[ANN] Asset Allocation during Financial Crash. +20.9% Annualized Gains

[S3052]

I would consider this a fairly conservative defensive portfolio in anticipation of of a Financial Crash. The USD providing the bulk of the defensive position while the short (S&P 500) and Crypto-currencies XBT, XMR and DIEM providing the growth part to offset the 1-2% decline in the purchasing power of USD. 

There is one part that leaves me baffled.

The US Dollar will initially fare better against other currencies (particularly against the EUR), but then crash as well and may disappear in its current form by 2017-2018.

Given that this is over 85% of the portfolio what happens if this happens sooner? Presumably the XBT, XMR and DIEM will skyrocket to compensate for the loss in value of the USD. The short (S&P 500) position will become worthless or have negative values since it is in terms of USD. I know there are very few alternatives but, still it is very hard to have a 85% USD position if one believes the USD is in such deep trouble.

Good point on USD.

I foresee two strategies to manage a USD collapse (which I think won't happen before mid 2015), but even if here is what I'd do:

1) Move USD to CHF. CHF will most likely be the fiat currency to survive the longest. Since USD is liquid I can do this overnight.
2) Move part of it into phyisical gold stored as a safe location, e.g. via http://www.safewealthgroup.com/ (I have no affiliation with them, but think this is one of the few possibilities at hand)

[Odalv]

Update 5.
Assets September 21, 2014.

85.3% Cash (USD)
6% Gold
5% Short Stocks (S&P 500)
3.2% Bitcoin
0.3% Monero
0.2% DIEM (as a "playground play", no serious fundamentals behind)

Added leveraged bitcoin long position at 406 $.

You forgot to post how you closed your long position at $450 and go short.  (what means that in reality $392 has triggered your stop loss)

[S3052]

Update 5.
Assets September 21, 2014.

85.3% Cash (USD)
6% Gold
5% Short Stocks (S&P 500)
3.2% Bitcoin
0.3% Monero
0.2% DIEM (as a "playground play", no serious fundamentals behind)

Added leveraged bitcoin long position at 406 $.

You forgot to post how you closed your long position at $450 and go short.  (what means that in reality $392 has triggered your stop loss)

I did not forget. Just did not take the time to post it. Here the update. By the way, I did not take long position at 450 at all. Not sure why you believe this.

Recent developments
1. September 20: Exited BTC long position started at 390 at 418.35. Gained 28.35 $/BTC. Stop was not triggered as I proactively sold at 418.35 $ as communicated on Sep 20 in this very thread.
2. September 21: Started new long position at 404.8 $ (avg entry). Exited at 395.74 $. Loss 9 $ / BTC.
3. Maintain S&P 500 short position at 2012. Stop now 2010.
4. Maintain NDX short position at 4107: Stop now 4105.

Total Portfolio development
Significant gain over past 5 days, mainly behind stocks SHORT position

Total portfolio up +1.6% since inception on September 14, 2014.
* Investment of 10,000 USD would be up 160 USD.
* Investment of 1,000,000 USD be up 16,000 USD.

Current Asset Allocation September 26, 2014
88% Cash (USD)
6% Gold
5% Short Stocks (S&P 500, NDX, both 10x leveraged)
0.5% Bitcoin
0.3% Monero
0.2% DIEM (as a "playground play", no serious fundamentals behind)

[S3052]

Update 5.
Assets September 21, 2014.

85.3% Cash (USD)
6% Gold
5% Short Stocks (S&P 500)
3.2% Bitcoin
0.3% Monero
0.2% DIEM (as a "playground play", no serious fundamentals behind)

Added leveraged bitcoin long position at 406 $.

You forgot to post how you closed your long position at $450 and go short.  (what means that in reality $392 has triggered your stop loss)

I did not forget. Just did not take the time to post it. Here the update. By the way, I did not take long position at 450 at all. Not sure why you believe this.

Recent developments
1. September 20: Exited BTC long position started at 390 at 418.35. Gained 28.35 $/BTC. Stop was not triggered as I proactively sold at 418.35 $ as communicated on Sep 20 in this very thread.
2. September 21: Started new long position at 404.8 $ (avg entry). Exited at 395.74 $. Loss 9 $ / BTC.
3. Maintain S&P 500 short position at 2012. Stop now 2010.
4. Maintain NDX short position at 4107: Stop now 4105.

