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Author Topic: [GLBSE] (discontinued) Anti-Pirate: Bonds for negative BTCST investments  (Read 8439 times)
Meni Rosenfeld
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April 20, 2012, 02:14:00 PM
 #41

Quote
Ok, now I know you're just trolling.
Let me point out to you, Meni Rosenfeld, that throughout this thread I have been speaking as to facts. You have been speaking as to persons.
I think you'll find that most of your posts in this thread contain personal attacks, including the first and the latest.

A number of people have suggested that your behavior is unacceptable. There are two possibilities, either we're all wrong and you should stop wasting your time on us, or you're wrong and you should stop wasting our time.

You are no longer welcome in this thread.

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April 20, 2012, 03:02:38 PM
 #42

Meni, instead of responding to trolls on this thread, why don't you just create your offering on GLBSE, announce it here and start selling shares?
Creating assets on GLBSE requires planning. I wrote the OP when I was ready to write the OP, not when I was ready to create the asset. If all goes well it should be a matter of days.

Rest assured that MPOE-PR's objections are not holding me back.

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April 20, 2012, 03:05:57 PM
 #43

This is another very interesting offer! But one thing doesn't seem quite right...
The issuer has the right to buy back the bonds at 160% of their face value. This cannot be exercised if there is substantiated suspicion that a default has already taken place.
If you make the buy-back price 200% of face value, there will be no need for people to trust that you will not buy back the bonds just in advance of a default.

Your provision regarding "substantiated suspicion" sounds reasonable, but it won't feel very satisfactory to the few outliers who are convinced the default is about to happen then lose their bonds for 160%. At 200%, no-one can complain.
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April 20, 2012, 03:11:48 PM
 #44

This is another very interesting offer! But one thing doesn't seem quite right...
The issuer has the right to buy back the bonds at 160% of their face value. This cannot be exercised if there is substantiated suspicion that a default has already taken place.
If you make the buy-back price 200% of face value, there will be no need for people to trust that you will not buy back the bonds just in advance of a default.

Your provision regarding "substantiated suspicion" sounds reasonable, but it won't feel very satisfactory to the few outliers who are convinced the default is about to happen then lose their bonds for 160%. At 200%, no-one can complain.
This makes sense, I'll think about this.

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April 22, 2012, 05:02:25 AM
 #45


But that's not even the main point, there's something much more basic that you're missing. Suppose I want to take a long position of X BTC on Pirate. I can do this by either depositing in his program or by offering X BTC worth of bonds. Assume the worst case that Pirate buys them all. Then this increases his incentive to default by X BTC, and if I deposited in his program I would also have increased his incentive by X BTC. So choosing to offer these bonds has no effect on the incentive to default, and that's assuming the worst case - if people other than Pirate buy bonds, his incentive to default decreases (when compared to the case that I obtained my position by depositing).

What you're really saying is that depositing in Pirate's program is a very bad idea as it encourages default. Which may be true, but has nothing to do with this. This bond allows people to deposit negative amounts which discourages default, unless pirate deposits a negative amount in his own program which makes this neutral.

I don't understand your reasoning and would appreciate a better explanation  (I'm not saying you are wrong, just that I'd like to understand your arguments better). 

In my mind, what you are doing is creating a new market for Pirate. Previously he had to rely upon people investing (a decision that he doesn't control), but now he can take action himself (either by an internet proxy/fake identity or an accomplice) and make money off of you.  I guess so long as this is a small amount of money it won't exercise a big influence on his decisions, but I also really don't know what kind of sums either party is dealing with.

Now when you and other people (the pass-through bond for instance) create new markets for Pirate you are creating new inflows that allow the Ponzi scheme to grow larger - this will probably allow it to last longer, get larger, and hurt more people when it collapses.


Don't day trade.
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April 22, 2012, 05:22:30 AM
 #46


But that's not even the main point, there's something much more basic that you're missing. Suppose I want to take a long position of X BTC on Pirate. I can do this by either depositing in his program or by offering X BTC worth of bonds. Assume the worst case that Pirate buys them all. Then this increases his incentive to default by X BTC, and if I deposited in his program I would also have increased his incentive by X BTC. So choosing to offer these bonds has no effect on the incentive to default, and that's assuming the worst case - if people other than Pirate buy bonds, his incentive to default decreases (when compared to the case that I obtained my position by depositing).

What you're really saying is that depositing in Pirate's program is a very bad idea as it encourages default. Which may be true, but has nothing to do with this. This bond allows people to deposit negative amounts which discourages default, unless pirate deposits a negative amount in his own program which makes this neutral.

