[ANN] Asset Allocation during Financial Crash. +20.9% Annualized Gains

[S3052]

This is to share that I will publish my real asset allocation live here in a regular basis. I do this as it might be helpful to see for people who also agree that we are just before a major financial turbulence.


My hypotheses are:
1) Stocks will crash by 2016 and will mark new 15-20 year lows.
2) Precious metals will survive better but will also decline first before rallying strongly. It is key to own physical precious metal, not paper certificates.
3) The US Dollar will initially fare better against other currencies (particularly against the EUR), but then crash as well and may disappear in its current form by 2017-2018.
4) Overall asset prices and prices of goods will decline = we are in a unprecedented deflation.

You don't have to agree to this view. Most of these views are also similar to those offered on www.bullbearanalytics.com, but this specific thread is solely based on my personal point of view.


Assets September 14, 2014.

90% Cash (USD)
6% Gold
2% Short Stocks (S&P 500)
1% Bitcoin
0.8% Monero
0.2% DIEM (as a "playground play", no serious fundamentals behind)

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[BldSwtTrs]

Why so few cryptos?

[hf100]

Are you anticipating a bitcoin and alt crypto crash soon?

[S3052]

Why so few cryptos?

Because
i) Cryptos have the second mover disadvantage. Bitcoin has the first mover advantage and unless bitcoin runs into a major problem, wil always be stronger longterm. Just look at Coke. First mover and always ahead of Pepsi, despite unrelentless attempts of Pepsi to take over market leadership.
ii) Most cryptos do not have a big enough competitive advantage or differentiation to overcome barrier i)
iii) Monero might gain more traction and that's why I hold them

Which ones do you suggest. I am happy to get convinced depending on your arguments.

[kryptopojken]

I think the question is, why do you only have 1% in btc?

[JimNastics]

Why so few cryptos?

Because
i) Cryptos have the second mover disadvantage. Bitcoin has the first mover advantage and unless bitcoin runs into a major problem, wil always be stronger longterm. Just look at Coke. First mover and always ahead of Pepsi, despite unrelentless attempts of Pepsi to take over market leadership.
ii) Most cryptos do not have a big enough competitive advantage or differentiation to overcome barrier i)
iii) Monero might gain more traction and that's why I hold them

Which ones do you suggest. I am happy to get convinced depending on your arguments.

I think has saying why so few btc.

[BldSwtTrs]

Why so few cryptos?

Because
i) Cryptos have the second mover disadvantage. Bitcoin has the first mover advantage and unless bitcoin runs into a major problem, wil always be stronger longterm. Just look at Coke. First mover and always ahead of Pepsi, despite unrelentless attempts of Pepsi to take over market leadership.
ii) Most cryptos do not have a big enough competitive advantage or differentiation to overcome barrier i)
iii) Monero might gain more traction and that's why I hold them

Which ones do you suggest. I am happy to get convinced depending on your arguments.

OK thanks, but then why so few BTC?

1% doesn't sound a lot, unless you are very rich.

[S3052]

Are you anticipating a bitcoin and alt crypto crash soon?

For bitcoin forecasts, please refer to http://bit.ly/1qUp4qN. To be fair to the huge subscriber pool, we cannot publish the forecasts here.

In general, bitcoin may be stronger than many other assets, but since it is also a speculative vehicle, it may get affected by the ongoing and worsening flight to cash - as people may need to liquidate a lot of assets to pay their bills or cover losses in other assets.

Hope this helps you.

[S3052]

Why so few cryptos?

Because
i) Cryptos have the second mover disadvantage. Bitcoin has the first mover advantage and unless bitcoin runs into a major problem, will always be stronger longterm. Just look at Coke. First mover and always ahead of Pepsi, despite unrelentless attempts of Pepsi to take over market leadership.
ii) Most cryptos do not have a big enough competitive advantage or differentiation to overcome barrier i)
iii) Monero might gain more traction and that's why I hold them

Which ones do you suggest. I am happy to get convinced depending on your arguments.

OK thanks, but then why so few BTC?

1% doesn't sound a lot, unless you are very rich.

Unfortunately I am not rich...
We are talking a couple of thousands here, but more importantly, the point of this is to show the allocation in percentages, so that rich or less rich people can scale it to their needs.

About why no more BTC? I had close to 100% a while ago. But since the 1200 $ top, I went out. I will go in again when I judge the time is right.

[yokosan]

Why so few cryptos?

