Worst case (plausible) scenario thread

[DieJohnny]

Please post your worst case plausible scenario for Bitcoin price and why. No alien invasions please.

My worst case scenario:

12 months to next bubble.

Last two bubbles pushed bitcoin so far above the real world transaction volume that we are in a downward trend for another year until txns catch up and force bitcoin higher.

Here is the #1 reason we are stuck:

https://blockchain.info/charts/estimated-transaction-volume-usd?timespan=all&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=0&address=

It is pretty simple really, when enough people are buying bitcoin for their own purposes to offset the people selling them, then we go up. If it is the other way then we go down. Investments can never grow forever on speculation alone.

[Chuckee]

Drop your false hope! The bitcoin bubble is over and there is no mainstream interest in bitcoin because of MtGox, many scam IPO, high profile hack and value drop 60% since start of 2014. Bitcoin will go nowhere but down from here. You have been warned!

Best case scenario, bulls here fool too many newcomers and price holds at $450 for a few more weeks before final capitulation!

[blatchcorn]

Drop your false hope! The bitcoin bubble is over and there is no mainstream interest in bitcoin because of MtGox, many scam IPO, high profile hack and value drop 60% since start of 2014. Bitcoin will go nowhere but down from here. You have been warned!

Best case scenario, bulls here fool too many newcomers and price holds at $450 for a few more weeks before final capitulation!

You remind me of someone...

[g29wheel]

If 12 months is the worst realistic case I would be very happy to wait for it and double my holdings

[Wilhelm]

Drop your false hope! The bitcoin bubble is over and there is no mainstream interest in bitcoin because of MtGox, many scam IPO, high profile hack and value drop 60% since start of 2014. Bitcoin will go nowhere but down from here. You have been warned!

Best case scenario, bulls here fool too many newcomers and price holds at $450 for a few more weeks before final capitulation!

It's not even been $450 for the last few days and the price is climbing .... stop yapping your FALSE doomsday scenario....

[alexeft]

Ignored!!!

[hayabusa911]

I'm glad I read this thread I'm off to sell all of my bitcoins now. I guess this is goodbye.

[Chuckee]

Drop your false hope! The bitcoin bubble is over and there is no mainstream interest in bitcoin because of MtGox, many scam IPO, high profile hack and value drop 60% since start of 2014. Bitcoin will go nowhere but down from here. You have been warned!

Best case scenario, bulls here fool too many newcomers and price holds at $450 for a few more weeks before final capitulation!

It's not even been $450 for the last few days and the price is climbing .... stop yapping your FALSE doomsday scenario....

Do not buy into dead cat bounces! Drop your false hope before it's too late!

[andy35]

A scenario is just a possibility of what someone imagines may happen. There are worst cases, best cases and plenty of other cases in between. I don't think any scenarios can either be false or true, they are just guesses of what might happen.

[uhoh]

Drop your false hope! The bitcoin bubble is over and there is no mainstream interest in bitcoin because of MtGox, many scam IPO, high profile hack and value drop 60% since start of 2014. Bitcoin will go nowhere but down from here. You have been warned!

Best case scenario, bulls here fool too many newcomers and price holds at $450 for a few more weeks before final capitulation!

It's not even been $450 for the last few days and the price is climbing .... stop yapping your FALSE doomsday scenario....

Do not buy into dead cat bounces! Drop your false hope before it's too late!

Igorr is back.

[Habeler876]

Worst case scenario: No new ATH, or eventual slightly higher ATH with a prolonged bear market that never recovers. In this scenario, I think there is a good chance we would reach $100s and possibly double digits for some time before the return of the bull market. I am not betting on this YET -- I prefer to follow the mid term trend in between -- BUT this scenario has a decent probability in my opinion.

[Elwar]

Worst case scenario...Keynes was right! War and oppression is the best economic solution.

[Ultros]

We missed you.

[d5000]

Worst case: PoS and PoB coins make Bitcoin obsolete, Bitcoin can't change to PoS/PoB because of miners, mining industry collapses, Bitcoin continues as a hobbyist's / nostalgic's project on 0,01-0,10$ levels.

[guidexy]

I like more the OP worst case scenario, the others are too bearish in my opinion.

[DieJohnny]

Worst case: PoS and PoB coins make Bitcoin obsolete, Bitcoin can't change to PoS/PoB because of miners, mining industry collapses, Bitcoin continues as a hobbyist's / nostalgic's project on 0,01-0,10$ levels.

Even if other coins step up and actually compete, Bitcoin is not going to go away or go down to $10 million market cap strictly to technology features.

You far over estimate the importance of wiz bang coin features, Bitcoin is complex enough with technology for people to grasp, more complexity is a losing position for mainstream consumers.

eBay did zero innovation for a decade and easily maintained its place in online auctions simply for being first. Bitcoin would have to majorly stumble to become the MySpace of crypto. I see no plausible major stumbling issue for Bitcoin.

[d5000]

Even if other coins step up and actually compete, Bitcoin is not going to go away or go down to $10 million market cap strictly to technology features.

You far over estimate the importance of wiz bang coin features, Bitcoin is complex enough with technology for people to grasp, more complexity is a losing position for mainstream consumers.

eBay did zero innovation for a decade and easily maintained its place in online auctions simply for being first. Bitcoin would have to majorly stumble to become the MySpace of crypto. I see no plausible major stumbling issue for Bitcoin.

I gave you a worst case scenario, not the scenario that I think is most probable

The scenario of a "obsolete bitcoin" is based on the potentially far lesser transaction costs of PoS and PoB-based solutions because of the lesser energy consumption. It may or may not be decisive. I don't think its a realistic short-term scenario, but it can happen in a couple of years (maybe 2, maybe 5, maybe 20 ...).

[Chuckee]

bitcoin has falling 60% since start of 2014. this already is worst case scenario!

WE ARE ALREADY LIVING IT.

Now it only gets worst and worst. Drop your false hope!

[dyland]

bitcoin has falling 60% since start of 2014. this already is worst case scenario!

WE ARE ALREADY LIVING IT.

Now it only gets worst and worst. Drop your false hope!

Haha, I love this guy...

[yokosan]

My absolute worst case scenario is a 50% drop next year...  

















































From $5,000 to $2,500