shape/slope of the curve doesn't matter as much as the value of the curve?
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April 13, 2012, 12:45:50 AM
 #6

You're saying the shape/slope of the curve doesn't matter as much as the value of the curve?
the shape is not the same we need to go lower in order to get similar shape

But then when we get that low we need to go even lower, I think.
mav
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April 13, 2012, 01:56:41 AM
 #7

You're saying the shape/slope of the curve doesn't matter as much as the value of the curve?
the shape is not the same we need to go lower in order to get similar shape

you are look at the line from 25/03/12 untill today and 19/11/11-03/12/11 ?

edit: here is a big image http://i.imgur.com/mSaFC.png

Let's try this image thing. I see the same shape on the cutouts in the image below. A steeper slope in the latest period perhaps, but the same shape - starting with a distinct drop, then a very consistent 2 week rise, then another small drop, then another very consistent 2 week rise. Maybe I am not reading this correctly?

I know that it's not reasonable to say that what happens in the future will replicate how the first cutout performed, since there was a lot of speculation surrounding the good wife episode. However, from a non-prediction perspective, how come these shapes are similar yet the price chart during these times so different? Surely money coming in = price going up?

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April 13, 2012, 02:23:35 AM
 #8

how come these shapes are similar yet the price chart during these times so different? Surely money coming in = price going up?


Selling pressure equalizing the buying pressure.
The first time through, we had capitulation. So no one had coins to sell at such low prices. Then we rallied up, and those who missed the opportunity to get out at a decent price, have been selling since $7.

That, or we didn't quite go low enough for Mr. Pessimistic "M". 

proudhon
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April 13, 2012, 04:16:08 AM
 #9

But then when we get that low we need to go even lower, I think.
Quote
We push ourselves to the end, and when we reach it, we push farther! So I guess that's not really the end...is it?

Probably, we should dip back to below $0.50, I think.  No?
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April 13, 2012, 04:19:46 AM
 #10

Probably, we should dip back to below $0.50, I think.  No?
3.5

No, no.  Definitely not low enough.
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April 13, 2012, 04:24:27 AM
 #11

Probably, we should dip back to below $0.50, I think.  No?
3.5

No, no.  Definitely not low enough.
something like this


right and if you apply that to the bitcoin chart, we just entered the beta quadrant (top right)

adamstgBit
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April 13, 2012, 04:26:09 AM
 #12

Probably, we should dip back to below $0.50, I think.  No?

should I find a nice lil gif  Roll Eyes
Dude you CrAzY!

8 million... not 80 million, bitcoin is right where it should be

i didn't even know about bitcoin b4 it was 0.75$ how many people would have to liquidated their long term investments until we get below 0.50$ Huh  

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