In 10 years, when BTC is mainstream what % of people will own 1 BTC

[EnfoncerQ2]

How will the distribution look like in 10 years?

[Febo]

How will the distribution look like in 10 years?

11%

[zimmah]

do you mean the % of humans on the planet, or the % of bitcoin users?

it's impossible for more than 0.295% of the world population to ever have 1 bitcoin, so if bitcoin becomes mainstream, everyone with 1 bitcoin will be the top 0.295% at the least.

but this is assuming 21 million people all have 1 bitcoin, but of course some people have more than 1 bitcon, and many people have less.

so in reality, even less than 0.295% of the world population will have 1 bitcoin. The distribution may be something like this

Top 20% (of world population)
owns about 0.011 (11 millibitcoin) on average. (note that this is the UPPER CLASS)

they have a total of about 15 million bitcoin combined

High 20%
owns an average of 0.0025 bitcoin per person (2.5 millibitcoin)

they have just over 3.5 million bitcoin combined

Middle 20%
average of 0.00075 bitcoin (0.75 millibitcoin)

they have just about a million bitcoin combined (divided over 1.43 billion people!) Note that this is 'middle class'. Having 1 bitcoin would mean you're about 1333 times richer than middle class!

Low 20%
they own just about 200,000 bitcoin combined, each of them having an average of about 0.00015 bitcoin (0.15 millibitcoin)

Bottom 20%

the bottom 1 430 000 000 people will have less than 0.000075 (7500 satoshi) each, their entire 'fortune' is what we now refer to as 'dust'.
The total amount of bitcoin in the bottom 20% of the world will be hardly even 100,000 bitcoin


do you see why many of us think 1 bitcoin would be 1 million+ in value? They are more scarce than you'd think.

[KJO]

In 10 years, when BTC is mainstream what % of people will own 1 BTC

Not many. By then, 1 BTC will be so expensive it would be like purchasing a house.

[Malin Keshar]

In 10 years, when BTC is mainstream what % of people will own 1 BTC

Not many. By then, 1 BTC will be so expensive it would be like purchasing a house.

Not few people (more than 0.3%) have money to buy a house.

I guess would be more like buy certain luxury items, that really few people can afford

[lemfuture]

if ever bitcoin goes mainstream..and hopefull my lone 1 btc don't get hack 

[zimmah]

In 10 years, when BTC is mainstream what % of people will own 1 BTC

Not many. By then, 1 BTC will be so expensive it would be like purchasing a house.

Not few people (more than 0.3%) have money to buy a house.

I guess would be more like buy certain luxury items, that really few people can afford

if bitcoin replaces all fiat, it'd be easily worth 20 million by todays standard.

[jbrnt]

If bitcoin goes mainstream, I would guess less than 1% of the world population will have more than 1 btc. But then, most people wouldn't need more than 1 btc, cos most things they buy would be in ubtc. We could probably buy a car with 1 btc.

[marechoux]

1% of world population = 70 millions of people.

There will be 21 millions bitcoin , so more than 1 btc per person for 1% of population is not possible due to something called maths

[zimmah]

1% of world population = 70 millions of people.

There will be 21 millions bitcoin , so more than 1 btc per person for 1% of population is not possible due to something called maths

exactly, that's why 1 bitcoin will be EXTREMELY valuable if enough people in the world start to decide bitcoin is more useful than dollars/euros or credit cards.

and i'm not even talking about other things, as bitcoin can replace much more than just money.

buying 1 car or 1 house for 1 bitcoin is just the beginning

[Pacowomo]

Interesting data by zimmah

[marney111]

Its either bitcoin will be history after 10 years or I will be paying my bills with it.

[OrientA]

1% of world population = 70 millions of people.

There will be 21 millions bitcoin , so more than 1 btc per person for 1% of population is not possible due to something called maths

exactly, that's why 1 bitcoin will be EXTREMELY valuable if enough people in the world start to decide bitcoin is more useful than dollars/euros or credit cards.

and i'm not even talking about other things, as bitcoin can replace much more than just money.

buying 1 car or 1 house for 1 bitcoin is just the beginning

Just the beginning.

[nottoorich]

So if 7500 satoshi is a fair amount of coins to have in the future, I can be considered retired.

[jpouza]

So if 7500 satoshi is a fair amount of coins to have in the future, I can be considered retired.

10 years is too much time in crypto...

Many things will happen, nothing is certain...or BTC vanishes completely or it will spread like a cancer (benign of course , 50:50 chances.

Quantum computers? 3rd WWar? Total World Economy collapse? Alien invasion? hahah

Cheers

[IIOII]

Bitcoin won't be mainstream in 10 years.