I don't understand your reasoning and would appreciate a better explanation  (I'm not saying you are wrong, just that I'd like to understand your arguments better).  

In my mind, what you are doing is creating a new market for Pirate. Previously he had to rely upon people investing (a decision that he doesn't control), but now he can take action himself (either by an internet proxy/fake identity or an accomplice) and make money off of you.  I guess so long as this is a small amount of money it won't exercise a big influence on his decisions, but I also really don't know what kind of sums either party is dealing with.

Now when you and other people (the pass-through bond for instance) create new markets for Pirate you are creating new inflows that allow the Ponzi scheme to grow larger - this will probably allow it to last longer, get larger, and hurt more people when it collapses.
If I didn't offer the bonds, it is likely that I would have instead invested funds in BTCST. He is "making money off me" due to the fact that I chose to take a long position, but he is not making any more money due to the fact that I obtain this position by offering bonds rather than investing. In fact he will be making less money because he has to pay a fee on top of the face value. All of this is of course under the assumption that he does in fact have malicious intents.

Positive bonds such as PPT.X, on the other hand, do allow more cash to flow into Pirate, but I still believe the effect is small.

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April 22, 2012, 05:35:45 PM
 #47

Ask anyone who has met me in NYC or Prague (or in Israel for that matter) if I look anything like a pirate. Smiley

Even Pirate doesn't look like a Pirate (he has both eyes and no facial scars):

http://photobook.bitvps.com/index.php/pirateat40

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April 22, 2012, 05:54:12 PM
 #48

This is happening. Get your Anti-Pirate bonds (initially 500 at 1.1 BTC) on Tuesday, 24 April 2012 at 03:45 UTC.

IPO page: https://glbse.com/ipo/26

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April 22, 2012, 07:12:30 PM
 #49

So the million dollar question seems to be...

Will Bitcoin Savings & Trust default?

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Meni Rosenfeld
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April 22, 2012, 07:20:32 PM
 #50

So the million dollar question seems to be...
Does Pirate really have that much in deposits? Wink

I had a thought about doing this asset in the form of a prediction market (note: betsofbitco.in is not a prediction market), but what I have here is much more inline with the underlying.

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April 22, 2012, 07:51:36 PM
 #51

(note: betsofbitco.in is not a prediction market)

I wish it were Sad please make us a prediction market!
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April 22, 2012, 08:40:36 PM
 #52

(note: betsofbitco.in is not a prediction market)
I wish it were Sad please make us a prediction market!
Nefario said he would add prediction market functionality to GLBSE, and advised against using the current functionality for this (though I have had quite a few ideas how to do the latter). If neither Nefario nor anyone else do this in a timely manner, I will seriously consider becoming involved in a project to create a Bitcoin prediction market platform (both using Bitcoin for payments and being rich in Bitcoin-related predictions).

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April 22, 2012, 09:44:55 PM
 #53

So the million dollar question seems to be...

Will Bitcoin Savings & Trust default?

Looks like 10 bitcoins say no Smiley Who wants yes?
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April 22, 2012, 11:11:55 PM
 #54

Nefario said he would add prediction market functionality to GLBSE, and advised against using the current functionality for this (though I have had quite a few ideas how to do the latter). If neither Nefario nor anyone else do this in a timely manner, I will seriously consider becoming involved in a project to create a Bitcoin prediction market platform (both using Bitcoin for payments and being rich in Bitcoin-related predictions).
Maybe you can collaborate with him on that even, I'm not sure if a prediction market is the real main issue on GLBSE right now - if they do some serious work with some HCI people on the interface, they might get more money flowing than adding another complexity to the mix atm. If they release an extensive API soon or allow you to work with them somehow maybe, it could work side by side though. Smiley

About the bet:
It's not defined how a "default" looks like - even MPOE shares are worded more strictly! Undecided

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April 22, 2012, 11:57:19 PM
 #55

Nefario said he would add prediction market functionality to GLBSE, and advised against using the current functionality for this (though I have had quite a few ideas how to do the latter). If neither Nefario nor anyone else do this in a timely manner, I will seriously consider becoming involved in a project to create a Bitcoin prediction market platform (both using Bitcoin for payments and being rich in Bitcoin-related predictions).
Maybe you can collaborate with him on that even, I'm not sure if a prediction market is the real main issue on GLBSE right now - if they do some serious work with some HCI people on the interface, they might get more money flowing than adding another complexity to the mix atm. If they release an extensive API soon or allow you to work with them somehow maybe, it could work side by side though. Smiley

About the bet:
It's not defined how a "default" looks like - even MPOE shares are worded more strictly! Undecided

I think there will be plenty of noise if anything remotely close to a default happens, so I doubt we'll have to resort to technicalities in describing it. betsofbitco.in clearly seems to think they have enough information to go on in judging. I wonder if whoever submitted the original statement (OgNasty?) can amend it, though.
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April 23, 2012, 12:19:13 AM
 #56

So the million dollar question seems to be...

