What if there is no captitulation?

[razorramon]

I am wondering...what if there is no "final capitulation"?

Here in speculations board we use to see bitcoin just from the trading perspective...
most of people try to use tools and words that suit for the usual trading case...but bitcoin is different...

it's new (still)
it's deflationary (!!!)
the demand is growing
sooner or later people will not "sell" bitcoins to fiat because there is no need to

is there a product that is similar to this that can be taken as something to compare to?

anyway ... the market outside of bitcoin doesn't care about where in the trading curve we are...a newbie just buy or doesn't buy....since people who don't buy don't matter for bitcoin...people who buy usually just buy...
especially newcomers don't have a good knowlegde of trading and buy because it looks cheap or the buddy or someone else was recommending it

so unless we don't see a huge drop of about 100$ they propably don't care and buy in anyway

i mean if whatever bears try to do is more or less balanced by newcomers and people who are positive about bitcoin in the near future...we could get out of this without a "final capitulation"

EDIT: fallling will be deleted as soon as i see a post of him

[1714863860]

1714863860

[Hfertig]

it's new (still)
it's deflationary (!!!)
the demand is growing
sooner or later people will not "sell" bitcoins to fiat because there is no need to

Nobody knows if there will be a capitulation or not....

But...

Bitcoin is not new... it is from 2009. It is as new as the Iphone 3.
Bitcoin is currently not deflationary. 3600 bitcoins are mined daily. The current inflation rate is above 10%. Come back in 10 years
Demand is not growing, otherwise we would go up. Supply is growing as more people are selling than buying.
People will always need fiat for rent, taxes, food. Only if you believe Bitcoin will be the sole currency in future this might be the case. This is in my view highly unlikely...

[razorramon]

Bitcoin is not new... it is from 2009. It is as new as the Iphone 3.

New to the masses...Smartphones & Touchscreens (and tablets...) were much older than the iphone...also apple already had a brand to build on...bitcoin startet from zero...most of the people haven't even heard of bitcoin...if you want it to compare with the iphone: we are more at the time where symbian os was popular amongst people who wanted to do more with their mobile phone...you premise that bitcoin is already as popular as the iphone...it isn't yet

Bitcoin is currently not deflationary. 3600 bitcoins are mined daily. The current inflation rate is above 10%. Come back in 10 years

that's true...there are already discussions in the board about this point...so there is no final statement here at this time...

Demand is not growing, otherwise we would go up. Supply is growing as more people are selling than buying.

actually fewer are selling...they are also selling the same amount otherwise we would go down (the dumping weeks before was also not a mass leave of bitcoin)...demand is increasing slowly but steady...only traders keep the price down...we would not be at moon level of course...but we could be back at 550 somewhere

People will always need fiat for rent, taxes, food. Only if you believe Bitcoin will be the sole currency in future this might be the case. This is in my view highly unlikely...

people also needed fiat to buy anything...adoption is rising...i could get drunk in vienna with bitcoins (there is one bar yet)...taxes is a different thing...but a lot of things can already be bought with bitcoin

[Hfertig]

Bitcoin has been all over the press during the last a few month. Everyone who reads the newspapers or watches the news has heard about bitcoin. Even by speaking to people, most have heard about it. (At least in the western world) Asking people if they want to buy some coins, nobody is interested. This has been very different in 2011, 2012 and 2013...

I don´t think that traders hold the price down. It is the early adaptors who are now able to spend their coins for luxury goods. All the merchant adoption is nothing else than an early adaptor tax evasion scheme. If they cash out in fiat the taxmen will come and want his share... very difficult to do that with your new plasma... Merchants sell their coins instantly adding to the selling pressure.

Don´t get me wrong, I am a big fan of bitcoin but it has appreciated a lot in a very short time frame. Reminds me of the Nasdaq and the Neuer Markt in 1999-2000. In my view the bubble has not deflated yet. I am a buyer in the high two digit, very low three digit price range, not scared to miss any train. I´ve made my profit and still have a few coins...

Given that we have a daily supply of 3600 coins, we need 1,7 Mio USD new fiat per day just to absorb the inflation. To me it looks that there is more supply than demand, otherwise we would go up...

To come back to the question of capitulation. If it is not coming to release some air out of the bubble, we will, in my view, see an ongoing constant decline of prices.

[spiderbrain]

What if this is the final capitulation?

[razorramon]

Bitcoin has been all over the press during the last a few month. Everyone who reads the newspapers or watches the news has heard about bitcoin. Even by speaking to people, most have heard about it. (At least in the western world) Asking people if they want to buy some coins, nobody is interested. This has been very different in 2011, 2012 and 2013...

