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Author Topic: In 10 years, when BTC is mainstream what % of people will own 1 BTC  (Read 5433 times)
zimmah
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September 21, 2014, 05:24:28 PM
 #41

1% of world population = 70 millions of people.

There will be 21 millions bitcoin , so more than 1 btc per person for 1% of population is not possible due to something called maths Wink


So people going to have only few sats instead of bitcoin.
It is good to us Wink

yes, once more people realize this, they will also realize that $500 is a real bargain.

It's basically investing a minor part of your income now (for many, it's not even a monthly wage) for a chance of having an extremely large share in the future of money.

If you lose, well, big deal, it's just some pocket money you lost.

If you win, you'll be richer than today's millionaires.
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September 21, 2014, 07:13:40 PM
 #42

1% of world population = 70 millions of people.

There will be 21 millions bitcoin , so more than 1 btc per person for 1% of population is not possible due to something called maths Wink


So people going to have only few sats instead of bitcoin.
It is good to us Wink

yes, once more people realize this, they will also realize that $500 is a real bargain.

It's basically investing a minor part of your income now (for many, it's not even a monthly wage) for a chance of having an extremely large share in the future of money.

If you lose, well, big deal, it's just some pocket money you lost.

If you win, you'll be richer than today's millionaires.

You´re being too optimistic....I hope the future be something like this....I can only hope right now.

I just bought some xxxBTCs and will forget them in my wallet for a long time....no ansiety, no pretentions, anything....if it drop so be it...

The actual price flutuation instability is really annoying.

Cheers
zimmah
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September 21, 2014, 07:58:35 PM
 #43

1% of world population = 70 millions of people.

There will be 21 millions bitcoin , so more than 1 btc per person for 1% of population is not possible due to something called maths Wink


So people going to have only few sats instead of bitcoin.
It is good to us Wink

yes, once more people realize this, they will also realize that $500 is a real bargain.

It's basically investing a minor part of your income now (for many, it's not even a monthly wage) for a chance of having an extremely large share in the future of money.

If you lose, well, big deal, it's just some pocket money you lost.

If you win, you'll be richer than today's millionaires.

You´re being too optimistic....I hope the future be something like this....I can only hope right now.

I just bought some xxxBTCs and will forget them in my wallet for a long time....no ansiety, no pretentions, anything....if it drop so be it...

The actual price flutuation instability is really annoying.

Cheers

where am i being too optimistic?

It's true that you can buy 1 bitcoin for $400ish right now, which, to most people is not a big deal.

It's also true that very few persons can have 1 bitcoin or more, because there will only ever be 21 million bitcoin, and 21 million divided by 7 billion people, is not a lot.

So if bitcoin catches on (and why shouldn't it?) you will be very rich. There are about 12 million people who own a million dollars in the world, there will likely not be 12 million people who own a bitcoin, ever.

So therefore, it's pretty likely that once bitcoin becomes mainstream, the $400 you invest now, might be worth more than a million dollars. (and i don't mean inflated dollars, i mean like today's dollars).

The only thing that can prevent this all from happening, is if bitcoin becomes a failure. But there's no reason to assume that.

And even if bitcoin fails, who really cares about $400? You won't die from wasting $400 once in your life.
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September 21, 2014, 08:20:21 PM
 #44

1% of world population = 70 millions of people.

There will be 21 millions bitcoin , so more than 1 btc per person for 1% of population is not possible due to something called maths Wink


So people going to have only few sats instead of bitcoin.
It is good to us Wink

yes, once more people realize this, they will also realize that $500 is a real bargain.

It's basically investing a minor part of your income now (for many, it's not even a monthly wage) for a chance of having an extremely large share in the future of money.

If you lose, well, big deal, it's just some pocket money you lost.

If you win, you'll be richer than today's millionaires.

You´re being too optimistic....I hope the future be something like this....I can only hope right now.

I just bought some xxxBTCs and will forget them in my wallet for a long time....no ansiety, no pretentions, anything....if it drop so be it...

The actual price flutuation instability is really annoying.

Cheers

where am i being too optimistic?

It's true that you can buy 1 bitcoin for $400ish right now, which, to most people is not a big deal.

