It'll be insanity not to buy bitcoin at sub $500

[culexevilman]

I would not say its insanity to not buy now around 500, brought some around 400+ and thought it was a good buy...

[twiifm]

Actual production cost of one single bicoin is aroundt $530-$550. Any price below $500 is a steal. Buy now or regret years later. With difficulty ever increasing miners are getting screwed now cause anyone mining now is running at a loss.

Exactly.  I don't think the day trading speculators have any clue what the cost of production is (they seem to consider lines on a chart and various other less important factors first).

I think your logic is the wrong way round.
If something costs more to produce than its worth doesnt mean its a good idea to buy the product, just thats it a bad idea to produce it.

Most of the people here never had a business so they don't get it

The miners are already operating on razor thin margins if COGS is $550 and they are willing to sell for $600.  If price drops to $500 then the liability of their inventory will become unbearable at some point.  They would be insolvent & have no choice but to stop mining

[MichaelBliss]

Actual production cost of one single bicoin is aroundt $530-$550. Any price below $500 is a steal. Buy now or regret years later. With difficulty ever increasing miners are getting screwed now cause anyone mining now is running at a loss.

Exactly.  I don't think the day trading speculators have any clue what the cost of production is (they seem to consider lines on a chart and various other less important factors first).

I think your logic is the wrong way round.
If something costs more to produce than its worth doesnt mean its a good idea to buy the product, just thats it a bad idea to produce it.

Most of the people here never had a business so they don't get it

The miners are already operating on razor thin margins if COGS is $550 and they are willing to sell for $600.  If price drops to $500 then the liability of their inventory will become unbearable at some point.  They would be insolvent & have no choice but to stop mining

Good thing I had several business and aren't one of those "most people" you're referring to.  The point was that the "price" being below cost of production makes it a little less likely that miners would sell at these prices.  I agree, something has got to give, either the exchange rate or the miners (i.e. network).   I'm betting it's the low price that will give, as it has the last 4 times we were in a similar situation.

[lyth0s]

Hobby miners with small farms can mine essentially forever at a small loss. Big miners will not be able to mine for long at a cost due to space and electricity cost (assuming they already paid for their hardware and it wasn't on credit). If big miners fail they could sell off all of their reserve coins, tank the price of BTC and in the end all we would have left are the small hobby miners again.

[Timetwister]

Actual production cost of one single bicoin is aroundt $530-$550. Any price below $500 is a steal. Buy now or regret years later. With difficulty ever increasing miners are getting screwed now cause anyone mining now is running at a loss.

Exactly.  I don't think the day trading speculators have any clue what the cost of production is (they seem to consider lines on a chart and various other less important factors first).

How can the cost of production be calculated, it's a nice indicator to know the mid term value of bitcoins.

Costs aren't the same for everyone. Electricity costs change from one place to another. The same for labor, land, taxes, etc.

[JimNastics]

Seems some respected analysts here are calling for a revisit to the mid-300s.

Respected by whom? 

You may disagree, but I'd say that masterluc and RyNinDaCleM both command some respect on this forum. Most analysts here are pretty half-assed, but not them.

Add WaveAddict to that list... it's definitely doom and gloom from all the respected analysts. I do think you'd have to be a bit of mug to invest heavily at the moment.

[ensurance982]

Actual production cost of one single bicoin is aroundt $530-$550. Any price below $500 is a steal. Buy now or regret years later. With difficulty ever increasing miners are getting screwed now cause anyone mining now is running at a loss.

Could very well be. People were devastated that they bought at $200 during the April 2013 bubble, but they'd still be up 150% today! If we look back at these prices when we're at $3500 or so, we'll regret not having bought more coins. Then again, we may go to $10 again...

[nuff]

Actual production cost of one single bicoin is aroundt $530-$550. Any price below $500 is a steal. Buy now or regret years later. With difficulty ever increasing miners are getting screwed now cause anyone mining now is running at a loss.

Evidence Please?   This might be true of people who have to buy overly expensive miners - this is not true for those who have desigened and built their own chips.

Take an antminer s1 running 180 Ghs @ 400w taking 303 days to mine 1 full btc,

Price of Antminer S1: $200
Electricity cost : 400w x $0.12 /kW x 24h x 303 days = $349
Total: $549

Note that is still not factoring in the difficulty increase every 2 weeks which actually means it'll actually take more than 303 days to mine 1 single btc.

[troisky]

You have to be half autistic to not see the power of BTC in the future, it doesnt matter how low it goes now.

[yayayo]

You have to be half autistic to not see the power of BTC in the future, it doesnt matter how low it goes now.

Yes, exactly half autistic. But if you're full autistic, you'll take one look at the hot air ventilated out of your miner and will know the exact price on 24th December 2024 midnight.


