POLL: Do you still expect a big rally in the next 32 days?

[HarHarHar9965]

There's no reason for the price to drop again, I'm expecting this rally for sure.

What's the reason for it to rise, at least in the short term? We need new money. For now, we have traders passing back and forth the same money, with merchants and miners adding downwards pressure. When and why will we see new demand to combat that? Sure, if big institutional investors and funds start changing the supply landscape (by buying all off-exchange coins available), price will follow. But I don't see any indication of that.

Where's that SecondMarket thread? They've been pretty inactive, right?

[1714900331]

1714900331

[Sampey]

We need new money.

We need new services. 

[Odalv]

At the end of year I'm expecting Hashrate at 700 000+ Thash/s.  so ....  bitcoin price will be at least $1500/BTC

[HarHarHar9965]

At the end of year I'm expecting Hashrate at 700 000+ Thash/s.  so ....  bitcoin price will be at least $1500/BTC

Do you base this purely on the expected hash rate? Do you have any charts/historic trends to back that up? I think there is more to consider here than simply the hash rate, to be honest.

[Odalv]

At the end of year I'm expecting Hashrate at 700 000+ Thash/s.  so ....  bitcoin price will be at least $1500/BTC

Do you base this purely on the expected hash rate? Do you have any charts/historic trends to back that up? I think there is more to consider here than simply the hash rate, to be honest.

Cost of HW  $4000[USD]/3[Thash/s]
and electricity $500-$900 / BTC will drive price

[WillyBTC]

At the end of year I'm expecting Hashrate at 700 000+ Thash/s.  so ....  bitcoin price will be at least $1500/BTC

Do you base this purely on the expected hash rate? Do you have any charts/historic trends to back that up? I think there is more to consider here than simply the hash rate, to be honest.

Cost of HW  $4000[USD]/3[Thash/s]
and electricity $500-$900 / BTC will drive price

This is an argument that I never bought, personally. How does the cost of hardware and electricity drive price? Why would these costs produce demand (and new demand, at that)...?

Maybe miners are just a bad investment right now.

[Odalv]

At the end of year I'm expecting Hashrate at 700 000+ Thash/s.  so ....  bitcoin price will be at least $1500/BTC

Do you base this purely on the expected hash rate? Do you have any charts/historic trends to back that up? I think there is more to consider here than simply the hash rate, to be honest.

Cost of HW  $4000[USD]/3[Thash/s]
and electricity $500-$900 / BTC will drive price

This is an argument that I never bought, personally. How does the cost of hardware and electricity drive price? Why would these costs produce demand (and new demand, at that)...?

Maybe miners are just a bad investment right now.

If somebody invest into HW then it is demand. if some thinks it is bad investment then it does not confirm it is. There are people who can think few years ahead.

[HarHarHar9965]

At the end of year I'm expecting Hashrate at 700 000+ Thash/s.  so ....  bitcoin price will be at least $1500/BTC

Do you base this purely on the expected hash rate? Do you have any charts/historic trends to back that up? I think there is more to consider here than simply the hash rate, to be honest.

Cost of HW  $4000[USD]/3[Thash/s]
and electricity $500-$900 / BTC will drive price

This is an argument that I never bought, personally. How does the cost of hardware and electricity drive price? Why would these costs produce demand (and new demand, at that)...?

Maybe miners are just a bad investment right now.

If somebody invest into HW then it is demand. if some thinks it is bad investment then it does not confirm it is. There are people who can think few years ahead.

But there has to be follow-through on the BTC/USD side of the equation as well. It's sort of like when a holder leverages long -- that is demand for BTC, but it is not confirmation that the market agrees with his already biased position. I suppose time will tell if investing in mining is a good idea right now.

[Odalv]

At the end of year I'm expecting Hashrate at 700 000+ Thash/s.  so ....  bitcoin price will be at least $1500/BTC

Do you base this purely on the expected hash rate? Do you have any charts/historic trends to back that up? I think there is more to consider here than simply the hash rate, to be honest.

Cost of HW  $4000[USD]/3[Thash/s]
and electricity $500-$900 / BTC will drive price

This is an argument that I never bought, personally. How does the cost of hardware and electricity drive price? Why would these costs produce demand (and new demand, at that)...?

Maybe miners are just a bad investment right now.

If somebody invest into HW then it is demand. if some thinks it is bad investment then it does not confirm it is. There are people who can think few years ahead.

But there has to be follow-through on the BTC/USD side of the equation as well. It's sort of like when a holder leverages long -- that is demand for BTC, but it is not confirmation that the market agrees with his already biased position. I suppose time will tell if investing in mining is a good idea right now.