It's also true that very few persons can have 1 bitcoin or more, because there will only ever be 21 million bitcoin, and 21 million divided by 7 billion people, is not a lot.

So if bitcoin catches on (and why shouldn't it?) you will be very rich. There are about 12 million people who own a million dollars in the world, there will likely not be 12 million people who own a bitcoin, ever.

So therefore, it's pretty likely that once bitcoin becomes mainstream, the $400 you invest now, might be worth more than a million dollars. (and i don't mean inflated dollars, i mean like today's dollars).

The only thing that can prevent this all from happening, is if bitcoin becomes a failure. But there's no reason to assume that.

And even if bitcoin fails, who really cares about $400? You won't die from wasting $400 once in your life.

I do agree with you and hope Bitcoin become popular and 1,0 BTC will be very valuable.

My fear relies in governments, and, my friend, they have power to block everything by law and fear....BTC must become a lot $$$$ interesting for their adoption, let´s see how the regulation will be, because now we´re in the kindergarden phase, just after the born of the coin (2009).

Just note that some countries already reacted against BTC (Russia, Bangladesh, Equador), others are seeing BTC as a threat (i.e. UK), one thing is certain: They must control the coin somehow or they will react against it.

Cheers
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September 21, 2014, 09:20:42 PM
 #45

do you mean the % of humans on the planet, or the % of bitcoin users?

it's impossible for more than 0.295% of the world population to ever have 1 bitcoin, so if bitcoin becomes mainstream, everyone with 1 bitcoin will be the top 0.295% at the least.

but this is assuming 21 million people all have 1 bitcoin, but of course some people have more than 1 bitcon, and many people have less.

so in reality, even less than 0.295% of the world population will have 1 bitcoin. The distribution may be something like this

Top 20% (of world population)
owns about 0.011 (11 millibitcoin) on average. (note that this is the UPPER CLASS)

they have a total of about 15 million bitcoin combined

High 20%
owns an average of 0.0025 bitcoin per person (2.5 millibitcoin)

they have just over 3.5 million bitcoin combined

Middle 20%
average of 0.00075 bitcoin (0.75 millibitcoin)

they have just about a million bitcoin combined (divided over 1.43 billion people!) Note that this is 'middle class'. Having 1 bitcoin would mean you're about 1333 times richer than middle class!

Low 20%
they own just about 200,000 bitcoin combined, each of them having an average of about 0.00015 bitcoin (0.15 millibitcoin)

Bottom 20%

the bottom 1 430 000 000 people will have less than 0.000075 (7500 satoshi) each, their entire 'fortune' is what we now refer to as 'dust'.
The total amount of bitcoin in the bottom 20% of the world will be hardly even 100,000 bitcoin


do you see why many of us think 1 bitcoin would be 1 million+ in value? They are more scarce than you'd think.

this is correct from the math standpoint, but cannot be correct from the social standpoint.
0.01BTC is way too small amount for the top 20%. BTC has to be at $10-50 mil for it to be possible from the social standpoint. There are other possible solutions:
1. bitcoin derivatization like fractional banking system where there will be a <home>coin that will be derived at 1:100 from btc, people will use homecoin, but banks will hold certain percentage of btc against the value of homecoin.
2. more than 21 mil will be printed/mined.
3. a coin with more than 21 mil units will take over.
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September 22, 2014, 06:54:10 PM
 #46

do you mean the % of humans on the planet, or the % of bitcoin users?

it's impossible for more than 0.295% of the world population to ever have 1 bitcoin, so if bitcoin becomes mainstream, everyone with 1 bitcoin will be the top 0.295% at the least.

but this is assuming 21 million people all have 1 bitcoin, but of course some people have more than 1 bitcon, and many people have less.

so in reality, even less than 0.295% of the world population will have 1 bitcoin. The distribution may be something like this

Top 20% (of world population)
owns about 0.011 (11 millibitcoin) on average. (note that this is the UPPER CLASS)

they have a total of about 15 million bitcoin combined

High 20%
owns an average of 0.0025 bitcoin per person (2.5 millibitcoin)

they have just over 3.5 million bitcoin combined

Middle 20%
average of 0.00075 bitcoin (0.75 millibitcoin)

they have just about a million bitcoin combined (divided over 1.43 billion people!) Note that this is 'middle class'. Having 1 bitcoin would mean you're about 1333 times richer than middle class!