I don´t think that traders hold the price down. It is the early adaptors who are now able to spend their coins for luxury goods. All the merchant adoption is nothing else than an early adaptor tax evasion scheme. If they cash out in fiat the taxmen will come and want his share... very difficult to do that with your new plasma... Merchants sell their coins instantly adding to the selling pressure.

I guess we just have different opinions on this...in Europe most of the people have no idea...everyone i talked to and knew at least something connects bitcoin only to silk road...they didn't even knew about mt. gox
i also see the more interesting markets in south america, africa and asia (also the places where a lot of marketing is going on these days)

Given that we have a daily supply of 3600 coins, we need 1,7 Mio USD new fiat per day just to absorb the inflation. To me it looks that there is more supply than demand, otherwise we would go up...
To come back to the question of capitulation. If it is not coming to release some air out of the bubble, we will, in my view, see an ongoing constant decline of prices.

ok your whole point is about the daily supply of the 3600 coins
if every minute 10 people all over the world buy bitcoins worth of 100$ you have 1.44 mio usd...that's 14.400 new people every day or 5,256,000 in one year who only bought in for 100$

[Hfertig]

Bitcoin has been all over the press during the last a few month. Everyone who reads the newspapers or watches the news has heard about bitcoin. Even by speaking to people, most have heard about it. (At least in the western world) Asking people if they want to buy some coins, nobody is interested. This has been very different in 2011, 2012 and 2013...

I don´t think that traders hold the price down. It is the early adaptors who are now able to spend their coins for luxury goods. All the merchant adoption is nothing else than an early adaptor tax evasion scheme. If they cash out in fiat the taxmen will come and want his share... very difficult to do that with your new plasma... Merchants sell their coins instantly adding to the selling pressure.

I guess we just have different opinions on this...in Europe most of the people have no idea...everyone i talked to and knew at least something connects bitcoin only to silk road...they didn't even knew about mt. gox
i also see the more interesting markets in south america, africa and asia (also the places where a lot of marketing is going on these days)

Given that we have a daily supply of 3600 coins, we need 1,7 Mio USD new fiat per day just to absorb the inflation. To me it looks that there is more supply than demand, otherwise we would go up...
To come back to the question of capitulation. If it is not coming to release some air out of the bubble, we will, in my view, see an ongoing constant decline of prices.

ok your whole point is about the daily supply of the 3600 coins
if every minute 10 people all over the world buy bitcoins worth of 100$ you have 1.44 mio usd...that's 14.400 new people every day or 5,256,000 in one year who only bought in for 100$

No, my whole point is not only about the daily supply of 3600 coins.
It is about merchants selling coins instantly, Early adopters cashing out, not many new people buying and the daily supply.

Some things you can add to the list:
- More SR coins will be auctioned in the future
- Bitfinex credit bubble
- Downtrend
- Slow confirmations, have you ever bought something with bitcoin ?
- Thin order books on exchanges

[razorramon]

No, my whole point is not only about the daily supply of 3600 coins.
It is about merchants selling coins instantly, Early adopters cashing out, not many new people buying and the daily supply.

Some things you can add to the list:
- More SR coins will be auctioned in the future
- Bitfinex credit bubble
- Downtrend
- Slow confirmations, have you ever bought something with bitcoin ?
- Thin order books on exchanges

-Not every merchant is selling instantly...some do...some don't - there is also the possibliity of an instant buyback (coinbase?)
-Auctions will be a good opportunity for HUGE whales
-credit bubble...ähhhm no    https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=667105.0
-downtrend...this is what this thread is about...what if the downtrend is stopping without the capitulation
-slow confirmations ... still MUCH faster than a bank transfer...also there is a lot of money in silicon valley to solve problems like this

the other points are just a matter of time
and when it comes to selling...i already said...we would not stop here more selling than buying

[Tzupy]

Bitcoin has been all over the press during the last a few month. Everyone who reads the newspapers or watches the news has heard about bitcoin. Even by speaking to people, most have heard about it. (At least in the western world) Asking people if they want to buy some coins, nobody is interested. This has been very different in 2011, 2012 and 2013...

I don´t think that traders hold the price down. It is the early adaptors who are now able to spend their coins for luxury goods. All the merchant adoption is nothing else than an early adaptor tax evasion scheme. If they cash out in fiat the taxmen will come and want his share... very difficult to do that with your new plasma OLED... Merchants sell their coins instantly adding to the selling pressure.

Don´t get me wrong, I am a big fan of bitcoin but it has appreciated a lot in a very short time frame. Reminds me of the Nasdaq and the Neuer Markt in 1999-2000. In my view the bubble has not deflated yet. I am a buyer in the high two digit, very low three digit price range, not scared to miss any train. I´ve made my profit and still have a few coins...