If there are investor(s) who will invests $1B into mining HW then same investor(s) will buy all cheap coins after their goal is completed.

[Cortex7]

At the end of year I'm expecting Hashrate at 700 000+ Thash/s.  so ....  bitcoin price will be at least $1500/BTC

Do you base this purely on the expected hash rate? Do you have any charts/historic trends to back that up? I think there is more to consider here than simply the hash rate, to be honest.

Cost of HW  $4000[USD]/3[Thash/s]
and electricity $500-$900 / BTC will drive price

This is an argument that I never bought, personally. How does the cost of hardware and electricity drive price? Why would these costs produce demand (and new demand, at that)...?

Maybe miners are just a bad investment right now.

Miners with the financial ability will hold coins until price covers HW and electricity costs.

Difficulty and price are cross correlated, it's a two way street. Higher demand growth is not needed if newly mined coins are witheld from the market.

Right now mining is a bad investment from a purely financial perspective, in fact it's often been better to buy and hold coin than buy mining equipment.

[JimboToronto]

Right now mining is a bad investment from a purely financial perspective, in fact it's often been better to buy and hold coin than buy mining equipment.

Indeed. When I pre-ordered my first-gen BFL ASICs I paid in dollars, so I was able to more than double my investment, even at today's depressed prices.

If I'd paid in Bitcoin, I would have lost my shirt (bitcoins were priced around $30 at the time).

Obviously if I'd just spent the fiat on $30 bitcoins, I'd be a lot further ahead but at least I can feel like I'm contributing to the network. Or at least I can once heating season starts. 

[titulng]

The answer is no doubt

[oyvinds]

Cost of HW  $4000[USD]/3[Thash/s]
and electricity $500-$900 / BTC will drive price

Here is a basic example with just-for-fun figures:

- Invest 1 million USD in hardware & electricity for 3 months
- Mine BTC for 2 million USD during those 3 months
- Sell this BTC at market

Now you have 1 million USD in profit and 1 million USD you can use to re-invest in new hardware in order to do the exact same thing again.

How exactly do you believe this will "drive price"? That is among the most most ridiculous argument I have heard BTC bulls say.

Supply and demand of BTC is what drives the price. Shifts in the supply side (who mines the freshly minted coins and sells them) does not create new BUYERS and you need BUYERS to put upwards pressure on the market.

[dropt]

Cost of HW  $4000[USD]/3[Thash/s]
and electricity $500-$900 / BTC will drive price

Here is a basic example with just-for-fun figures:

- Invest 1 million USD in hardware & electricity for 3 months
- Mine BTC for 2 million USD during those 3 months
- Sell this BTC at market

Now you have 1 million USD in profit and 1 million USD you can use to re-invest in new hardware in order to do the exact same thing again.

How exactly do you believe this will "drive price"? That is among the most most ridiculous argument I have heard BTC bulls say.

Supply and demand of BTC is what drives the price. Shifts in the supply side (who mines the freshly minted coins and sells them) does not create new BUYERS and you need BUYERS to put upwards pressure on the market.

Or you simply remove the supply.  Take out the current regime of dumper corporate mines and replace them with the holder individual miners of 2012 and what do you have?

Your numbers are great for your little scenario but if it were to cost a miner $500 to mine a coin, selling it for less would be stupid.  Ergo if the price is lower than the cost to mine: the available supply is likely to deminish.

[oyvinds]

Your numbers are great for your little scenario but if it were to cost a miner $500 to mine a coin, selling it for less would be stupid.  Ergo if the price is lower than the cost to mine: the available supply is likely to deminish.

LOL, what a failure to argue logical and rational.

The supply of new Bitcoins mined remains constant.

If the cost of a miner is $500 to mine a coin then he will simply turn this older miner off and the supply shifts over to miners with newer and more efficient hardware.

There is NO POSSIBLE SITUATION, even in theory, that the constant supply of new BTC will be reduced any time in the near future. The next reward halving is not for years. Thinking "the available supply is likely to deminish" because the supply shifts from one seller to another is not reasonable.

"if it were to cost a miner $500 to mine a coin" then mining it would be stupid and miners with basic economic understanding will simply turn their miners off.

[Odalv]

Cost of HW  $4000[USD]/3[Thash/s]
and electricity $500-$900 / BTC will drive price

Here is a basic example with just-for-fun figures:

- Invest 1 million USD in hardware & electricity for 3 months
- Mine BTC for 2 million USD during those 3 months
- Sell this BTC at market

Now you have 1 million USD in profit and 1 million USD you can use to re-invest in new hardware in order to do the exact same thing again.

