nuff (OP)
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September 02, 2014, 06:14:46 PM |
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Actual production cost of one single bicoin is aroundt $530-$550. Any price below $500 is a steal. Buy now or regret years later. With difficulty ever increasing miners are getting screwed now cause anyone mining now is running at a loss.
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JerryCurlzzz
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September 02, 2014, 06:18:10 PM |
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Actual production cost of one single bicoin is aroundt $530-$550. Any price below $500 is a steal. Buy now or regret years later. With difficulty ever increasing miners are getting screwed now cause anyone mining now is running at a loss.
What if they just end up running at a loss for some time..... and price doesn't recover? Then hash rate drops.... despair sets in.... just saying.
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dropt
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September 02, 2014, 06:20:55 PM |
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When calculated in the OP over the time period from March 14, 2013 to March 13, 2014 the average increase in the difficulty and hash rate was 23.92% per adjustment period and the average length of each adjustment period was 11.38 days. Recalculated over the period June 29, 2013 to June 29, 2014 it was 23.45% and 11.41 days. Now, recalculating over the period August 24, 2013 to August 31, 2014 it is 21.12% and 11.63 days. Assuming the network growth rate over the next year is the same as it was this last year we get: Hash Rate Power Energy Cost Cost Date Difficulty TH/s MW MWh $/Period $/BTC --------- ------------------ ---------- ------ ---------- -------------- ---------- 11-Sep-14 33,220,936,877 237,808 238 66,349 $6,634,853 $131.64 23-Sep-14 40,236,446,759 288,028 288 80,360 $8,035,984 $159.44 04-Oct-14 48,733,473,526 348,853 349 97,330 $9,733,002 $193.12 16-Oct-14 59,024,880,009 422,523 423 117,884 $11,788,392 $233.90 28-Oct-14 71,489,598,585 511,750 512 142,778 $14,277,833 $283.29 08-Nov-14 86,586,583,575 619,820 620 172,930 $17,292,988 $343.11 20-Nov-14 104,871,710,060 750,712 751 209,449 $20,944,876 $415.57 02-Dec-14 127,018,241,359 909,246 909 253,680 $25,367,960 $503.33 13-Dec-14 153,841,618,762 1,101,258 1,101 307,251 $30,725,098 $609.62 25-Dec-14 186,329,486,300 1,333,819 1,334 372,135 $37,213,544 $738.36 05-Jan-15 225,678,056,071 1,615,491 1,615 450,722 $45,072,202 $894.29 17-Jan-15 273,336,153,086 1,956,646 1,957 545,904 $54,590,430 $1,083.14 29-Jan-15 331,058,561,407 2,369,846 2,370 661,187 $66,118,694 $1,311.88 09-Feb-15 400,970,635,767 2,870,303 2,870 800,815 $80,081,465 $1,588.92 21-Feb-15 485,646,557,708 3,476,447 3,476 969,929 $96,992,858 $1,924.46 05-Mar-15 588,204,117,648 4,210,593 4,211 1,174,756 $117,475,554 $2,330.86 16-Mar-15 712,419,512,763 5,099,775 5,100 1,422,837 $142,283,732 $2,823.09 28-Mar-15 862,866,387,600 6,176,732 6,177 1,723,308 $172,330,835 $3,419.26 08-Apr-15 1,045,084,236,901 7,481,119 7,481 2,087,232 $208,723,207 $4,141.33 20-Apr-15 1,265,782,371,309 9,060,961 9,061 2,528,008 $252,800,823 $5,015.89 02-May-15 1,533,086,956,002 10,974,431 10,974 3,061,866 $306,186,635 $6,075.13 13-May-15 1,856,840,218,301 13,291,983 13,292 3,708,463 $370,846,321 $7,358.06 25-May-15 2,248,962,841,151 16,098,949 16,099 4,491,607 $449,160,670 $8,911.92 06-Jun-15 2,723,892,885,897 19,498,682 19,499 5,440,132 $544,013,236 $10,793.91 17-Jun-15 3,299,117,405,623 23,616,363 23,616 6,588,965 $658,896,517 $13,073.34 29-Jun-15 3,995,816,323,188 28,603,604 28,604 7,980,405 $798,040,547 $15,834.14 10-Jul-15 4,839,642,281,734 34,644,038 34,644 9,665,686 $966,568,646 $19,177.95 22-Jul-15 5,861,665,181,962 41,960,074 41,960 11,706,861 $1,170,686,065 $23,227.90 03-Aug-15 7,099,516,184,307 50,821,092 50,821 14,179,085 $1,417,908,463 $28,133.10 14-Aug-15 8,598,773,298,472 61,553,356 61,553 17,173,386 $1,717,338,634 $34,074.18 26-Aug-15 10,414,639,578,109 74,552,032 74,552 20,800,017 $2,080,001,680 $41,269.87 07-Sep-15 12,613,975,712,232 90,295,733 90,296 25,192,510 $2,519,250,952 $49,985.14
In other words something has got to give by the end of the year, or actually before December 1Ignoring the cost of HW: the current cost to mine a coin is ~$131.
