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Author Topic: GLBSE prediction market launched  (Read 4314 times)
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April 24, 2012, 08:52:22 AM
 #21

Subbed, this looks like an excellent development.

I think GLBSE should build its own and not rely on Inkling

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=77265.msg866035#msg866035
From what I have read in your posts, I agree. It wouldn’t even be difficult to implement on GLBSE directly, as it could just be made another type of asset.

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April 24, 2012, 12:50:54 PM
 #22

Very interesting!

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April 24, 2012, 03:05:27 PM
 #23

Subbed, this looks like an excellent development.

I think GLBSE should build its own and not rely on Inkling

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=77265.msg866035#msg866035
From what I have read in your posts, I agree. It wouldn’t even be difficult to implement on GLBSE directly, as it could just be made another type of asset.

I just looked at the prediction market for 5 minutes last night, no deep analysis by any means. Upon reading your posts, I concur. Lacking the ability to adapt to liquidity is a major weakness. On the other hand, I understand that Nefario has limited time and resources. Do any programs exist that do implement such features?

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April 24, 2012, 05:07:10 PM
 #24

Will people be able to predict the death of others?

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April 24, 2012, 05:10:15 PM
 #25

Will people be able to predict the death of others?

You can if you like but since it's currently only play money it's not going to be much of an assassination market I'm afraid.

Who did you have in mind :p

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April 24, 2012, 05:12:00 PM
 #26

Will people be able to predict the death of others?

You can if you like but since it's currently only play money it's not going to be much of an assassination market I'm afraid.

Who did you have in mind :p

I meant once it goes for Satoshi's.  Wink

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April 25, 2012, 11:55:15 AM
 #27

how do you handle questions that depend on a result that is different from the time of the end-date of the question?

lemme rephrase that.

i submitted

Quote
Will any one country currently within the EURO monetary union revert to or adopt another primary or secondary currency besides or instead of the EURO before 1/1/2013?

End-Date is 6/30/2012.
The *event* however is on 1/1/13.

imho there should be an option to define the date of decision, so that you (or anyone else but the submitter and the bettors) can make a decision on that date.

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April 25, 2012, 05:02:53 PM
 #28

There are limits to what you can do with a prediction market, you kind of have to be specific with the question you ask.

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May 02, 2012, 06:48:11 AM
 #29

I did drop you an email on account of being reminded to keep questions "bitcoin related".

I disagree with that sentiment.

This could become Bictoins betfair, what with shorting outcomes etc etc.
Keep 2% vigorish, and you're all set.

I would do it if I could, but I can't.
Would be a shame to see such an awesome system go to waste.
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May 03, 2012, 08:28:15 PM
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Have two questions pending in regards to DBL and the future of bitcoin advertisements.

I look forward to reading the results and seeing what users have to say.

Great interface btw.

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May 04, 2012, 07:57:34 PM
 #31

I have two question currently pending in regards to the future of DBL and advertisement sector of the bitcoin economy.

Just curious as to how long before they can be released for response.

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May 17, 2012, 06:17:47 AM
 #32

Is this thing dead now? It hasn't been resolving for me since GLBSE shifted DNS servers.

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May 17, 2012, 03:03:31 PM
 #33

Is this thing dead now? It hasn't been resolving for me since GLBSE shifted DNS servers.

I can't access it either, though I must admit I didn't even try until I saw your post.

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May 17, 2012, 05:12:13 PM
 #34

Hmmm, I actually didn't notice that it didn't carry over to the new DNS service. And the fact that besides yourself brendio no one else did shows that it's pretty much dead/failed as a service, concept.

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May 17, 2012, 05:44:13 PM
 #35

Well, it's not linked anywhere from glbse.com - onlx people following numerous threads here on the forums even have a chance of knowing it exists!

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May 17, 2012, 11:49:45 PM
 #36

maybe remove the GLBSE branding from the forums. People who dont use GLBSE ignore anything with it in the title.
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May 18, 2012, 05:27:33 AM
 #37

Also, if you could use bitcoin on it, rather than just play money, it would have more utility.

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May 22, 2012, 02:47:03 PM
 #38

I'm very interested in this concept,  but like anything,  it needs to be developed before people will come to use it.
I suspect there IS a demand for this.

If you build it,  we will come!

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May 22, 2012, 02:51:29 PM
 #39

I'm very interested in this concept,  but like anything,  it needs to be developed before people will come to use it.
I suspect there IS a demand for this.

If you build it,  we will come!


The problem with prediction markets is the market maker.  If it is automated like the one that is on the GLBSE prediction market now then it will eventually lose money.  That model is only used by places that don't use real money.

Introducing constraints to the economy only serves to limit what can be economical.
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