Low 20%
they own just about 200,000 bitcoin combined, each of them having an average of about 0.00015 bitcoin (0.15 millibitcoin)

Bottom 20%

the bottom 1 430 000 000 people will have less than 0.000075 (7500 satoshi) each, their entire 'fortune' is what we now refer to as 'dust'.
The total amount of bitcoin in the bottom 20% of the world will be hardly even 100,000 bitcoin


do you see why many of us think 1 bitcoin would be 1 million+ in value? They are more scarce than you'd think.

this is correct from the math standpoint, but cannot be correct from the social standpoint.
0.01BTC is way too small amount for the top 20%. BTC has to be at $10-50 mil for it to be possible from the social standpoint. There are other possible solutions:
1. bitcoin derivatization like fractional banking system where there will be a <home>coin that will be derived at 1:100 from btc, people will use homecoin, but banks will hold certain percentage of btc against the value of homecoin.
2. more than 21 mil will be printed/mined.
3. a coin with more than 21 mil units will take over.

But why. Bitcoin is divisible enough.
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September 22, 2014, 07:53:19 PM
 #47

This is an interesting question. If bitcoin becomes heavily adopted, many late comers won't have more than 1 bitcoin I think. However, bitcoin needs to survive for 10 years without anything replacing it and needs to become more common. Lets hope it continues on an upward trend.
The whole process of distribution for the last year reinforces bitcoin state as nothing more than a Ponzi scheme. When the distribution is skewed very badly towards early adopters, they will have almost total control over the market. There are 47 individuals own 28.9% of the approximately 12 millions Bitcoins in existence so far and another 1000 own 21.5%, meaning that a slightly more than 1100 people control half of the entire market cap of the digital currency. And total about a million people own $10,000 or less worth. Those shareholders could manipulate arbitrarily. I think I'll keep my money elsewhere....

It is true that people with large positions have quite a bit of control over the market. Although this is true with all things such as the stock market where large shareholders have a lot of power to move the markets as well.
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September 22, 2014, 09:38:09 PM
 #48

do you mean the % of humans on the planet, or the % of bitcoin users?

it's impossible for more than 0.295% of the world population to ever have 1 bitcoin, so if bitcoin becomes mainstream, everyone with 1 bitcoin will be the top 0.295% at the least.

but this is assuming 21 million people all have 1 bitcoin, but of course some people have more than 1 bitcon, and many people have less.

so in reality, even less than 0.295% of the world population will have 1 bitcoin. The distribution may be something like this

Top 20% (of world population)
owns about 0.011 (11 millibitcoin) on average. (note that this is the UPPER CLASS)

they have a total of about 15 million bitcoin combined

High 20%
owns an average of 0.0025 bitcoin per person (2.5 millibitcoin)

they have just over 3.5 million bitcoin combined

Middle 20%
average of 0.00075 bitcoin (0.75 millibitcoin)

they have just about a million bitcoin combined (divided over 1.43 billion people!) Note that this is 'middle class'. Having 1 bitcoin would mean you're about 1333 times richer than middle class!

Low 20%
they own just about 200,000 bitcoin combined, each of them having an average of about 0.00015 bitcoin (0.15 millibitcoin)

Bottom 20%

the bottom 1 430 000 000 people will have less than 0.000075 (7500 satoshi) each, their entire 'fortune' is what we now refer to as 'dust'.
The total amount of bitcoin in the bottom 20% of the world will be hardly even 100,000 bitcoin


do you see why many of us think 1 bitcoin would be 1 million+ in value? They are more scarce than you'd think.

this is correct from the math standpoint, but cannot be correct from the social standpoint.
0.01BTC is way too small amount for the top 20%. BTC has to be at $10-50 mil for it to be possible from the social standpoint. There are other possible solutions:
1. bitcoin derivatization like fractional banking system where there will be a <home>coin that will be derived at 1:100 from btc, people will use homecoin, but banks will hold certain percentage of btc against the value of homecoin.
2. more than 21 mil will be printed/mined.
3. a coin with more than 21 mil units will take over.