How exactly do you believe this will "drive price"? That is among the most most ridiculous argument I have heard BTC bulls say.

Supply and demand of BTC is what drives the price. Shifts in the supply side (who mines the freshly minted coins and sells them) does not create new BUYERS and you need BUYERS to put upwards pressure on the market.

Lol, do you know count to 5 ?
How many 3 THash/s miners can you buy with $1,000,000 USD when 1 costs more than $4,000 ?
How many btc will you mine with 250 * 3 THash/s a day and what will cost of electricity ?

Look at this http://www.thecoinsman.com/2014/08/bitcoin/inside-one-worlds-largest-bitcoin-mines/

"Each warehouse measured about 150 meters in length, by perhaps 20 meters wide… "

[dropt]

Your numbers are great for your little scenario but if it were to cost a miner $500 to mine a coin, selling it for less would be stupid.  Ergo if the price is lower than the cost to mine: the available supply is likely to deminish.

LOL, what a failure to argue logical and rational.

The supply of new Bitcoins mined remains constant.

If the cost of a miner is $500 to mine a coin then he will simply turn this older miner off and the supply shifts over to miners with newer and more efficient hardware.

There is NO POSSIBLE SITUATION, even in theory, that the constant supply of new BTC will be reduced any time in the near future. The next reward halving is not for years. Thinking "the available supply is likely to deminish" because the supply shifts from one seller to another is not reasonable.

"if it were to cost a miner $500 to mine a coin" then mining it would be stupid and miners with basic economic understanding will simply turn their miners off.

I'm not retarded, and the supply of new coins does not remain constant,  the system merely self-regulates to converge on an average rate of 3600BTC/day.  Further you assume a rational actor (miner) when that is absolutely not the case  (See: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=765706.0).  Read the comment by Mobius where he implies that the poster should keep mining and hold on the premise that the future worth of the mined coins would outwiegh the mining costs today.

It would be absolutely ignorant to assume that whether a miner holds or dumps his new coins is irrelevant to the available supply when the high percentage earners are dumpers and the smaller percentage are holders.  Hence my point.  

[JerryCurlzzz]

I for one, don't. I know we'll laugh at this topic in 2 years or so, but I can't see anything big happening with the price in the next few months.

Price cold go very easily to 550 but beyond that we need lots of newcomers and adoption.

Not sure about beyond 550. But if we go low enough, we could surely see 200-300+ % gains again. That's what I'm talking about. Just trying to time my buys. Not buying now though...

[Cortex7]

Your numbers are great for your little scenario but if it were to cost a miner $500 to mine a coin, selling it for less would be stupid.  Ergo if the price is lower than the cost to mine: the available supply is likely to deminish.

LOL, what a failure to argue logical and rational.

The supply of new Bitcoins mined remains constant.

If the cost of a miner is $500 to mine a coin then he will simply turn this older miner off and the supply shifts over to miners with newer and more efficient hardware.

There is NO POSSIBLE SITUATION, even in theory, that the constant supply of new BTC will be reduced any time in the near future. The next reward halving is not for years. Thinking "the available supply is likely to deminish" because the supply shifts from one seller to another is not reasonable.

"if it were to cost a miner $500 to mine a coin" then mining it would be stupid and miners with basic economic understanding will simply turn their miners off.

I'm not retarded, and the supply of new coins does not remain constant,  the system merely self-regulates to converge on an average rate of 3600BTC/day.  Further you assume a rational actor (miner) when that is absolutely not the case  (See: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=765706.0).  Read the comment by Mobius where he implies that the poster should keep mining and hold on the premise that the future worth of the mined coins would outwiegh the mining costs today.

It would be absolutely ignorant to assume that whether a miner holds or dumps his new coins is irrelevant to the available supply when the high percentage earners are dumpers and the smaller percentage are holders.  Hence my point.  

@dropt is correct!

Correlation between difficulty and price is a two way street.

If electricity costs are close to fiat profits then the miner (who has spare cash) will continue to mine and hold coin waiting (hoping) for a better price.

This goes especially for miners who heat their house over the winter and try and sell their coin at a macro top in the future. This scenario is less irrational as the miner will be paying some fiat into heating regardless of whether he employs miners or not.

Witholding newly mined coin from market will reduce supply and thus coin price will increase.

[arbitrage001]

Big rally is expected given wild fluctuation nature in bitcoin price.

We could drop to 350 one day and then rally back to 600 another.