Given that we have a daily supply of 3600 coins, we need 1,7 Mio USD new fiat per day just to absorb the inflation. To me it looks that there is more supply than demand, otherwise we would go up...

To come back to the question of capitulation. If it is not coming to release some air out of the bubble, we will, in my view, see an ongoing constant decline of prices.

A small correction, plasma is 2013, OLED is 2014. Panasonic have (unfortunately) stopped making plasmas.
While I agree that early adopters spending BTC does depress the price, I am not convinced that it is significant now.
It may have been significant in February, when they saw the uptrend break. I would like to see some verifiable data that
clarifies this, how much BTC spending adds to the miners' selling pressure. It would help understand the long term price evolution.
As for capitulation, we are within it since the 5th June, but due to the hodling mentality we haven't dropped much yet.

[NotLambchop]

...
the demand is growing
...

If the demand is growing faster than the supply, the price increases.  That is one of the most fundamental concepts in economics, and the basic tenet of free market economy.

Not all economy, mind you.  Not planned economies like Soviet Russia, for instance.

Are you a Communist, Comrade?

[NotLambchop]

...
-slow confirmations ... still MUCH faster than a bank transfer...also there is a lot of money in silicon valley to solve problems like this
...

Do you understand how Bitcoin works?  Faster confirm times = different coin.

[razorramon]

it could be true that we are already in capitulation phase...

i meant what if the "blood on the streets" will not happen this time

it's doesn't always have to be a pandemic world wide desaster

[razorramon]

If the demand is growing faster than the supply, the price increases.  That is one of the most fundamental concepts in economics, and the basic tenet of free market economy.

i already said in another thread that i think the price is kept down by traders to buy in cheaper or to win some time for COIN or whoever

[razorramon]

Do you understand how Bitcoin works?  Faster confirm times = different coin.

there will be workarounds...what are you thinking? the way we use bitcoin now will stay forever? lol
what do you think do all the bitcoin start ups do? building new exchanges and atms?
this is just the beginning...

the internet also evolved but is still the internet...

[NotLambchop]

If the demand is growing faster than the supply, the price increases.  That is one of the most fundamental concepts in economics, and the basic tenet of free market economy.

i already said in another thread that i think the price is kept down by traders to buy in cheaper or to win some time for COIN or whoever

I see that you're not a Communist--you simply don't understand free market economy.

What you are describing is almost a metaphysical impossibility.
Unless everyone with money to spare is in cahoots, simply buying BTC at its artificially low price will result in higher prices.  See supply and demand.

If you are posting this simply because you are invested up to the gills and are worried, don't.  This just reeks of desperation.

I'm a Bitcoiner myself.  I hold Bitcoin--not as much as I once did, but certainly enough not to wish its price to tank.
I just think that shilling Bitcoin only harms it in the long run.
The people who bought into the hype and bought @$1k are certainly not our friends.

[NotLambchop]

Do you understand how Bitcoin works?  Faster confirm times = different coin.

there will be workarounds...what are you thinking?...

I'm thinking you don't understand why confirm times are what they are.  Please explain and prove me wrong

[razorramon]

Do you understand how Bitcoin works?  Faster confirm times = different coin.

there will be workarounds...what are you thinking?...

I'm thinking you don't understand why confirm times are what they are.  Please explain and prove me wrong

listen...i personally have no idea how it will be possible in the near future to just go into a shop and buy something with bitcoin and leave in the next minute...but there will be a solution to this...in this point cash or credit card is superior to bitcoin....but i say it again...there will be a solution...if i come up with an idea i will make a start up ... raise some vc money and will tell you about it

[NotLambchop]

^Sure, theoretically one could start with a sow's ear and turn it into a silk purse.  One could also make stone soup.

Do I need to explain why couture purse makers aren't driving up the price of sow's ears, and why five-star restaurants don't buy stones by the truckfull?

*If you don't understand how purses are made, it's smarter not to lecture on purses.  Same with soup.  Same with Bitcoin.

[JimboToronto]

more people are selling than buying.

Actually it seems more like people are buying, but in much smaller volumes than the lesser number of people and organizations who are selling large chunks.

The price seems to generally rise when volumes are low and fall with large dumps from whales.

Just an observation.

[razorramon]

^Sure, theoretically one could start with a sow's ear and turn it into a silk purse.  One could also make stone soup.

Do I need to explain why couture purse makers aren't driving up the price of sow's ears, and why five-star restaurants don't buy stones by the truckfull?

*If you don't understand how purses are made, it's smarter not to lecture on purses.  Same with soup.  Same with Bitcoin.

still this has nothing to do with the topic...

anyway...most people don't consider the confirmation time as a problem...maybe it's not for the fast buy yet...but we will get there one way or another...in every other case it's faster than fiat or bank transfer