2014: The Worst Year for BTC?

[promojo]

The price is not always connect to reality: manipulation and a wrong perception of reality can really create bubbles.
I think the real price of Bitcoin at this stage is 300-400 usd right now. All above that value is manipulation.
It's a good thing. After all, it's the public deciding its value, not momentary pumps.
Adoption ps takes time, but the reward could arrive in a short time. My guess? November 2014.

I agree with you on this one... Current value worth anywhere from 200 to 400 USD/coin.

[minerpumpkin]

Are you looking at it from an economical point of view, merely a price-oriented one? Then until now yes, it doesn't look necessarily good. Also we've seen the fall of Mt. Gox - which may be a veyr bad thing or a very good thing in the long term. All in all I guess there have been many good and even great developments in the ecosystem when it comes to Bitcoin, so I wouldn't say it was a bad year per se. Also, it may still turn out great!

[galbros]

September 4, 2013
1 BTC = $123

September 4, 2014
1 BTC = $475

That's an increase of $352 (286%) over 1 year.

It'll be interesting to see what happens in the remaining 4 months.

I agree with DH.  This year is no worse than last when we were all worried about the drop from the 250 to 100.  Too early to close the books on the year.  However, even if BTC ends at this level it will still be a year of consolidation.  There are threats to bitcoin but it seems to keep chugging along.

[beetcoin]

September 4, 2013
1 BTC = $123

September 4, 2014
1 BTC = $475

That's an increase of $352 (286%) over 1 year.

It'll be interesting to see what happens in the remaining 4 months.

I agree with DH.  This year is no worse than last when we were all worried about the drop from the 250 to 100.  Too early to close the books on the year.  However, even if BTC ends at this level it will still be a year of consolidation.  There are threats to bitcoin but it seems to keep chugging along.

we're talking about 2014 though, so we'd have to compare prices on january 1 to whatever it'll be on december 31. if i recall correctly, we started the year out in the 900's.

[Suzuki]

I would say this year was pretty boring, but i can't call it bad.  We didn't experience any dramatical price drops, so the year was okay.

[Beliathon]

...we'd have to compare prices on january 1 to whatever it'll be on december 31. if i recall correctly, we started the year out in the 900's.

Yes, we can all agree how important it is to evaluate Bitcoin's performance by selecting the correct arbitrary start and end dates, which should naturally be based on the position of the earth on its revolution around the sun.

After all, one should always measure new technologies like Bitcoin by finding the oldest and least relevant technology one can think of, and applying it without thought or reason.

/sarcasm

Really, guys? I expect more intelligence from my fellow Bitcoiners. You disappoint me.

Forget the dates. Dates don't matter - study the patterns.

[Thekool1s]

Its simple big companies are accepting btc but instead of holding they sell which in return doesn't increase the price of btc. So unless big companies don't hold the btc there will be this negative effect going on :/

[BitCoinNutJob]

Even though we still have a few months to go until the end of 2014, chances are that this year might turn out to be the worst for BTC. By this I mean the first year so far that BTC will end up in negative territory, 2011, 2012, 2013 all ended with huge upward movements, yet this year we have fallen from January high of $900-$1000 to what we have know $475.

What does this signal in your opinion?

Its just a timing issue we dont have to break everything down by years necessarily. Why not break it down by months, days or 10 year periods?

[haploid23]

I think the real price of Bitcoin at this stage is 300-400 usd right now. All above that value is manipulation.

I agree with you on this one... Current value worth anywhere from 200 to 400 USD/coin.

On the basis of what? This thread is starting to veer off to speculation with these kinds of posts.

[asdlolciterquit]

The price is not always connect to reality: manipulation and a wrong perception of reality can really create bubbles.
I think the real price of Bitcoin at this stage is 300-400 usd right now. All above that value is manipulation.
It's a good thing. After all, it's the public deciding its value, not momentary pumps.
Adoption ps takes time, but the reward could arrive in a short time. My guess? November 2014.

for reward you mean a rise of the price?

[bitdraw]

I think the real price of Bitcoin at this stage is 300-400 usd right now. All above that value is manipulation.

I agree with you on this one... Current value worth anywhere from 200 to 400 USD/coin.

On the basis of what? This thread is starting to veer off to speculation with these kinds of posts.

most people just throw out random predictions without backing it up by anything.

i dont think anyone can predict the real "value" of bitcoin at this point, as we are in a far to early stage...

[BitCoinDream]

Even though we still have a few months to go until the end of 2014, chances are that this year might turn out to be the worst for BTC. By this I mean the first year so far that BTC will end up in negative territory, 2011, 2012, 2013 all ended with huge upward movements, yet this year we have fallen from January high of $900-$1000 to what we have know $475.

What does this signal in your opinion? This year has seen many breakthroughs and positive news, yet we are down more than 50% this year - unprecedented event in the history of BTC, since all the previous years ended with high gains. Does this mean that 2015 will be a huge year or is it just a small detour along the way?

What do you cryptoheads think about this phenomenon ?

Cheers,
Jay

September 4, 2013
1 BTC = $123

September 4, 2014
1 BTC = $475

That's an increase of $352 (286%) over 1 year.

It'll be interesting to see what happens in the remaining 4 months.

From $123 it went up to $1200. So, expecting $475 will go up to $4700 too. Buy time ?

[blatchcorn]

...we'd have to compare prices on january 1 to whatever it'll be on december 31. if i recall correctly, we started the year out in the 900's.

Yes, we can all agree how important it is to evaluate Bitcoin's performance by selecting the correct arbitrary start and end dates, which should naturally be based on the position of the earth on its revolution around the sun.