None of your options makes sense.

0.01 bitcoin may sound small, but it can't be much higher because simply, there is not more than that to go around. And there won't be, that's the point.

Deravatis and fractional reserve is very bad for bitcoin and it will not and should not happen on a large scale with bitcoin. The philosophy of 'if you don't own the private key, you don't own the bitcoin' needs to stay strong.

Also, they will probably count in satoshies by then. Because 1 bitcoin would be so extremely expensive that it's not practical to count in bitcoin. You might as well count in the number of ferraris you own.

So, rich people will own millions of satoshi, while average people own a couple of thousands or hundred thousands. So there's no problem in only having 21 million full bitcoin, because we can just count in fractions of it.
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September 23, 2014, 04:57:41 PM
 #49

do you mean the % of humans on the planet, or the % of bitcoin users?

it's impossible for more than 0.295% of the world population to ever have 1 bitcoin, so if bitcoin becomes mainstream, everyone with 1 bitcoin will be the top 0.295% at the least.

but this is assuming 21 million people all have 1 bitcoin, but of course some people have more than 1 bitcon, and many people have less.

so in reality, even less than 0.295% of the world population will have 1 bitcoin. The distribution may be something like this

Top 20% (of world population)
owns about 0.011 (11 millibitcoin) on average. (note that this is the UPPER CLASS)

they have a total of about 15 million bitcoin combined

High 20%
owns an average of 0.0025 bitcoin per person (2.5 millibitcoin)

they have just over 3.5 million bitcoin combined

Middle 20%
average of 0.00075 bitcoin (0.75 millibitcoin)

they have just about a million bitcoin combined (divided over 1.43 billion people!) Note that this is 'middle class'. Having 1 bitcoin would mean you're about 1333 times richer than middle class!

Low 20%
they own just about 200,000 bitcoin combined, each of them having an average of about 0.00015 bitcoin (0.15 millibitcoin)

Bottom 20%

the bottom 1 430 000 000 people will have less than 0.000075 (7500 satoshi) each, their entire 'fortune' is what we now refer to as 'dust'.
The total amount of bitcoin in the bottom 20% of the world will be hardly even 100,000 bitcoin


do you see why many of us think 1 bitcoin would be 1 million+ in value? They are more scarce than you'd think.

this is correct from the math standpoint, but cannot be correct from the social standpoint.
0.01BTC is way too small amount for the top 20%. BTC has to be at $10-50 mil for it to be possible from the social standpoint. There are other possible solutions:
1. bitcoin derivatization like fractional banking system where there will be a <home>coin that will be derived at 1:100 from btc, people will use homecoin, but banks will hold certain percentage of btc against the value of homecoin.
2. more than 21 mil will be printed/mined.
3. a coin with more than 21 mil units will take over.

None of your options makes sense.

0.01 bitcoin may sound small, but it can't be much higher because simply, there is not more than that to go around. And there won't be, that's the point.

Deravatis and fractional reserve is very bad for bitcoin and it will not and should not happen on a large scale with bitcoin. The philosophy of 'if you don't own the private key, you don't own the bitcoin' needs to stay strong.

Also, they will probably count in satoshies by then. Because 1 bitcoin would be so extremely expensive that it's not practical to count in bitcoin. You might as well count in the number of ferraris you own.

So, rich people will own millions of satoshi, while average people own a couple of thousands or hundred thousands. So there's no problem in only having 21 million full bitcoin, because we can just count in fractions of it.

For 0.01 to be valuable, we'll need to see a level of adoption to the point entire salaries are paid in BTC. Unless we see a full economy going based on Bitcoin (with jobs paid in BTC, and BTC not being a fucking crazy rollercoaster), and we see this at a massive scale, then maybe someday 1 BTC puts you on a pedestal. By then you'll probably be on a casket tho.
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September 23, 2014, 09:58:49 PM
 #50

do you mean the % of humans on the planet, or the % of bitcoin users?

it's impossible for more than 0.295% of the world population to ever have 1 bitcoin, so if bitcoin becomes mainstream, everyone with 1 bitcoin will be the top 0.295% at the least.