Because
i) Cryptos have the second mover disadvantage. Bitcoin has the first mover advantage and unless bitcoin runs into a major problem, will always be stronger longterm. Just look at Coke. First mover and always ahead of Pepsi, despite unrelentless attempts of Pepsi to take over market leadership.
ii) Most cryptos do not have a big enough competitive advantage or differentiation to overcome barrier i)
iii) Monero might gain more traction and that's why I hold them

Which ones do you suggest. I am happy to get convinced depending on your arguments.

OK thanks, but then why so few BTC?

1% doesn't sound a lot, unless you are very rich.

Unfortunately I am not rich...
We are talking a couple of thousands here, but more importantly, the point of this is to show the allocation in percentages, so that rich or less rich people can scale it to their needs.

About why no more BTC? I had close to 100% a while ago. But since the 1200 $ top, I went out. I will go in again when I judge the time is right.

Can you confirm that you consider the time right after we have had some sustained upward movement. Going for the lower risk approach of seeing the price going up, rather than trying to time the bottom?

[S3052]

Why so few cryptos?

Because
i) Cryptos have the second mover disadvantage. Bitcoin has the first mover advantage and unless bitcoin runs into a major problem, will always be stronger longterm. Just look at Coke. First mover and always ahead of Pepsi, despite unrelentless attempts of Pepsi to take over market leadership.
ii) Most cryptos do not have a big enough competitive advantage or differentiation to overcome barrier i)
iii) Monero might gain more traction and that's why I hold them

Which ones do you suggest. I am happy to get convinced depending on your arguments.

OK thanks, but then why so few BTC?

1% doesn't sound a lot, unless you are very rich.

Unfortunately I am not rich...
We are talking a couple of thousands here, but more importantly, the point of this is to show the allocation in percentages, so that rich or less rich people can scale it to their needs.

About why no more BTC? I had close to 100% a while ago. But since the 1200 $ top, I went out. I will go in again when I judge the time is right.

Can you confirm that you consider the time right after we have had some sustained upward movement. Going for the lower risk approach of seeing the price going up, rather than trying to time the bottom?

yes, correct. This is my approach. I keep 1% in BTC and wait for buying more at a clear upward breakout or seeing a more panic-style bottom. We cover the proper timing for a bigger BTC allocation 24/7 here: http://bit.ly/1qUp4qN.

[CryptoCarmen]

I really dont understand you. your predictions are that most fiat currencies will die in just next few years, but you hold 90% of your wealth in USD.

[Dalmar]

Why short the S&P when there is absolutely no long term bearish confirmation (like a weekly EMA/MA crossover etc.).

There is a high probability you will get squeezed and the S&P will just continue to rally to 2100.

[Arv1e]

90% Cash (USD)
6% Gold
2% Short Stocks (S&P 500)
1% Bitcoin
0.8% Monero
0.2% DIEM (as a "playground play", no serious fundamentals behind)

If this is meant to be some form of investment strategy then i can't take you seriously. I will share 2 reasons. No doubt the forum will add a few more.

1.  90% investment in cash. Cash isn't an investment at less than 1% return so unless you think every other form of investment is about to devalue, by comparision, then its like putting it under your bed.

2 Having 1% only in bitcoin. What is the point? bitcoin is high risk with high potential return. 1% suggests you don't believe in Bitcoin so why bother as when it flies off to the moon you will enjoy unprecedented returns on almost F! all!

Seems to me you are worried about losing more than making.

[Dalmar]

If this is meant to be some form of investment strategy then i can't take you seriously. I will share 2 reasons. No doubt the forum will add a few more.

1.  90% investment in cash. Cash isn't an investment at less than 1% return so unless you think every other form of investment is about to devalue, by comparision, then its like putting it under your bed.

2 Having 1% only in bitcoin. What is the point? bitcoin is high risk with high potential return. 1% suggests you don't believe in Bitcoin so why bother as when it flies off to the moon you will enjoy unprecedented returns on almost F! all!

Seems to me you are worried about losing more than making.

If your net worth is over a million, 1% in BTC is more than enough.  

[N12]

90% Cash (USD)
6% Gold
2% Short Stocks (S&P 500)
1% Bitcoin
0.8% Monero
0.2% DIEM (as a "playground play", no serious fundamentals behind)

If this is meant to be some form of investment strategy then i can't take you seriously. I will share 2 reasons. No doubt the forum will add a few more.

1.  90% investment in cash. Cash isn't an investment at less than 1% return so unless you think every other form of investment is about to devalue, by comparision, then its like putting it under your bed.