If Bitcoin reaches mainstream the percentage of people owning a certain amount of Bitcoin will not remain static but will slowly decline, because generally wealth tends to accumulate in a small group of individuals. You also have to take in consideration that over time coins are lost, which will have an impact once the supply of new coins drys up.

If mainstream adoption occurs, the percentage of people who own 1 Bitcoin or more will be extremely small. A reasonable estimate has been given by zimmah.

[lihuajkl]

Its either bitcoin will be history after 10 years or I will be paying my bills with it.

the problem is no one knows the fate of bitcoin in 10 years time. The best things we can do now is holding.

[zimmah]

So if 7500 satoshi is a fair amount of coins to have in the future, I can be considered retired.

well, first of all the data is theoretical and assuming bitcoin becomes world's most influential currency, this may or may not happen, and even if it does happen, it will likely take another 10~20 years. (for full maturity, it's still entirely possible for bitcoin to become worth $100.000 or so within one or two years, in the most positive scenario)

secondly, 7500 satoshi are fine for the bottom 20% of humanity, and are a vast improvement compared to the bottom 20% nowadays, but still you wouldn't be able to stay on par with western standards with just 7500 satoshi. To be safe i'd try to be at least in the middle class range, if you can.

Note that 80% of the world population lives on less than 10 dollars a day ($3650/year) The bottom 20% currently lives on about $1.25/day (456.25/year) (in fact i get more than that on student grants alone, per month!)

The distribution i predicted is less harsh for the poorer people of society, the wealth distribution is much more even than the current distribution, because bitcoin does not rip of the poor nearly as much as fiat does, however, poor people will still exist even with bitcoin, it will just be a little more acceptable for them because they can now engage in global economic activity without having to pay huge fees to western union or banks, or even having no bank and/or not even having the option to sell their labor to the international or even national market.

The best thing is, the poor people will be able to become much richer by providing interesting goods/services to the rich and the only 3 things they need is:
1) Creativity (offer something that does not exist yet in europe/america, but is interesting for us to have)
2) Internet, to promote your product internationally
3) A bitcoin wallet, to accept payment

Rich people (people with many bitcoin) will probably look for such novelty items (or services) just for the fun of it, and the poor people will be able to make himself a little richer by it. The gap between poor and rich will slowly start to fade.

Compared to todays standard, the people who have 7500 satoshi (assuming they either leverage some of their bitcoins by investing it into smart businesses or actually set up something of their own to generate some income) will still be better of than living on $1.25/day, but not so much better that they could survive in western europe with that amount of money.

That is the theory at least. The future may look different, nobody can know for sure.

It's just an indication that even tiny amounts of bitcoin may make you relatively (or absolutely) rich.

[zimmah]

So if 7500 satoshi is a fair amount of coins to have in the future, I can be considered retired.

10 years is too much time in crypto...

Many things will happen, nothing is certain...or BTC vanishes completely or it will spread like a cancer (benign of course , 50:50 chances.

Quantum computers? 3rd WWar? Total World Economy collapse? Alien invasion? hahah

Cheers

Quantum computers are not going to be a problem to bitcoin, they might need to update the protocol a little, but bitcoin will not become worthless.

There have been many posts in the post proving you'd need the power of the entire GALAXY to power a computer that can crack bitcoin, even with the most efficient hardware possible, on the atomic level. So quantum computers won't be a problem. And even if they can somehow crack SHA256 (which i doubt), they would more likely attack banks and cloud storage before cracking bitcoin. So your money is not safe anywhere in that case. And we'd likely fall into complete anarchy if that were to happen. So even non-digital money (assuming that still exists by the time SHA256 is cracked) would not be safe.

WWIII, may happen, and maybe sooner than we think. If it's good or bad for bitcoin, remains to be seen. In my opinion, it may be bad on the short term, but good in the long term, especially if the dollar loses much of its power, regardless of america losing/winning the war.

Total economic collapse, probably good for bitcoin, depending on the speed at which it happens. If it happens so fast people can not buy bitcoin, than it's useless, but in that case we won't have any money at all, so we'd look for alternatives. Once the world finally rebuilds, we may consider bitcoin again, as we may have learned from our mistakes in the past.

Alien invasion, even if that happens, we will not know the effects. Not on bitcoin, not an any aspect of life. Knowing our governments, they would likely hide the fact that aliens ever visited us, and try to either diplomatically or by force get technology from them, and keep it for themselves. Especially military technology (alien spacecraft, weapons (both biological and firearms or more advanced weaponry), computer hardware and software, etc). Even if it somehow leaks, or if aliens roam around the earth, many people who are scared or stupid may be very racist toward them and anger them, and it may lead to all out war with aliens, which we will probably lose because aliens who invented ways to get here from large distances are probably way more advanced than we are.

[arcanum]

I hope i can retire with my btc, its my only hope, the rest is just depression and missery.