Total Portfolio development
Significant gain over past 5 days, mainly behind stocks SHORT position

Total portfolio up +1.6% since inception on September 14, 2014.
* Investment of 10,000 USD would be up 160 USD.
* Investment of 1,000,000 USD be up 16,000 USD.

Current Asset Allocation September 26, 2014
88% Cash (USD)
6% Gold
5% Short Stocks (S&P 500, NDX, both 10x leveraged)
0.5% Bitcoin
0.3% Monero
0.2% DIEM (as a "playground play", no serious fundamentals behind)

Starting to track annualized gains. I know it is early after 11 days, but annualized returns is the right benchmark and will get more stable over time.

Annualized gains: 53.1%

[McHaggis]

Not that I mind but aren't you effectively giving the top level of service from bullbearanalytics in here for free?

[macsga]

I may be wrong, but I believe he is somehow affiliated (owner? )

[S3052]

Not that I mind but aren't you effectively giving the top level of service from bullbearanalytics in here for free?

Yes, I am affiliated with http://bullbearanalytics.com/.
But http://bullbearanalytics.com/ offers more frequent and deeper forecasts, as well as specific trading ideas.
Further, I am posting this "live investing / trading" here for free on a temporary basis and we will see how it develops.

[S3052]

Total Portfolio development

Portfolio up +1.7% since inception on September 14, 2014.
* Investment of 10,000 USD would be up 170 USD.
* Investment of 1,000,000 USD be up 17,000 USD.

Current Asset Allocation September 28, 2014
88% Cash (USD)
6% Gold
5% Short Stocks (S&P 500, NDX, both 10x leveraged)
0.5% Bitcoin
0.3% Monero
0.2% DIEM (as a "playground play", no serious fundamentals behind)

[macsga]

Total Portfolio development

Portfolio up +1.7% since inception on September 14, 2014.
* Investment of 10,000 USD would be up 170 USD.
* Investment of 1,000,000 USD be up 17,000 USD.

Current Asset Allocation September 28, 2014
88% Cash (USD)
6% Gold
5% Short Stocks (S&P 500, NDX, both 10x leveraged)
0.5% Bitcoin
0.3% Monero
0.2% DIEM (as a "playground play", no serious fundamentals behind)

Thinking of playing around with DOGE for a bit. I have about 1M at the moment. I foresee 150 Satoshis coming mid-week. To be honest, I saw the current rally coming when they announced the Litecoin fork but didn't have the time/will to mess around with at the time. Also, did you gave up with XMR? It's a nice entry point IMHO.

Cheers

[S3052]

Total Portfolio development

Portfolio up +1.7% since inception on September 14, 2014.
* Investment of 10,000 USD would be up 170 USD.
* Investment of 1,000,000 USD be up 17,000 USD.

Current Asset Allocation September 28, 2014
88% Cash (USD)
6% Gold
5% Short Stocks (S&P 500, NDX, both 10x leveraged)
0.5% Bitcoin
0.3% Monero
0.2% DIEM (as a "playground play", no serious fundamentals behind)

Thinking of playing around with DOGE for a bit. I have about 1M at the moment. I foresee 150 Satoshis coming mid-week. To be honest, I saw the current rally coming when they announced the Litecoin fork but didn't have the time/will to mess around with at the time. Also, did you gave up with XMR? It's a nice entry point IMHO.

Cheers

Great questions.

About XMR = Monero: Still holding a small portion. Short term, I see a bull flag developing. As long as XMR remains above 0.00286, there is a bit more upside and I keep holding.

About DOGE: Could still be a good momentum play as long it remains above 86 Dogoshis :-).

Update: Went short -2.5% of portfolio on BTCUSD at 395.1 $.

[S3052]

Total Portfolio development

Update September 29, 2014. Consistently making profits.

Portfolio up +1.81% since inception on September 14, 2014.
* Investment of 10,000 USD would be up 181 USD.
* Investment of 1,000,000 USD be up 18,100 USD.

Current Asset Allocation September 28, 2014
88% Cash (USD)
6% Gold
5% Stocks SHORT (S&P 500, NDX, both 10x leveraged)
1.5% Bitcoin SHORT
0.3% Monero
0.2% DIEM (as a "playground play", no serious fundamentals behind)

[Odalv]

Total Portfolio development

Update September 29, 2014. Consistently making profits.

Portfolio up +1.81% since inception on September 14, 2014.
* Investment of 10,000 USD would be up 181 USD.
* Investment of 1,000,000 USD be up 18,100 USD.

