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Author Topic: GLBSE prediction market launched  (Read 4316 times)
Nefario
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April 24, 2012, 01:15:33 AM
 #1

predict.glbse.com is a prediction market for GLBSE events.
It's open for everyone, there is currently a limit of 100 accounts, each account starts off with $5000 to play with, prediction questions can be submitted by anyone, I will however remove any crap that pops up.

What can this be used to predict?

I don't think this will be terribly useful for things such as share prices, as we already have a real market for that.

For things such as whether you believe a bond issuer will default on their debt, whether dividend payments will be late, or whether you think an issuer is a scammer are all valid uses.

We don't have ratings agencies for GLBSE listed securities, so we will have to rely on the wisdom of the market.

I will over time be integrating this into GLBSE proper to show an assets prediction ratings beside the listing.

Go on, sign up, it's free.


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Sukrim
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April 24, 2012, 01:27:03 AM
 #2

Awesome, managed to get in! Cheesy

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April 24, 2012, 01:34:59 AM
 #3

or whether you think an issuer is a scammer are all valid uses.

And you do that by waiting till the end of time I guess?


Also, we need to you to work on GLBSE plox. Focus girls!

Nefario
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April 24, 2012, 01:38:26 AM
 #4

or whether you think an issuer is a scammer are all valid uses.

And you do that by waiting till the end of time I guess?


Also, we need to you to work on GLBSE plox. Focus girls!


This is a complimentary service for GLBSE users that we've bought, and has taken very little time to get going.
Go on and get some good questions up there.

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bitfoo
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April 24, 2012, 01:41:41 AM
 #5

So wait, this is just play money right now? It's not really useful unless we do this for real money right? Smiley

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April 24, 2012, 01:44:33 AM
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Awesome I definitely will be creating an account asap to work out an kinks for my organization.

Another great addition to the bitcoin open trading system.

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Sukrim
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April 24, 2012, 01:44:56 AM
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I guess once it turns out to be working well and being in demand, there might be a "premium" version for the big boys where we can bid our "real" satoshis! Cool

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Nefario
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April 24, 2012, 01:49:05 AM
 #8

So wait, this is just play money right now? It's not really useful unless we do this for real money right? Smiley

It is play money for the moment, and it's very useful in predicting accurately the outcome of future GLBSE events, this is the closest thing we will get to a rating agency and is more likely to be correct than any actual rating agency, it's also about as neutral as you can get(it's a market, all it cares about is being right).

After I get the next series of updates to GLBSE pushed out I will add the ability to put bitcoins on the outcome of these events on the prediction market.

It also allows a few people who are clever but lack bitcoins to get some cred for themselves.

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Glasswalker
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April 24, 2012, 01:57:05 AM
 #9

Snagged myself an account, I'm intrigued by this Wink

Already posted my first question.

I'm interested to see how this pans out.

Just trying to make Bitcoin a Success... One crazy project at a time. (13rwPKskyATcAq3PpnCikfFG8989DQ8M3c)
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stochastic
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April 24, 2012, 02:15:37 AM
 #10

You should put all times listed in the prediction market as UTC.

Who determines if the correct answer to the question?

Introducing constraints to the economy only serves to limit what can be economical.
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April 24, 2012, 02:21:21 AM
 #11

This could be a great way to determine asset ratings.  Lots of possibilities for implementing betting and insurance into the GLBSE with this also.  I'm interested to see how it plays out.

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Nefario
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April 24, 2012, 02:26:56 AM
 #12

You should put all times listed in the prediction market as UTC.

Who determines if the correct answer to the question?

I think it's the question creator, but when they ask the question they need to state where the information comes from, i.e. in the Bitcoin price question the answer is determined by the average price on MtGox at a specific date...or something like that.

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stochastic
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April 24, 2012, 02:29:24 AM
 #13

You should put all times listed in the prediction market as UTC.

Who determines if the correct answer to the question?

I think it's the question creator, but when they ask the question they need to state where the information comes from, i.e. in the Bitcoin price question the answer is determined by the average price on MtGox at a specific date...or something like that.

What is the incentive the question creator has in maintaining the question?  Does the question creator get some kind of percentage of the revenue generated?

Introducing constraints to the economy only serves to limit what can be economical.
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April 24, 2012, 02:48:14 AM
 #14

Well, got myself an account and asked two questions about the mining operation we manage (price and hashing power change). We'll see what people think.

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Nefario
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April 24, 2012, 02:51:42 AM
 #15

Several questions have been approved and are active.

I believe that I also hold the power of deciding the answer of the question (as the admin). I'll be happy to hand this off to someone else who is trustworthy if this takes off (if not then I won't have to).

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stochastic
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April 24, 2012, 02:55:55 AM
 #16

Several questions have been approved and are active.

I believe that I also hold the power of deciding the answer of the question (as the admin). I'll be happy to hand this off to someone else who is trustworthy if this takes off (if not then I won't have to).

To give incentive to people to make questions the question maker should get a portion of any fees gained from the prediction market question they made.  It could be some kind of management fee to them.  If there is some kind of argument that needs a  higher moderator to settle the dispute, and the moderator has a decision opposite of what the question maker has, then the question maker could lose their management fee.  Also, market makers should be given some kind of incentive too.

Introducing constraints to the economy only serves to limit what can be economical.
Nefario
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April 24, 2012, 02:58:41 AM
 #17

Several questions have been approved and are active.

I believe that I also hold the power of deciding the answer of the question (as the admin). I'll be happy to hand this off to someone else who is trustworthy if this takes off (if not then I won't have to).

To give incentive to people to make questions the question maker should get a portion of any fees gained from the prediction market question they made.  It could be some kind of management fee to them.  If there is some kind of argument that needs a  higher moderator to settle the dispute, and the moderator has a decision opposite of what the question maker has, then the question maker could lose their management fee.  Also, market makers should be given some kind of incentive too.

I'll see if this sort of thing is supported.

In the meantime, enjoy trading and goodnight.

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tgmarks
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April 24, 2012, 05:24:26 AM
 #18

This is sweet.  Not what I expected.  For some reason I thought this was going to be more like a fake account on the glbse to play with fake shares of the actual entities, but it's actually more like crowd sourced answers to questions based on peoples thoughts, predictions, and intentions.  I like it.

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April 24, 2012, 05:25:40 AM
 #19

Subbed, this looks like an excellent development.

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stochastic
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April 24, 2012, 05:27:41 AM
 #20

Subbed, this looks like an excellent development.

I think GLBSE should build its own and not rely on Inkling

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=77265.msg866035#msg866035

Introducing constraints to the economy only serves to limit what can be economical.
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