Personally I'm not sure which ones of the calculations presented are right. However, what I'm sure about is that price will not stay substantially below mining costs forever. I'm also sure that the cost of mining is constantly rising due to difficulty increases. Therefore Bitcoin price will also rise sooner or later.

ya.ya.yo!

[giveBTCpls]

Hobby miners with small farms can mine essentially forever at a small loss. Big miners will not be able to mine for long at a cost due to space and electricity cost (assuming they already paid for their hardware and it wasn't on credit). If big miners fail they could sell off all of their reserve coins, tank the price of BTC and in the end all we would have left are the small hobby miners again.

Well big miners will be lossing on a lot of gains if they dont risk for a while. Nobody said it would be easy. Also if they stop, these smaller miners will get a bigger slice of the pie.

[yokosan]

Hobby miners with small farms can mine essentially forever at a small loss. Big miners will not be able to mine for long at a cost due to space and electricity cost (assuming they already paid for their hardware and it wasn't on credit). If big miners fail they could sell off all of their reserve coins, tank the price of BTC and in the end all we would have left are the small hobby miners again.

Well big miners will be lossing on a lot of gains if they dont risk for a while. Nobody said it would be easy. Also if they stop, these smaller miners will get a bigger slice of the pie.

It's a game of chicken. The miners can't stop mining because if they do the amount miners can make will go up, so they may as well continue mining and hope the price goes up. Think of it as dollar cost averaging on autopilot.

The biggest impact will be that they can't continue to invest in new hardware. As the demand for miners goes down the companies selling them will shift to just mining with the hardware that they make. Eventually those companies will not only reach 50% of the network, but in fact dwarf all mining pools combined. It is my prediction that this will occur as soon as 2015.

When this happens the future of Bitcoin will be cast in doubt, there will be panic and drama, and hopefully a solution will be found.

[giveBTCpls]

Hobby miners with small farms can mine essentially forever at a small loss. Big miners will not be able to mine for long at a cost due to space and electricity cost (assuming they already paid for their hardware and it wasn't on credit). If big miners fail they could sell off all of their reserve coins, tank the price of BTC and in the end all we would have left are the small hobby miners again.

Well big miners will be lossing on a lot of gains if they dont risk for a while. Nobody said it would be easy. Also if they stop, these smaller miners will get a bigger slice of the pie.

It's a game of chicken. The miners can't stop mining because if they do the amount miners can make will go up, so they may as well continue mining and hope the price goes up. Think of it as dollar cost averaging on autopilot.

The biggest impact will be that they can't continue to invest in new hardware. As the demand for miners goes down the companies selling them will shift to just mining with the hardware that they make. Eventually those companies will not only reach 50% of the network, but in fact dwarf all mining pools combined. It is my prediction that this will occur as soon as 2015.

When this happens the future of Bitcoin will be cast in doubt, there will be panic and drama, and hopefully a solution will be found.

Well I guess a solution already exists for such an scenareo? I like to think Satoshi left it all planned and there must be a way to find his views on this, maybe he talked about it here in Bitcointalk or something.

[grappa_barricata]

It's a game of chicken. The miners can't stop mining because if they do the amount miners can make will go up, so they may as well continue mining and hope the price goes up. Think of it as dollar cost averaging on autopilot.

Don't think about consumer-level miner from his basement... think about the 1000m^2 industrial space factories. They can't keep going for too long without a positive cash flow. They want to, perhaps, but it is not about what they want.

[mustang77]

Buying daily coz im not insane.

[nuff]

It's a game of chicken. The miners can't stop mining because if they do the amount miners can make will go up, so they may as well continue mining and hope the price goes up. Think of it as dollar cost averaging on autopilot.

Don't think about consumer-level miner from his basement... think about the 1000m^2 industrial space factories. They can't keep going for too long without a positive cash flow. They want to, perhaps, but it is not about what they want.

If they do the math, they'd turn off their miners and use the overheads to buy instead, which would have gotten them more than mining them. It's just a waste of time, money and electricity to mine bitcoins at the current difficulty level at the current price

[exocytosis]

A couple of weeks from now, you'll have the chance to buy bitcoin at sub $300.

There'll be a lot of "insane" people then as well.

[srgkrgkj]

Bitcoin at $475 :O

[Newbie1022]

A couple of weeks from now, you'll have the chance to buy bitcoin at sub $300.

There'll be a lot of "insane" people then as well.

TITCR

[nuff]

A couple of weeks from now, you'll have the chance to buy bitcoin at sub $300.

There'll be a lot of "insane" people then as well.

You know most here even permabulls too wish for a chance to buy at sub $300? Heck I'd buy all I can even at sub $400. If you're holding bitcoins and you're not buying at sub $300 you have got to be the most financially retarded person on the planet