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NapoleonBonaparte
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September 02, 2014, 06:27:45 PM |
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When calculated in the OP over the time period from March 14, 2013 to March 13, 2014 the average increase in the difficulty and hash rate was 23.92% per adjustment period and the average length of each adjustment period was 11.38 days. Recalculated over the period June 29, 2013 to June 29, 2014 it was 23.45% and 11.41 days. Now, recalculating over the period August 24, 2013 to August 31, 2014 it is 21.12% and 11.63 days. Assuming the network growth rate over the next year is the same as it was this last year we get: Hash Rate Power Energy Cost Cost Date Difficulty TH/s MW MWh $/Period $/BTC --------- ------------------ ---------- ------ ---------- -------------- ---------- 11-Sep-14 33,220,936,877 237,808 238 66,349 $6,634,853 $131.64 23-Sep-14 40,236,446,759 288,028 288 80,360 $8,035,984 $159.44 04-Oct-14 48,733,473,526 348,853 349 97,330 $9,733,002 $193.12 16-Oct-14 59,024,880,009 422,523 423 117,884 $11,788,392 $233.90 28-Oct-14 71,489,598,585 511,750 512 142,778 $14,277,833 $283.29 08-Nov-14 86,586,583,575 619,820 620 172,930 $17,292,988 $343.11 20-Nov-14 104,871,710,060 750,712 751 209,449 $20,944,876 $415.57 02-Dec-14 127,018,241,359 909,246 909 253,680 $25,367,960 $503.33 13-Dec-14 153,841,618,762 1,101,258 1,101 307,251 $30,725,098 $609.62 25-Dec-14 186,329,486,300 1,333,819 1,334 372,135 $37,213,544 $738.36 05-Jan-15 225,678,056,071 1,615,491 1,615 450,722 $45,072,202 $894.29 17-Jan-15 273,336,153,086 1,956,646 1,957 545,904 $54,590,430 $1,083.14 29-Jan-15 331,058,561,407 2,369,846 2,370 661,187 $66,118,694 $1,311.88 09-Feb-15 400,970,635,767 2,870,303 2,870 800,815 $80,081,465 $1,588.92 21-Feb-15 485,646,557,708 3,476,447 3,476 969,929 $96,992,858 $1,924.46 05-Mar-15 588,204,117,648 4,210,593 4,211 1,174,756 $117,475,554 $2,330.86 16-Mar-15 712,419,512,763 5,099,775 5,100 1,422,837 $142,283,732 $2,823.09 28-Mar-15 862,866,387,600 6,176,732 6,177 1,723,308 $172,330,835 $3,419.26 08-Apr-15 1,045,084,236,901 7,481,119 7,481 2,087,232 $208,723,207 $4,141.33 20-Apr-15 1,265,782,371,309 9,060,961 9,061 2,528,008 $252,800,823 $5,015.89 02-May-15 1,533,086,956,002 10,974,431 10,974 3,061,866 $306,186,635 $6,075.13 13-May-15 1,856,840,218,301 13,291,983 13,292 3,708,463 $370,846,321 $7,358.06 25-May-15 2,248,962,841,151 16,098,949 16,099 4,491,607 $449,160,670 $8,911.92 06-Jun-15 2,723,892,885,897 19,498,682 19,499 5,440,132 $544,013,236 $10,793.91 17-Jun-15 3,299,117,405,623 23,616,363 23,616 6,588,965 $658,896,517 $13,073.34 29-Jun-15 3,995,816,323,188 28,603,604 28,604 7,980,405 $798,040,547 $15,834.14 10-Jul-15 4,839,642,281,734 34,644,038 34,644 9,665,686 $966,568,646 $19,177.95 22-Jul-15 5,861,665,181,962 41,960,074 41,960 11,706,861 $1,170,686,065 $23,227.90 03-Aug-15 7,099,516,184,307 50,821,092 50,821 14,179,085 $1,417,908,463 $28,133.10 14-Aug-15 8,598,773,298,472 61,553,356 61,553 17,173,386 $1,717,338,634 $34,074.18 26-Aug-15 10,414,639,578,109 74,552,032 74,552 20,800,017 $2,080,001,680 $41,269.87 07-Sep-15 12,613,975,712,232 90,295,733 90,296 25,192,510 $2,519,250,952 $49,985.14
In other words something has got to give by the end of the year, or actually before December 1Ignoring the cost of HW: the current cost to mine a coin is ~$131. You need to factor in the cost of HW as it will be useless after 4 months. A more reasonable estimate on production cost per btc is 600.
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dropt
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September 02, 2014, 06:30:58 PM |
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You need to factor in the cost of HW as it will be useless after 4 months.
A more reasonable estimate on production cost per btc is 600.
Not necessarily. Do you think that the large farms of Bitfury haven't already recovered their initial HW costs? How about KnC? Or maybe Bitmain? Further, to derive that $600 figure do you know what the cost per GH is for these large corporate farms? If you do, could you post the citation for said figures?
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Wexlike
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September 02, 2014, 06:31:13 PM |
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Actual production cost of one single bicoin is aroundt $530-$550. Any price below $500 is a steal. Buy now or regret years later. With difficulty ever increasing miners are getting screwed now cause anyone mining now is running at a loss.
