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Author Topic: Within 2 years, effectively 85% of all bitcoins are mined!  (Read 4621 times)
bitebits
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September 14, 2014, 11:32:46 AM
Last edit: September 14, 2014, 12:56:47 PM by bitebits
 #1

In our current western economy, when there is plenty for everyone, few consider the real value of their money and material possessions. The same applies to the current bitcoin presumed dollar value. Daily supply (~3600 coins) is still high, and demand relatively low.

However, the above is about to reverse. Fresh supply is about to run out, the last 10% takes forever. This while the usability keeps on increasing at an amazing pace.

I think the near future 'limited new supply' vs 'high demand' is highly underestimated. Good times ahead!



source: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=130619.0


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September 14, 2014, 12:05:51 PM
 #2

I hope you are right because to me it all seems stale, news that would have boosted the price doesnt seem to affect it any more.  Undecided

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September 14, 2014, 12:13:57 PM
 #3

It's a shame, because now nobody will invest in any bitcoin-related ideas. Instead, they'll be laying as many people off and using as old equipment as possible because, y'know - deflation. We've had extreme "real" deflation over the past few years... that's probably why we're in a dry spell, now. Everyone must've been banking on bitcoin staying nominally inflationary forever so nobody could retire.

-Or something. I'm sure there's a legit counter-point somewhere.
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Bitcoin != exchange rate


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September 14, 2014, 01:00:13 PM
 #4

I hope you are right because to me it all seems stale, news that would have boosted the price doesnt seem to affect it any more.  Undecided

There is only a limited time frame left wherein the shortage of bitcoins can be denied.

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September 15, 2014, 12:08:47 AM
 #5

It's a shame, because now nobody will invest in any bitcoin-related ideas. Instead, they'll be laying as many people off and using as old equipment as possible because, y'know - deflation. We've had extreme "real" deflation over the past few years... that's probably why we're in a dry spell, now. Everyone must've been banking on bitcoin staying nominally inflationary forever so nobody could retire.

-Or something. I'm sure there's a legit counter-point somewhere.
I would disagree. The reason why we have had such a "deflationary" period is because people/investors had to "discover" bitcoin in order to invest and buy it. The inflation rate in terms of total of bitcoin available has been increasing at levels that would be generally be considered to be unhealthy under normal conditions.

The fact that a lower "true" inflation rate is occurring does not mean that "deflation" will occur (higher USD/BTC prices), but rather a more stable price. I would argue that a more stable price would give people less of an incentive to hoard their bitcoin and more of an incentive to engage in commerce in bitcoin, which would encourage more companies to invest in bitcoin related businesses and infrastructure. 

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September 15, 2014, 05:26:12 AM
 #6

I think this will likely result in a more stable price as there will be less of a supply of bitcoin that will generally be sold to cover mining costs. A more stable price will likely (IMO) result in a higher overall level of adoption.
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September 15, 2014, 06:00:24 AM
 #7

Either we go moon or we go the doge path.

Can't see other options after the halving
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September 15, 2014, 03:43:57 PM
 #8

You might want to fix your numbers. In 2 years, 75% of the bitcoins will be mined, not 85%. And the remaining 25% will take another century to mine. Meanwhile, the supply of bitcoins continues to grow, even if the "fresh" supply goes to 0.

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September 15, 2014, 05:46:31 PM
 #9

You might want to fix your numbers. In 2 years, 75% of the bitcoins will be mined, not 85%. And the remaining 25% will take another century to mine.

But the last 10% takes a loooooong time.
So effectively, after the halving there is only 100% - 10% - 75% = 15% left.

You confirm my thoughts that the near future 'limited new supply' vs 'high demand' is highly underestimated.

Meanwhile, the supply of bitcoins continues to grow, even if the "fresh" supply goes to 0.

This ofcourse would be really healthy, it is the redistribution of wealth. Only a few will sit on their stash no matter what, because there is no need to spend. Just like in the current economy.

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yes


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September 15, 2014, 05:55:31 PM
 #10

It basically underwrites the theory of Masterlucif that Bitcoin will go nowhere until the next block halving.

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September 15, 2014, 06:03:37 PM
 #11

You might want to fix your numbers. In 2 years, 75% of the bitcoins will be mined, not 85%. And the remaining 25% will take another century to mine. Meanwhile, the supply of bitcoins continues to grow, even if the "fresh" supply goes to 0.

But the last 10% takes a loooooong time.
So effectively, after the halving there is only 100% - 10% - 75% = 15% left.

But the last 1% takes almost as long as the last 10%. It will only take 20 years to get to the last 1%, but another 120 years to mine the rest. So, you could then say that there are "effectively" 24% left in 2 years.

You confirm my thoughts that the near future 'limited new supply' vs 'high demand' is highly underestimated.

My point was that comparing 'limited new supply' vs 'high demand' not as valid as comparing supply vs. demand or limited new supply vs limited high demand.

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September 16, 2014, 07:05:48 AM
 #12

Yes, miners right now have the price in their hands. When their pressure on the market will be lower, we should see the real effect of deflation.
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September 16, 2014, 08:40:02 AM
 #13

In our current western economy, when there is plenty for everyone, few consider the real value of their money and material possessions. The same applies to the current bitcoin presumed dollar value. Daily supply (~3600 coins) is still high, and demand relatively low.