but this is assuming 21 million people all have 1 bitcoin, but of course some people have more than 1 bitcon, and many people have less.

so in reality, even less than 0.295% of the world population will have 1 bitcoin. The distribution may be something like this

Top 20% (of world population)
owns about 0.011 (11 millibitcoin) on average. (note that this is the UPPER CLASS)

they have a total of about 15 million bitcoin combined

High 20%
owns an average of 0.0025 bitcoin per person (2.5 millibitcoin)

they have just over 3.5 million bitcoin combined

Middle 20%
average of 0.00075 bitcoin (0.75 millibitcoin)

they have just about a million bitcoin combined (divided over 1.43 billion people!) Note that this is 'middle class'. Having 1 bitcoin would mean you're about 1333 times richer than middle class!

Low 20%
they own just about 200,000 bitcoin combined, each of them having an average of about 0.00015 bitcoin (0.15 millibitcoin)

Bottom 20%

the bottom 1 430 000 000 people will have less than 0.000075 (7500 satoshi) each, their entire 'fortune' is what we now refer to as 'dust'.
The total amount of bitcoin in the bottom 20% of the world will be hardly even 100,000 bitcoin


do you see why many of us think 1 bitcoin would be 1 million+ in value? They are more scarce than you'd think.

this is correct from the math standpoint, but cannot be correct from the social standpoint.
0.01BTC is way too small amount for the top 20%. BTC has to be at $10-50 mil for it to be possible from the social standpoint. There are other possible solutions:
1. bitcoin derivatization like fractional banking system where there will be a <home>coin that will be derived at 1:100 from btc, people will use homecoin, but banks will hold certain percentage of btc against the value of homecoin.
2. more than 21 mil will be printed/mined.
3. a coin with more than 21 mil units will take over.

Deravatis derivatives and fractional reserve is very bad for bitcoin and it will not and should not happen on a large scale with bitcoin. The philosophy of 'if you don't own the private key, you don't own the bitcoin' needs to stay strong.

Also, they will probably count in satoshies by then. Because 1 bitcoin would be so extremely expensive that it's not practical to count in bitcoin. You might as well count in the number of ferraris you own.

So, rich people will own millions of satoshi, while average people own a couple of thousands or hundred thousands. So there's no problem in only having 21 million full bitcoin, because we can just count in fractions of it.

I don't have as much much grasp of the future as you extoll, but you cannot stop derivatization as soon as you have an ETF (upcoming COIN, BIT). Do you think GLD ETF really have gold (as much as they should-I seriously doubt this).
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September 25, 2014, 04:17:09 PM
 #51

do you mean the % of humans on the planet, or the % of bitcoin users?

it's impossible for more than 0.295% of the world population to ever have 1 bitcoin, so if bitcoin becomes mainstream, everyone with 1 bitcoin will be the top 0.295% at the least.

but this is assuming 21 million people all have 1 bitcoin, but of course some people have more than 1 bitcon, and many people have less.

so in reality, even less than 0.295% of the world population will have 1 bitcoin. The distribution may be something like this

Top 20% (of world population)
owns about 0.011 (11 millibitcoin) on average. (note that this is the UPPER CLASS)

they have a total of about 15 million bitcoin combined

High 20%
owns an average of 0.0025 bitcoin per person (2.5 millibitcoin)

they have just over 3.5 million bitcoin combined

Middle 20%
average of 0.00075 bitcoin (0.75 millibitcoin)

they have just about a million bitcoin combined (divided over 1.43 billion people!) Note that this is 'middle class'. Having 1 bitcoin would mean you're about 1333 times richer than middle class!

Low 20%
they own just about 200,000 bitcoin combined, each of them having an average of about 0.00015 bitcoin (0.15 millibitcoin)

Bottom 20%

the bottom 1 430 000 000 people will have less than 0.000075 (7500 satoshi) each, their entire 'fortune' is what we now refer to as 'dust'.
The total amount of bitcoin in the bottom 20% of the world will be hardly even 100,000 bitcoin


do you see why many of us think 1 bitcoin would be 1 million+ in value? They are more scarce than you'd think.

this is correct from the math standpoint, but cannot be correct from the social standpoint.
0.01BTC is way too small amount for the top 20%. BTC has to be at $10-50 mil for it to be possible from the social standpoint. There are other possible solutions:
1. bitcoin derivatization like fractional banking system where there will be a <home>coin that will be derived at 1:100 from btc, people will use homecoin, but banks will hold certain percentage of btc against the value of homecoin.
2. more than 21 mil will be printed/mined.
3. a coin with more than 21 mil units will take over.

