[Daily Speculation Poll] :: this time its for real?

[adamstgBit]

[Realpra]

I am starting to not trust the trade data I see at all. Its too easy to place and remove orders or for mtgox to swindle us with a few ghost walls.

I am using http://btccharts.com/#m=mtgox-BTC-USD now - zoomed into the 5000$ range; much harder to swindle when it may actually get bought/sold up.

Right now I think someone is trying to push it high and get us to buy - I won't, already sold at 4.935.

At least I haven't lost money with my new strategy yet: Stay calm, calculate and buy/sell only with auto orders at the lows/highs.


I will need better data to trade by though, mtgox' feed is not it.

[adamstgBit]

I am starting to not trust the trade data I see at all. Its too easy to place and remove orders or for mtgox to swindle us with a few ghost walls.

I am using http://btccharts.com/#m=mtgox-BTC-USD now - zoomed into the 5000$ range; much harder to swindle when it may actually get bought/sold up.

Right now I think someone is trying to push it high and get us to buy - I won't, already sold at 4.935.

At least I haven't lost money with my new strategy yet: Stay calm, calculate and buy/sell only with auto orders at the lows/highs.


I will need better data to trade by though, mtgox' feed is not it.

http://btccharts.com/#m=mtgox-BTC-USD

sounds good to me

[Qoheleth]

I think we're going over 5$.

I also think that it'll be a long time before we can leave 4.xx$ permanently behind.

[adamstgBit]

I think we're going over 5$.

I also think that it'll be a long time before we can leave 4.xx$ permanently behind.

ya we are going to see this 10cent up 9cent drop over and over, but i think we are near a breaking point, where we will see a correction up and then a nice rise to 8$

[adamstgBit]

we should of gone below 4$ and slowly climbed from their.

but we didn't.

the longer we hold in the high 4's the more intense the correction will be.

why?

because every time we hit 5 how, many fools go short? too many fools

[Realpra]

Look at the curves up close they look too neat, auto generated.

I will wait, its going down already.

The manipulator wanted us to buy at 5 and now he is pushing it down again or he failed.

I will wait at 4.87 or so - then sell when he pushes it to 5.1 or something.

Real BTC val is around 4.8, been pretty stable there.


Why should there be a sudden rush to 8?

Is some country using BTC now? No, the fundamentals are the same.

[proudhon]

Look at the curves up close they look too neat, auto generated.

I will wait, its going down already.

The manipulator wanted us to buy at 5 and now he is pushing it down again or he failed.

I will wait at 4.87 or so - then sell when he pushes it to 5.1 or something.

Real BTC val is around 4.8, been pretty stable there.


Why should there be a sudden rush to 8?

Is some country using BTC now? No, the fundamentals are the same.

Real BTC value is less than $0.50, duh.

[Technomage]

It could certainly be real this time. We need to break $5.4 to really say bye bye to $4.xx. Right now we're certainly building pressure to test the strength of the current uptrend. The weekly lows are going higher and higher, with our current low at $4.7. Now we're strongly locked between $4.7 and $5.1, it's interesting to see what happens.

I believe that there are a lot of buyers watching from the sidelines, there has been no clear signals either way for a long time. The bottom seems to get stronger and stronger, however the resistance is super strong at $5 - $5.5 as well. Pressure is building up though and one of these days we will see a break. With the recent Bitcoin trends (news, type of news, their visibility) I think it's highly probable that we will see a move up instead of down.

The players in our little market seem to be very careful these days. Constantly scared. For a good reason though. That won't stop the price from climbing eventually if demand rises. I see an increase in demand right now. Money has exited the market for the last couple of months but now it seems that we're on the verge of a major reversal.

[Vandroiy]

I like how all the "BTC is too volatile to ever be used, the coins make volatile it dun work!!1" statements disappeared.

Even if another rollercoaster goes off, it's not reasonable to expect it to be as insane as in the past. It's a pretty expensive stunt for those who cause it. Be happy about it, keep a few coins in case the price goes over 9000, yay increased stability. Jumpy prices will come back soon enough.

[Technomage]

Indeed, with such a low market cap any stability is a complete illusion. It's nice to see that Bitcoin can be relatively stable for months, which is impressive, but don't get used to it.