However, the above is about to reverse. Fresh supply is about to run out, the last 10% takes forever. This while the usability keeps on increasing at an amazing pace.

I think the near future 'limited new supply' vs 'high demand' is highly underestimated. Good times ahead!



source: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=130619.0



i don't understand why there is an inflation rate when btc is a deflation coin..  Huh
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September 16, 2014, 10:20:25 AM
 #14

i don't understand why there is an inflation rate when btc is a deflation coin..  Huh

Because people who say it is deflationary mean it is after around the year 2140 but conveniently leave that out to try to confuse people - or are uninformed. 
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September 16, 2014, 10:25:03 AM
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i don't understand why there is an inflation rate when btc is a deflation coin..  Huh

Because people who say it is deflationary mean it is after around the year 2140 but conveniently leave that out to try to confuse people - or are uninformed. 

so, right now, btc have an inflation rate? where can i find info of its value?
bitebits
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September 16, 2014, 10:30:23 AM
 #16

i don't understand why there is an inflation rate when btc is a deflation coin..  Huh

Because people who say it is deflationary mean it is after around the year 2140 but conveniently leave that out to try to confuse people - or are uninformed.  

You are doing the same in an opposite matter. After 2020 there will just be some yearly Sathosi inflation dust left to mine till 2140. It again amplifies my feeling that the huge decreasing rate of inflation is highly underestimated.

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September 16, 2014, 01:26:25 PM
 #17

i don't understand why there is an inflation rate when btc is a deflation coin..  Huh

Because people who say it is deflationary mean it is after around the year 2140 but conveniently leave that out to try to confuse people - or are uninformed.  

Inflation means prices go up, or in other words the value of the currency becomes less...
An inflation rate as presented above only indicates that there will be more coins over time, new coins get created...
This does not necessarily mean that value of bitcoin becomes less over time...

On the contrary history has shown the opposite, bitcoins become worth more overtime, because of its initial low price and exponentially growing adoption rate and eco-system...
Price is determined by supply and demand...

Therefore; bitcoin is deflationary, although for the next 100 years there are still newly freshly minted coins...

Incorrect. Inflation in its economical strict sense does only mean that the amount of total monetary units is increased. This often leads to a loss of purchasing power of each monetary unit (prices of goods "go up" numerically), but it is not the same as inflation. So the observance of increasing prices is a possible effect of inflation.

Bitcoin is inflationary but has deflationary effects, because the demand for bitcoin exceeds the supply of new coins. So adoption and lost coins do not only compensate for possible inflationary effects (loss of purchasing power of each bitcoin) but lead to an increase in purchasing power of each bitcoin.
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September 16, 2014, 04:38:00 PM
 #18

Incorrect

Quote
Definition of 'Inflation'

The rate at which the general level of prices for goods and services is rising, and, subsequently, purchasing power is falling.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inflation
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/i/inflation.asp

I'm referring to what Wikipedia calls Monetary Inflation which is the original meaning of the term inflation (from the latin word "inflare"). This is in line with the Austrian School of Economics. I refuse to call price increases inflation, because this hides the cause (increase in monetary supply) of the effect (rising prices).
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September 16, 2014, 06:18:00 PM
 #19

This could very well end up being near the end of 2015.

Consider the blocks generated in the last 4 months: block 240,000 was generated on 6/6. The network has confirmed about 22,000 blocks in 4 months. The 2 months prior, and the 2 months prior to that, only 10,000 blocks were confirmed.

Operating at the pace that we have over the last two months, the projected date for the block halving would be Feb 27, 2016, which would be a good conservative guess.

But if the network confirms at the pace of the last 1000 blocks, the halving event would be on December 5, 2015.

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September 17, 2014, 03:56:35 AM
 #20

i don't understand why there is an inflation rate when btc is a deflation coin..  Huh

Because people who say it is deflationary mean it is after around the year 2140 but conveniently leave that out to try to confuse people - or are uninformed. 

Inflation means prices go up, or in other words the value of the currency becomes less...
An inflation rate as presented above only indicates that there will be more coins over time, new coins get created...
This does not necessarily mean that value of bitcoin becomes less over time...

On the contrary history has shown the opposite, bitcoins become worth more overtime, because of its initial low price and exponentially growing adoption rate and eco-system...
Price is determined by supply and demand...

Therefore; bitcoin is deflationary, although for the next 100 years there are still newly freshly minted coins...

Incorrect. Inflation in its economical strict sense does only mean that the amount of total monetary units is increased. This often leads to a loss of purchasing power of each monetary unit (prices of goods "go up" numerically), but it is not the same as inflation. So the observance of increasing prices is a possible effect of inflation.

Bitcoin is inflationary but has deflationary effects, because the demand for bitcoin exceeds the supply of new coins. So adoption and lost coins do not only compensate for possible inflationary effects (loss of purchasing power of each bitcoin) but lead to an increase in purchasing power of each bitcoin.
I think this depends on how you view "inflation", some people consider inflation to be when the prices of a basket of goods and services increases (this is generally how inflation is measured in the US and much of Europe).

In other places "inflation" is defined by the total money supply available in the economy.
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