After all, one should always measure new technologies like Bitcoin by finding the oldest and least relevant technology one can think of, and applying it without thought or reason.

/sarcasm

Really, guys? I expect more intelligence from my fellow Bitcoiners. You disappoint me.

Forget the dates. Dates don't matter - study the patterns.

I dislike the 'you are here' charts.  The reality is that no one knows what is going to happen.  While there are some patterns, they never lead to accurate predictions.  And more often than not, patterns and TA is manipulated to support a trader's pre-determined mindset.

Having said that, I remain bullish for the rest of this year

[LiberyOrDeath]

Its simple big companies are accepting btc but instead of holding they sell which in return doesn't increase the price of btc. So unless big companies don't hold the btc there will be this negative effect going on :/

So what you are saying is that there is a conspiracy by "big companies" to keep the price of bitcoin down? That's way far out there in the lala land - but then again in this crazy day and age nothing is impossible.

More reasonable argument would be that the "big companies" don't hold btc because of its volatility, I mean it's not as if they are getting swiss francs - they are dealing with an financial instrument that can go 50% down or up in a matter of days if not hours. It is only reasonable that they behave in such a manner - it's called minimizing risk.

To sum it up: Your conspiracy theory about "big companies" is flawed. This has been circulating on the net for months now, and people just repeat this claim without any proof whatsoever.

Answer me one question please: If you were CEO of Amazon and you started accepting BTC as a form of payment, would you hoard it or would you change it into USD, EUR, Sterling, Swiss Franc, Gold, Silver etc ?

[thedonkdonk7]

Even though we still have a few months to go until the end of 2014, chances are that this year might turn out to be the worst for BTC. By this I mean the first year so far that BTC will end up in negative territory, 2011, 2012, 2013 all ended with huge upward movements, yet this year we have fallen from January high of $900-$1000 to what we have know $475.

What does this signal in your opinion? This year has seen many breakthroughs and positive news, yet we are down more than 50% this year - unprecedented event in the history of BTC, since all the previous years ended with high gains. Does this mean that 2015 will be a huge year or is it just a small detour along the way?

What do you cryptoheads think about this phenomenon ?

Cheers,
Jay

September 4, 2013
1 BTC = $123

September 4, 2014
1 BTC = $475

That's an increase of $352 (286%) over 1 year.

It'll be interesting to see what happens in the remaining 4 months.

That's great.
Spetember 5,2014
1BTC=$488.
It is increasing and I hope end of the year it will reach $550.

[yrask]

BTC gained allot of new merchants, bigger companies are starting to acknowledge it "even PayPal is saying relatively good things" so IMO it's not a bad year for BTC. Price is volatile indeed but it was less than ~1/4 this price last year.

[LiberyOrDeath]

Even though we still have a few months to go until the end of 2014, chances are that this year might turn out to be the worst for BTC. By this I mean the first year so far that BTC will end up in negative territory, 2011, 2012, 2013 all ended with huge upward movements, yet this year we have fallen from January high of $900-$1000 to what we have know $475.

What does this signal in your opinion? This year has seen many breakthroughs and positive news, yet we are down more than 50% this year - unprecedented event in the history of BTC, since all the previous years ended with high gains. Does this mean that 2015 will be a huge year or is it just a small detour along the way?

What do you cryptoheads think about this phenomenon ?

Cheers,
Jay

September 4, 2013
1 BTC = $123

September 4, 2014
1 BTC = $475

That's an increase of $352 (286%) over 1 year.

It'll be interesting to see what happens in the remaining 4 months.

That's great.
Spetember 5,2014
1BTC=$488.
It is increasing and I hope end of the year it will reach $550.

My opinion is that the price will not change radically in the last few months of 2014. As much as I would want BTC to be 2,000 USD in December, I have a strong feeling that is not going to happen - exactly because many people are expecting to see the pattern from the last year October - December spike. Majority of this kind will wait until January or February of 2015 and then will slowly give up - so quite a few weak hands will be leaving the ship. Which is exactly what the smart btc players want - to get more time to accumulate btc at these prices (400-600 USD).

2016 should be a year when we reach the long waited milestone of 3,000 USD and possibly 5,000 USD. And realistically 2020 is the date for 10,000 USD in my book. It might come sooner it might come later but that's the rough timeframe. 100,000 USD and all that talk is possible but most of us will not see it in our lifetimes, next generations will see btc at $ 1 mil for sure, in a 100 years it might even be worth multiple millions. And people will still be mining BTC in a century from now ! Maybe on Mars

[Kprawn]

Its simple big companies are accepting btc but instead of holding they sell which in return doesn't increase the price of btc. So unless big companies don't hold the btc there will be this negative effect going on :/

Big companies will never "hoard" BTC to stimulate the price. They need to pay for things like we do, on a monthly basis. {Electricity Bill / Transport cost / Salaries etc} So do not expect them to hoard BTC

The answer is simple = Get more people {general consumers} to adopt BTC - That would push the price up, because demand for it is higher.

The single biggest thing, to do, would be to get gold investors, to re-invest a small % of their gold investments, into BTC {That will cause a mayor spike in the price, in the short run} But what is happening is the opposite... We have BTC buying gold. {Because gold is seen, as a safe investment} And that is just as bad as, merchants, exchanging BTC directly to dollars.

[Lauda]

Being impatient is a bad thing, and it's very common in Bitcoin.
Exactly why would it be the worst year, because the price is not moving? Is Bitcoin meant to be used to meant to be held for future gains?
Looking at development, infrastructure and adoption in 2014, this is the best year.

[Buo]

This won't be the worst year, people only wants to get rich quick but we need these periods of consolidation to rise again in the future.