[worldinacoin]

I should say that come Nov when the rewards are halve, the prices of Bitcoins are sure to go up.  Supply down by half, prices 100% up, however it can reach $20

[proudhon]

I should say that come Nov when the rewards are halve, the prices of Bitcoins are sure to go up.  Supply down by half, prices 100% up, however it can reach $20

The supply will not be down by half.  Production will be down by half.  The day after the reward halving there will be basically the same number of total bitcoins in supply as there was the day before.

[bulanula]

I should say that come Nov when the rewards are halve, the prices of Bitcoins are sure to go up.  Supply down by half, prices 100% up, however it can reach $20

The supply will not be down by half.  Production will be down by half.  The day after the reward halving there will be basically the same number of total bitcoins in supply as there was the day before.

Again, people are underestimating the moral impact this will have.

I am pretty sure that $10 will be easily reached come Xmas 2012 !

For now, I think $8 or $5 is reasonable, seeing as we had $7.2 this year.

[Dutch Merganser]

Indeed, with such a low market cap any stability is a complete illusion. It's nice to see that Bitcoin can be relatively stable for months, which is impressive, but don't get used to it.

+1

[proudhon]

I should say that come Nov when the rewards are halve, the prices of Bitcoins are sure to go up.  Supply down by half, prices 100% up, however it can reach $20

The supply will not be down by half.  Production will be down by half.  The day after the reward halving there will be basically the same number of total bitcoins in supply as there was the day before.

Again, people are underestimating the moral impact this will have.

I am pretty sure that $10 will be easily reached come Xmas 2012 !

For now, I think $8 or $5 is reasonable, seeing as we had $7.2 this year.

Moral impact?  This isn't a moral issue.  We're just dealing with ordinary facts here.  (1) The block reward will drop from 50/block to 25/block.  (2) The total supply of bitcoins on the market will not drop by half when the block reward changes.  (3) The total supply of bitcoins on the market will be essentially the same the day after the block reward change as it was before.

I can't say exactly how the market will respond to the change when it happens.  I do think it's being priced in already.  I don't think it's a sure bet that the price of bitcoins at the end of this year will be much higher, or higher at all, than the price right now.  My guess is that the price is going to go higher than it is now and that at some point this year we'll have reached the top of another bubble, which I think will subsequently pop (since that what bubbles do).  My guess is something like $6-7 bitcoins at the end of the year, even after the block reward change.  I know that doesn't seem like much, but that would still be a pretty damn good return, assuming enough liquidity.

[adamstgBit]

I should say that come Nov when the rewards are halve, the prices of Bitcoins are sure to go up.  Supply down by half, prices 100% up, however it can reach $20

The supply will not be down by half.  Production will be down by half.  The day after the reward halving there will be basically the same number of total bitcoins in supply as there was the day before.

Again, people are underestimating the moral impact this will have.

I am pretty sure that $10 will be easily reached come Xmas 2012 !

For now, I think $8 or $5 is reasonable, seeing as we had $7.2 this year.

Moral impact?  This isn't a moral issue.  We're just dealing with ordinary facts here.  (1) The block reward will drop from 50/block to 25/block.  (2) The total supply of bitcoins on the market will not drop by half when the block reward changes.  (3) The total supply of bitcoins on the market will be essentially the same the day after the block reward change as it was before.

I can't say exactly how the market will respond to the change when it happens.  I do think it's being priced in already.  I don't think it's a sure bet that the price of bitcoins at the end of this year will be much higher, or higher at all, than the price right now.

right, its never a sure bet

I think the effects will take time to get priced.  my best guess is we wontsee a speculative bubble, the market trend (weather up or down) will not really be effected, all that will happen is selling pressure will be reduced about 5-10%

[Tuxavant]

Moral impact?  This isn't a moral issue.  

Me thinks he meant "Morale". Certainly a minor's morale will be affected by the drop in inflation. I think there's huge potential for this event to affect everyone's valuation.

[notme]

Moral impact?  This isn't a moral issue.  

Me thinks he meant "Morale". Certainly a minor's miner's morale will be affected by the drop in inflation. I think there's huge potential for this event to affect everyone's valuation.

FTFY

[Tuxavant]

lol Woops!