Deravatis derivatives and fractional reserve is very bad for bitcoin and it will not and should not happen on a large scale with bitcoin. The philosophy of 'if you don't own the private key, you don't own the bitcoin' needs to stay strong.

Also, they will probably count in satoshies by then. Because 1 bitcoin would be so extremely expensive that it's not practical to count in bitcoin. You might as well count in the number of ferraris you own.

So, rich people will own millions of satoshi, while average people own a couple of thousands or hundred thousands. So there's no problem in only having 21 million full bitcoin, because we can just count in fractions of it.

I don't have as much much grasp of the future as you extoll, but you cannot stop derivatization as soon as you have an ETF (upcoming COIN, BIT). Do you think GLD ETF really have gold (as much as they should-I seriously doubt this).

There are usually checks and balances to ensure this.
If they do not have enough gold, and gold price moves up, they may not be able to give the investors necessary returns.
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September 25, 2014, 06:45:59 PM
 #52

do you mean the % of humans on the planet, or the % of bitcoin users?

it's impossible for more than 0.295% of the world population to ever have 1 bitcoin, so if bitcoin becomes mainstream, everyone with 1 bitcoin will be the top 0.295% at the least.

but this is assuming 21 million people all have 1 bitcoin, but of course some people have more than 1 bitcon, and many people have less.

so in reality, even less than 0.295% of the world population will have 1 bitcoin. The distribution may be something like this

Top 20% (of world population)
owns about 0.011 (11 millibitcoin) on average. (note that this is the UPPER CLASS)

they have a total of about 15 million bitcoin combined

High 20%
owns an average of 0.0025 bitcoin per person (2.5 millibitcoin)

they have just over 3.5 million bitcoin combined

Middle 20%
average of 0.00075 bitcoin (0.75 millibitcoin)

they have just about a million bitcoin combined (divided over 1.43 billion people!) Note that this is 'middle class'. Having 1 bitcoin would mean you're about 1333 times richer than middle class!

Low 20%
they own just about 200,000 bitcoin combined, each of them having an average of about 0.00015 bitcoin (0.15 millibitcoin)

Bottom 20%

the bottom 1 430 000 000 people will have less than 0.000075 (7500 satoshi) each, their entire 'fortune' is what we now refer to as 'dust'.
The total amount of bitcoin in the bottom 20% of the world will be hardly even 100,000 bitcoin


do you see why many of us think 1 bitcoin would be 1 million+ in value? They are more scarce than you'd think.

this is correct from the math standpoint, but cannot be correct from the social standpoint.
0.01BTC is way too small amount for the top 20%. BTC has to be at $10-50 mil for it to be possible from the social standpoint. There are other possible solutions:
1. bitcoin derivatization like fractional banking system where there will be a <home>coin that will be derived at 1:100 from btc, people will use homecoin, but banks will hold certain percentage of btc against the value of homecoin.
2. more than 21 mil will be printed/mined.
3. a coin with more than 21 mil units will take over.

None of your options makes sense.

0.01 bitcoin may sound small, but it can't be much higher because simply, there is not more than that to go around. And there won't be, that's the point.

Deravatis and fractional reserve is very bad for bitcoin and it will not and should not happen on a large scale with bitcoin. The philosophy of 'if you don't own the private key, you don't own the bitcoin' needs to stay strong.

Also, they will probably count in satoshies by then. Because 1 bitcoin would be so extremely expensive that it's not practical to count in bitcoin. You might as well count in the number of ferraris you own.

So, rich people will own millions of satoshi, while average people own a couple of thousands or hundred thousands. So there's no problem in only having 21 million full bitcoin, because we can just count in fractions of it.