How do you come up with these numbers ? If i assume that an industrial mining operator with access to really cheap electricity(0.05c/kw) has a current miner running, it is still profitable even with a bitcoin price of 55$. You can check my math: Antminer s3 440gh equals 0.008068 btc per day. The price of the units electricity for a whole day is 0.44 cent. (0.366 kw per hour) 0.008068 * 55$ - electricity = 0.443 - 0.439 Of course this is an extreme example, there are more expanses. For example the price of the miner. But if you already have a miner, that means that you paid for it in advance. You would let it run until btc goes below 55$. (insane thought lol)
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An amorous cow-herder
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September 02, 2014, 06:57:36 PM |
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Actual production cost of one single bicoin is aroundt $530-$550. Any price below $500 is a steal. Buy now or regret years later. With difficulty ever increasing miners are getting screwed now cause anyone mining now is running at a loss.
I think your logic is the wrong way round. If something costs more to produce than its worth doesnt mean its a good idea to buy the product, just thats it a bad idea to produce it.
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JerryCurlzzz
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September 02, 2014, 06:59:00 PM |
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Actual production cost of one single bicoin is aroundt $530-$550. Any price below $500 is a steal. Buy now or regret years later. With difficulty ever increasing miners are getting screwed now cause anyone mining now is running at a loss.
I think your logic is the wrong way round. If something costs more to produce than its worth doesnt mean its a good idea to buy the product, just thats it a bad idea to produce it. Bingo. All the perma bulls saying that mining cost will drive exchange rate upwards aren't really using sound logic. Surely, miners could simply be making a horrible investment (if currently mining at a loss).
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razorramon
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BILIBIT.IO -1st Decentralized Token in Philippines
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September 02, 2014, 07:03:52 PM |
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actually if you buy hardware (or most things business related)
you pay now and the price is paid off through the time you use it
lets say: item: 1000$ use of item: 10 months
-> costs per month 100$
of course how your "expenses" are calculated depends on what kind of expense it is...the calculation above also says that after 10 months the item is worthless...but if you can resell it for 200$ then it would be:
1000$ - 200$ = 800$
Costs per month 80$
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danynx
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September 02, 2014, 07:05:00 PM |
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yeah.. any amount below 500 are mere cheap coins
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jbrnt
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September 02, 2014, 07:10:25 PM |
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$500 is cheap if it reaches $700 by the end of the year, $500 is expensive if it drops below $400. It just depends on your own view on bitcoin prices. I personally think $500 is cheap, but it is because I bought some at $600.
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danynx
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September 02, 2014, 07:14:22 PM |
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$500 is cheap if it reaches $700 by the end of the year, $500 is expensive if it drops below $400. It just depends on your own view on bitcoin prices. I personally think $500 is cheap, but it is because I bought some at $600. 400 have been seen to be a very strong resistant point, so i doubt it will fall below that.
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JerryCurlzzz
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September 02, 2014, 07:17:06 PM |
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$500 is cheap if it reaches $700 by the end of the year, $500 is expensive if it drops below $400. It just depends on your own view on bitcoin prices. I personally think $500 is cheap, but it is because I bought some at $600. 400 have been seen to be a very strong resistant point, so i doubt it will fall below that. Well, we did see the $340 level on the last major spike down. So I would not say that sub-$400 is off the table. Seems some respected analysts here are calling for a revisit to the mid-300s.
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JimboToronto
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You're never too old to think young.
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September 02, 2014, 07:20:46 PM |
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Seems some respected analysts here are calling for a revisit to the mid-300s.
Respected by whom?
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JerryCurlzzz
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September 02, 2014, 07:29:32 PM |
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Seems some respected analysts here are calling for a revisit to the mid-300s.
Respected by whom? You may disagree, but I'd say that masterluc and RyNinDaCleM both command some respect on this forum. Most analysts here are pretty half-assed, but not them.
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truehold3r
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September 02, 2014, 07:59:29 PM |
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I've already bought as many sub $500 coins as I can so I'm ready for the next jump.
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razorramon
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September 02, 2014, 08:28:53 PM |
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but back then no one was mining bitcoins with special hardware...you had the mining program "running on the side"...that's also the reason why there are so many lost bitcoins....a lot of people tried it out and deleted it because it was not worth it (me included in 2010 or so)
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hodap
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September 02, 2014, 08:30:51 PM |
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I've already bought as many sub $500 coins as I can so I'm ready for the next jump.
Strong conviction, but also dangerous position you are taking.
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minerpumpkin
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September 02, 2014, 08:58:34 PM |
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Actual production cost of one single bicoin is aroundt $530-$550. Any price below $500 is a steal. Buy now or regret years later. With difficulty ever increasing miners are getting screwed now cause anyone mining now is running at a loss.
It could very well be. If you're not invested now and just getting into Bitcoin, it may be a great price to get your first couple of coins. If you are heavily invested, you should think about hedging a bit - never go full crypto. Investing when we've crossed the $700 mark will be a lot safer, since we'd be in a definite bull-market then!
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I should have gotten into Bitcoin back in 1992...
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