Will Bitcoin Savings & Trust default?

About the bet:
It's not defined how a "default" looks like - even MPOE shares are worded more strictly! Undecided

I think there will be plenty of noise if anything remotely close to a default happens, so I doubt we'll have to resort to technicalities in describing it.

+1

EDIT:  It is literally the textbook definition of what a "default" looks like...

[1] Default may occur if the debtor is either unwilling or unable to pay their debt.

Quote from: betsofbitco.in - http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=349
This statement is true if Bitcoin Savings and Trust is unwilling or unable to pay out requested deposits on or before July 4th, 2012

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stochastic
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April 23, 2012, 07:07:50 AM
 #57

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I don't know what kind of bubble you live in

If your defense is "oh but I didn't know cause I don't read the forums or mpex or go on IRC or anything else" that means YOU are the one in the bubble. Good luck with that.
I read the forum plenty, please direct me to a place where you announced your offering prior to my own proposal, preferably in a relevant section.

You may be right that I am missing out on IRC, but it doesn't seem like a very productive medium to me. I can usually be found in #bitcoin-il though.

I don't follow mpex closely, nor do I see a reason why I should.

Meni can you create a negative MPEx bond instead? That is, a bond allowing us to short the continued existence of MPEx. I would invest heavily in such a bond
That's... Interesting, I guess.

Meni, you need to cite your sources.  Who invented shorting?

Joking aside, I was thinking of offering an asset like this.  I even emailed nefario asking if it was OK to offer this kind of asset but he never contacted me back.  I figured since he was going to install some kind of prediction market on GLBSE that my offering would be voided after that, which was my reason for contacting him.  I see a slight problem with your asset but you can find out when I create my own  Tongue

Introducing constraints to the economy only serves to limit what can be economical.
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April 23, 2012, 08:06:35 AM
 #58

Joking aside, I was thinking of offering an asset like this.  I even emailed nefario asking if it was OK to offer this kind of asset but he never contacted me back.  I figured since he was going to install some kind of prediction market on GLBSE that my offering would be voided after that, which was my reason for contacting him.  I see a slight problem with your asset but you can find out when I create my own  Tongue
Clearly there are various ways to bet on or against Pirate. Predictions on the probability of a default in a given timeframe (which sounds like what you were trying to do) are certainly a possibility, but are too artificial. The currently offered Anti-Pirate bond, and the yet-to-exist publicly traded perpetual pass-through bond which pays weekly dividends, are commensurable with the underlying instrument of investing in BTCST.

But if you think there is something wrong with my offering, please do share.

1EofoZNBhWQ3kxfKnvWkhtMns4AivZArhr   |   Who am I?   |   bitcoin-otc WoT
Bitcoil - Exchange bitcoins for ILS (thread)   |   Israel Bitcoin community homepage (thread)
Analysis of Bitcoin Pooled Mining Reward Systems (thread, summary)  |   PureMining - Infinite-term, deterministic mining bond
Nefario
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April 24, 2012, 01:31:41 AM
 #59

GLBSE prediction market launched

PGP key id at pgp.mit.edu 0xA68F4B7C

To get help and support for GLBSE please email support@glbse.com
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April 24, 2012, 04:14:55 AM
 #60

500 bonds are now being offered for 1.1 BTC each.

Asset page: https://glbse.com/asset/view/ANTI-PIRATE

That was fast. But two major problems:

1. "a prediction market for GLBSE events." What's that about? It should be a prediction market for any event, or perhaps any Bitcoin-related event.
2. Apparently this uses Inkling which 'uses an "automated market maker" to control trading.' I don't know if I like this, we should have the possibility to place bids and asks. (Well, at least the algorithms were inspired by Robin Hanson who is pretty cool.)
3. Why is the currency $?

Looks like Nefario's goals with this are completely different from what I had in mind.

1EofoZNBhWQ3kxfKnvWkhtMns4AivZArhr   |   Who am I?   |   bitcoin-otc WoT
Bitcoil - Exchange bitcoins for ILS (thread)   |   Israel Bitcoin community homepage (thread)
Analysis of Bitcoin Pooled Mining Reward Systems (thread, summary)  |   PureMining - Infinite-term, deterministic mining bond
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