Current Asset Allocation September 28, 2014
88% Cash (USD)
6% Gold
5% Stocks SHORT (S&P 500, NDX, both 10x leveraged)
1.5% Bitcoin SHORT
0.3% Monero
0.2% DIEM (as a "playground play", no serious fundamentals behind)

How do you feel shorting bitcoins at the bottom ?

[S3052]

Total Portfolio development

Update September 29, 2014. Consistently making profits.

Portfolio up +1.81% since inception on September 14, 2014.
* Investment of 10,000 USD would be up 181 USD.
* Investment of 1,000,000 USD be up 18,100 USD.

Current Asset Allocation September 28, 2014
88% Cash (USD)
6% Gold
5% Stocks SHORT (S&P 500, NDX, both 10x leveraged)
1.5% Bitcoin SHORT
0.3% Monero
0.2% DIEM (as a "playground play", no serious fundamentals behind)

How do you feel shorting bitcoins at the bottom ?

not sure I understand your question. The bitcoin SHORT was started at 398.76 $, is in the profit and now has a stop at 398.7 $ - this at the minimum will be closed neutral.
The stocks short position is getting even more into the money every day.

[S3052]

Total Portfolio development

Update October 2, 2014. Accelerating profit making.

Portfolio up +3.49% since inception on September 14, 2014.
* Investment of 10,000 USD would be up 349 USD.
* Investment of 1,000,000 USD be up 34,900 USD.

Current Asset Allocation
88% Cash (USD)
6% Gold
5% Stocks SHORT (S&P 500, NDX, both 10x leveraged, started at 2012 S&P 500, in profit, stop lowered to 1951)
1.5% Bitcoin SHORT (stop lowered now to 386.87, position in profit)
0.3% Monero
0.2% DIEM (as a "playground play", no serious fundamentals behind)

[macsga]

Total Portfolio development

Update October 2, 2014. Accelerating profit making.

Portfolio up +3.49% since inception on September 14, 2014.
* Investment of 10,000 USD would be up 349 USD.
* Investment of 1,000,000 USD be up 34,900 USD.

Current Asset Allocation
88% Cash (USD)
6% Gold
5% Stocks SHORT (S&P 500, NDX, both 10x leveraged, started at 2012 S&P 500, in profit, stop lowered to 1951)
1.5% Bitcoin SHORT (stop lowered now to 386.87, position in profit)
0.3% Monero
0.2% DIEM (as a "playground play", no serious fundamentals behind)

Not willing to interfere with your investment plan, but I wonder why didn't you invest in XMR a bit more. It seems it gains momentum at the moment. BTC, I'd give it a bit more time, but XMR will definitely will gain you some short profit...

[S3052]

Total Portfolio development

Update October 2, 2014. Accelerating profit making.

Portfolio up +3.49% since inception on September 14, 2014.
* Investment of 10,000 USD would be up 349 USD.
* Investment of 1,000,000 USD be up 34,900 USD.

Current Asset Allocation
88% Cash (USD)
6% Gold
5% Stocks SHORT (S&P 500, NDX, both 10x leveraged, started at 2012 S&P 500, in profit, stop lowered to 1951)
1.5% Bitcoin SHORT (stop lowered now to 386.87, position in profit)
0.3% Monero
0.2% DIEM (as a "playground play", no serious fundamentals behind)

Not willing to interfere with your investment plan, but I wonder why didn't you invest in XMR a bit more. It seems it gains momentum at the moment. BTC, I'd give it a bit more time, but XMR will definitely will gain you some short profit...

I am closely watching XMR. That said, there has been a clear downtrend since 4 weeks, and I want to see at least a short term impulsive wave = trend up before adding more.

[statdude]

Whats your analysis of reasons for XMR downtrend?

[S3052]

Whats your analysis of reasons for XMR downtrend?

1. Almost all financial assets are in a decline globally; stocks, metals, bitcoin, altcoins. We are currently in a "risk off" period and risky assets are most affected.
2. There is no big enough reason that XMR outperforms these other assets yet. XMR would need much more awareness and traction to make it outperform.

[S3052]

Update October 3, 2014.

Bitcoin (short position closed at 377 $. 22 $ gained per BTC). Added minor bitcoin long position

Current Asset Allocation
88% Cash (USD)
6% Gold
5% Stocks SHORT (S&P 500, NDX, both 10x leveraged, started at 2012 S&P 500, in profit, stop lowered to 1951)
0.5% Bitcoin
0.3% Monero
0.2% DIEM (as a "playground play", no serious fundamentals behind)

[darlidada]

update ?