2 Having 1% only in bitcoin. What is the point? bitcoin is high risk with high potential return. 1% suggests you don't believe in Bitcoin so why bother as when it flies off to the moon you will enjoy unprecedented returns on almost F! all!

Seems to me you are worried about losing more than making.

1. That's exactly what he is postulating. Deflation.

2. Maybe he wants to preserve his capital more and tries to minimize risk by reducing exposure during certain periods. Comparatively, he certainly isn't that risk averse, given that he stated that he held almost 100% in BTC before. You know, trading?

[Arv1e]

If this is meant to be some form of investment strategy then i can't take you seriously. I will share 2 reasons. No doubt the forum will add a few more.

1.  90% investment in cash. Cash isn't an investment at less than 1% return so unless you think every other form of investment is about to devalue, by comparision, then its like putting it under your bed.

2 Having 1% only in bitcoin. What is the point? bitcoin is high risk with high potential return. 1% suggests you don't believe in Bitcoin so why bother as when it flies off to the moon you will enjoy unprecedented returns on almost F! all!

Seems to me you are worried about losing more than making.

If your net worth is over a million, 1% in BTC is more than enough.  

Monetising the portfolio is irrelavent. It's 1%. Also he is suggesting he had ALL his money in Bitcoin and managed to sell at EXACTLY the peak.

If I had sold like that, taking into account the current value I would have re invested more than 1% considering we are at cirace $475.

Seems to me it's all a lot of hot air to get people to buy into his website for advice u8nless he has a crystal ball and knows EXACTLY when the trough will botoom out of course!

[S3052]

If this is meant to be some form of investment strategy then i can't take you seriously. I will share 2 reasons. No doubt the forum will add a few more.

1.  90% investment in cash. Cash isn't an investment at less than 1% return so unless you think every other form of investment is about to devalue, by comparision, then its like putting it under your bed.

2 Having 1% only in bitcoin. What is the point? bitcoin is high risk with high potential return. 1% suggests you don't believe in Bitcoin so why bother as when it flies off to the moon you will enjoy unprecedented returns on almost F! all!

Seems to me you are worried about losing more than making.

If your net worth is over a million, 1% in BTC is more than enough.  

Monetising the portfolio is irrelavent. It's 1%. Also he is suggesting he had ALL his money in Bitcoin and managed to sell at EXACTLY the peak.

If I had sold like that, taking into account the current value I would have re invested more than 1% considering we are at cirace $475.

Seems to me it's all a lot of hot air to get people to buy into his website for advice u8nless he has a crystal ball and knows EXACTLY when the trough will botoom out of course!

agree with all of the above except the comment of "hot air".
The forecast service builds on in depth analysis and continuously outperforms buy and hold.

But this is not to advertise the forecasting service, it's about seriously protecting wealth in the next years.
Those who don't see the risk and those who dont want any forecast, do not need to follow or read this thread.

[KJO]

This is to share that I will publish my real asset allocation live here in a regular basis. I do this as it might be helpful to see for people who also agree that we are just before a major financial turbulence.


My hypotheses are:
1) Stocks will crash by 2016 and will mark new 15-20 year lows.
2) Precious metals will survive better but will also decline first before rallying strongly. It is key to own physical precious metal, not paper certificates.
3) The US Dollar will initially fare better against other currencies (particularly against the EUR), but then crash as well and may disappear in its current form by 2017-2018.
4) Overall asset prices and prices of goods will decline = we are in a unprecedented deflation.

You don't have to agree to this view. Most of these views are also similar to those offered on www.bullbearanalytics.com, but this specific thread is solely based on my personal point of view.


Assets September 14, 2014.

90% Cash (USD)
6% Gold
2% Short Stocks (S&P 500)
1% Bitcoin
0.8% Monero
0.2% DIEM (as a "playground play", no serious fundamentals behind)

I would increase the S&P short to 10% and switch physical gold to physical silver as it is more undervalued but that is just me.

Interesting strategy, I hope it works out for you but I am worried about you holding 90% fiat. Bail ins are right around the corner.

Good luck and thanks for sharing your viewpoint.

[Odalv]

agree with all of the above except the comment of "hot air".
The forecast service builds on in depth analysis and continuously outperforms buy and hold.

But this is not to advertise the forecasting service, it's about seriously protecting wealth in the next years.
Those who don't see the risk and those who dont want any forecast, do not need to follow or read this thread.

Unfortunately I am not rich...
We are talking a couple of thousands here

Believe me, if you invested at date you registered (2010-09-18) $100 USD and bought 1,600 BTC @ $0.06 then BUY AND HOLD you have more than a couple of thousands here