Best way to understand Bitcoin price fluctation? Experts? Soothsayers? Anyone?

[doomwhistle]

Hello everyone,

Let me start off by saying I am a longtime Bitcoin enthusiast and really love the possibilities it garners. I started  in BC because of my friend ( a coder) and I got really involved with buying as many a I could. It really is an exciting time to be pioneers in this new world money. I remember when coins were about 30 bucks and was elated to see it catapult to 1200 a pop! Amazing! I even gave coins to my friends to get them started!

However, there is something I have never been able to understand...price fluctuation. I read excessively, check blogs and forums, yadda yadda yadda. For the life of me, I can never quite understand what moves the needle so to speak. It would appear that great press would move numbers...but that theory never holds true.

Would anyone like to share any discoveries of their own on what dictates price? Apologies if this has already been discussed but my site excavation has proven daunting at best to find clear ideas.

Cheers and thanks in advance.

[harposox]

One word: manipulation.

[adamstgBit]

greed / fear

[counter]

Speculation and manipulation plus greed and fear are the main culprits for the price fluctuations.  Weak hands are often mislead by strong hands and unpredictable markets.  Then you could consider a Whale coming on the scene and buying up all the coins available in and instant.  It's a complex issue and not an easy answer by any means.

So what other tips did your coder friend give you, may I ask? 

[PrestonTrader]

You need see 3 trends.

Long / Medium and Short Term.

Long = 6 months

Medium = 1 month

Short = 1 week


Study charts like this....

Market: BTC USD
 
Time Frame: H4
 
Major Trend = DOWN
 
Resistence =  512.26




After you see convergence or divergene you will be able to make work plan.

[Wilhelm]

greed and fear are good motivators for volatility.

Other than that it's
 - traders looking at technical indicators and trading accordingly.
 - services converting to and from bitcoin using market orders.
 - miners creating supply and converting coins.
etc.

[jaberwock]

Few money(just a few billions), and too much free bitcoin from early days.

That way it is easy make the price swing with small moves