For 0.01 to be valuable, we'll need to see a level of adoption to the point entire salaries are paid in BTC. Unless we see a full economy going based on Bitcoin (with jobs paid in BTC, and BTC not being a fucking crazy rollercoaster), and we see this at a massive scale, then maybe someday 1 BTC puts you on a pedestal. By then you'll probably be on a casket tho.

i think this will happen within 10 years, 20 max.

i dont plan on dying that soon.

as for the ETF, it's easier to prove you have bitcoin, than to prove you have gold.

People could and should demand proof of ownership.
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September 26, 2014, 05:25:57 AM
 #53

do you mean the % of humans on the planet, or the % of bitcoin users?

it's impossible for more than 0.295% of the world population to ever have 1 bitcoin, so if bitcoin becomes mainstream, everyone with 1 bitcoin will be the top 0.295% at the least.

but this is assuming 21 million people all have 1 bitcoin, but of course some people have more than 1 bitcon, and many people have less.

so in reality, even less than 0.295% of the world population will have 1 bitcoin. The distribution may be something like this

Top 20% (of world population)
owns about 0.011 (11 millibitcoin) on average. (note that this is the UPPER CLASS)

they have a total of about 15 million bitcoin combined

High 20%
owns an average of 0.0025 bitcoin per person (2.5 millibitcoin)

they have just over 3.5 million bitcoin combined

Middle 20%
average of 0.00075 bitcoin (0.75 millibitcoin)

they have just about a million bitcoin combined (divided over 1.43 billion people!) Note that this is 'middle class'. Having 1 bitcoin would mean you're about 1333 times richer than middle class!

Low 20%
they own just about 200,000 bitcoin combined, each of them having an average of about 0.00015 bitcoin (0.15 millibitcoin)

Bottom 20%

the bottom 1 430 000 000 people will have less than 0.000075 (7500 satoshi) each, their entire 'fortune' is what we now refer to as 'dust'.
The total amount of bitcoin in the bottom 20% of the world will be hardly even 100,000 bitcoin


do you see why many of us think 1 bitcoin would be 1 million+ in value? They are more scarce than you'd think.

this is correct from the math standpoint, but cannot be correct from the social standpoint.
0.01BTC is way too small amount for the top 20%. BTC has to be at $10-50 mil for it to be possible from the social standpoint. There are other possible solutions:
1. bitcoin derivatization like fractional banking system where there will be a <home>coin that will be derived at 1:100 from btc, people will use homecoin, but banks will hold certain percentage of btc against the value of homecoin.
2. more than 21 mil will be printed/mined.
3. a coin with more than 21 mil units will take over.

Deravatis derivatives and fractional reserve is very bad for bitcoin and it will not and should not happen on a large scale with bitcoin. The philosophy of 'if you don't own the private key, you don't own the bitcoin' needs to stay strong.

Also, they will probably count in satoshies by then. Because 1 bitcoin would be so extremely expensive that it's not practical to count in bitcoin. You might as well count in the number of ferraris you own.

So, rich people will own millions of satoshi, while average people own a couple of thousands or hundred thousands. So there's no problem in only having 21 million full bitcoin, because we can just count in fractions of it.

I don't have as much much grasp of the future as you extoll, but you cannot stop derivatization as soon as you have an ETF (upcoming COIN, BIT). Do you think GLD ETF really have gold (as much as they should-I seriously doubt this).
Yes. The trustees of the ETF will not issue shares unless there is gold to back up the shares. If they did not have the associated gold then they would be charged with fraud
neurotypical
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September 26, 2014, 01:40:38 PM
 #54

1% of world population = 70 millions of people.

There will be 21 millions bitcoin , so more than 1 btc per person for 1% of population is not possible due to something called maths Wink


So people going to have only few sats instead of bitcoin.
It is good to us Wink

yes, once more people realize this, they will also realize that $500 is a real bargain.

It's basically investing a minor part of your income now (for many, it's not even a monthly wage) for a chance of having an extremely large share in the future of money.

If you lose, well, big deal, it's just some pocket money you lost.

If you win, you'll be richer than today's millionaires.


This sounds like basically the lottery to me. And we have greater chances to die poor if we are supossed to wait for BTC to go 1 million dollars.
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October 01, 2014, 02:12:44 PM
 #55

Maybe 2-3% of the world.
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