Bitcoin's bubble bursting and some speculators leaving

[notme]

Nowhere near 20% huh?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M-Pesa#Cost.2C_transaction_charges.2C_statistics

The transaction charges range is from 66% down to 0.16% depending who is involved and the amount of money:

up to 66% for a transfer to an unregistered user
up to 30% for a transfer to a registered user
the lowest transfer rate is 0.16% to a registered user for KSH 70'000 (800 USD, 580 EUR)
the cost for withdrawing money from an M-Pesa agent reach from 20% max to min 0.47%

Look at the lower rates (0.16%) - between registered users. That is what most people pay. Pretty cheap compared to the volatility risk of BTC + exchange commisions.

Right... because the average transaction is $800 .  The lowest rates are only available to those sending large sums.

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[mmitech]

Over the time I saw so many people cash out and move on with their lives or just lose interest, I saw many who lost a good amount of money and I saw few who made huge profits.... this forum is losing its traffic and even existing members are contributing less than before or already quit the forum, everything point to this cycle happening again, which imply to Bitcoin's price last year being a real bubble, at least this is how a bubble exactly looks like.

even the Google trend is bearish, the search for Bitcoin is going down to pre-2013 bubble

Pre-2013 bubble? Which one? The January-April bubble or the October-December bubble?

What about the Great Bubble of 2011?

In my opinion, what is happening now is not all that different from what occurred in late 2011 or June 2013. A few had made a lot, a lot had lost a bunch, and public interest had dropped off. Many pessimists and trolls brayed about the end of Bitcoin.

The protocol is still strong. Venture capital still pours in. The infrastructure continues to grow. Only a minority of the general public even knows that Bitcoin exists, let alone participates.

Bitcoin is still young. We must all be patient.

jmho

I posted the chart for a reason, so you can clearly see the time I was pointing to (October-September), read the whole post, I did point the strong fundamentals and large utility, but all of that still points you to the price of Bitcoin being a bubble.

Maybe too many speculators jumped in and caused that bubble while the infrastructure was not prepared and didn't nearly reflect that value... I think the price will catch to the infrastructure and it will start a healthy and constant growth with less volatility in the short term., this is what mainstream is by the way.

[JimboToronto]

you can clearly see the time I was pointing to (October-September), read the whole post, I did point the strong fundamentals and large utility, but all of that still points you to the price of Bitcoin being a bubble.

Maybe too many speculators jumped in and caused that bubble while the infrastructure was not prepared and didn't nearly reflect that value... I think the price will catch to the infrastructure and it will start a healthy and constant growth with less volatility in the short term., this is what mainstream is by the way.

Yes, we are saying the same thing... the Oct-Sept bubble is bursting just like the Jan-June 2013 bubble burst or the 2011 bubble burst before that, and for largely the same reasons. Too many speculators jumped in, the infrastructure was still far from ready, and the price got ahead of itself.

I personally think we're still a long way from constant growth with less volatility and still have at least another bubble and crash (and possibly several) as the next waves of the general public learn about and come to terms with Bitcoin.

[mmitech]

you can clearly see the time I was pointing to (October-September), read the whole post, I did point the strong fundamentals and large utility, but all of that still points you to the price of Bitcoin being a bubble.

Maybe too many speculators jumped in and caused that bubble while the infrastructure was not prepared and didn't nearly reflect that value... I think the price will catch to the infrastructure and it will start a healthy and constant growth with less volatility in the short term., this is what mainstream is by the way.

Yes, we are saying the same thing... the Oct-Sept bubble is bursting just like the Jan-June 2013 bubble burst or the 2011 bubble burst before that, and for largely the same reasons. Too many speculators jumped in, the infrastructure was still far from ready, and the price got ahead of itself.

I personally think we're still a long way from constant growth with less volatility and still have at least another bubble and crash (and possibly several) as the next waves of the general public learn about and come to terms with Bitcoin.

I think a big percentage of tech savvy people are already on the ride, I am in the IT business and it took me some time to get into Bitcoin, but at this stage so many people know what is Bitcoin, yet they fear trying it or investing in it, simply because of that volatility and all the heist/security breaches they hear about.

The next challenge would be making it so secure, available and simple to use for the average Joe, maybe even provide some kind of insurance in case of heist/theft... only then expect the adoption to massively continue... but I don't think this will make a bubble, because there is 13 million existing coin already and at one point a good percentage of this will be liquid and usable when the market is ready, so in a mainstream market considering the already existing coins and with this kind of inflation (13-15 % a year) there could be a slow and constant growth...but no bubbles.

[JimboToronto]

but the above wont    

Truncated idea or just accidentally hit the post button?

[mmitech]

but the above wont    

Truncated idea or just accidentally hit the post button?

yes I accidetlly did hit that post botton , I didnt read what I wrote.... fixed thanks   

[vanobe]

The next challenge would be making it so secure, available and simple to use for the average Joe
   

Agreed.

Hiding the wallet.dat in the appdata folder will put the average Joe off because it's a hidden folder the average Joe cannot easily find.

[piyany]

Bitcoin is good for buying weed anonymously.

And that's all there is.

Nothing has changed since the start of the bubble, no other killer apps.

why are you even bothering to be here and post this then? 

Just stating the facts.

Did it achieve any success in other fields like remittances people mention? Not even the Chinese use it anymore to evade capital controls, too cumbersome and they got easier ways.

Still so much potential in bitcoin. Maybe next year we gonna see a breakthrough. Not just another merchant adding it to a long list of payment options so early adopters can indirectly dump it.

 

[Hunyadi]

[sgbett]

congratulations sir, you win the internet today.

[Wexlike]

great chart analysis mmitech.

[Capt Drake]

The google trend follow the price and not the opposite, when the price of bitcoin explodes and goes up, many sites post news about bitcoin and new users discover bitcoin because of that.

Then they search for it on google and read more about it.  

[tss]

hey look.  the bounce rate is down 18% and the time spent is up 7%

more new people are staying and for longer... seems like good news to me

[CryptoCarmen]

I don't think Bitcoin is finished but I think we stepped to the mainstream that everyone was asking for, and a 100x a year wont really happen again, so assuming that Bitcoin will not be taken by something better or by a technical issue and assuming that using it will become easier and more secure, there will be a healthy and constant growth in the future (once we reach the bottom which is still far).

You can be 100% about this. Did not happen for years anyway.

[blade87]

Not exactly sure how this predicts anything. People start searching after price has moved a significant amount. I even I, as a LTC miner, wasn't paying attention at all until I saw "Bitcoin surges past $600" somewhere in the 2013 bubble.

[mmitech]

Good morning, I wont remind you about what I said a couple of days ago but I will leave this here...

less than 13KBTC to under $40 and more than 15KBTC to $600... how much scary is that ?

[Hunyadi]