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Author Topic: Paying all longs and btc deposits at bitcoinica!  (Read 3038 times)
bitcoinBull
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May 02, 2012, 07:57:29 AM
 #21

And now its more expensive to be short (-$0.14) than long (-$0.11)!

Like taking candy from a baby.. Cheesy

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naima53
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May 02, 2012, 08:11:52 AM
 #22

And now its more expensive to be short (-$0.14) than long (-$0.11)!

Like taking candy from a baby.. Cheesy
I am not so optimistic .. (waiting for the moment that would buy again)  Tongue Tongue

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dopamine
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May 02, 2012, 02:56:18 PM
 #23

Short Squeeze here we come... maybe they will cover above 5.50

Bitcoinica still has not given me 50% of my claim of 600 BTC
INTERSANGO can go down with bitcoinica for abandoning customers
Alberto Armandi is a SCAMMER
proudhon
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May 02, 2012, 03:05:04 PM
 #24

Short Squeeze here we come... maybe they will cover above 5.50

Why do you think a short squeeze is coming?  If anything, it's already come and gone.
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May 02, 2012, 03:23:41 PM
 #25

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Why do you think a short squeeze is coming?  If anything, it's already come and gone.
Because it cost more to short bitcoin right now, and cost less to go long. So if it cost more to short bitcoin then alot people are either short or have a highly leverage position or have no us dollars. The interest rate is there so they can have a equilibrium and have bitcoins and US dollars.

Bitcoinica still has not given me 50% of my claim of 600 BTC
INTERSANGO can go down with bitcoinica for abandoning customers
Alberto Armandi is a SCAMMER
proudhon
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May 02, 2012, 03:30:54 PM
 #26

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Why do you think a short squeeze is coming?  If anything, it's already come and gone.
Because it cost more to short bitcoin right now, and cost less to go long. So if it cost more to short bitcoin then alot people are either short or have a highly leverage position or have no us dollars. The interest rate is there so they can have a equilibrium and have bitcoins and US dollars.

So, the price goes up to $5.40ish, the costs of shorting/going long get flipped around, and the price comes back down to ~$5 after dipping below $5 again.
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May 02, 2012, 03:36:48 PM
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Why do you think a short squeeze is coming?  If anything, it's already come and gone.
Because it cost more to short bitcoin right now, and cost less to go long. So if it cost more to short bitcoin then alot people are either short or have a highly leverage position or have no us dollars. The interest rate is there so they can have a equilibrium and have bitcoins and US dollars.

So, the price goes up to $5.40ish, the costs of shorting/going long get flipped around, and the price comes back down to ~$5 after dipping below $5 again.

Depends you need to factor in mtgox sellers, are people willing to sell below 5 again and stay in oversold, short squeeze coming and new trading range.

Bitcoinica still has not given me 50% of my claim of 600 BTC
INTERSANGO can go down with bitcoinica for abandoning customers
Alberto Armandi is a SCAMMER
ineededausername
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May 02, 2012, 04:39:22 PM
 #28

There are many reasons why we're stuck in the 4.8-5.5 range right now.  Chief among them:

(1) Psychological S/R after oscillating for a long time
(2) Sheer number of bids/asks
(3) Moves seem to be manipulated; consequently, profit-taking happens right after we get to $5.5 or $4.8.

For a bullish breakout, we need someone to buy a large volume of coins right when the price gets close to the top end, before any asks can form.  This hasn't happened yet because it is a ridiculously stupid thing to buy at $5.5 due to the 3 factors above.

However, there is one account on gox that will be buying in such a situation, and that's Bitcoinica.  For the past three times we've moved up to $5.5, we haven't had a starfish on the sell side, so the short squeezes were a bit too weak... but this time, all conditions seem ripe for a breakout. 

If everything happens correctly, this is it.

(BFL)^2 < 0
bitcoinBull
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May 02, 2012, 06:04:03 PM
 #29

However, there is one account on gox that will be buying in such a situation, and that's Bitcoinica.  For the past three times we've moved up to $5.5, we haven't had a starfish on the sell side, so the short squeezes were a bit too weak... but this time, all conditions seem ripe for a breakout. 

I concur about the role bitcoinica plays. I think the stability is also due to an increasing number of passive market-makers (people with bots playing both sides of the order book) - accounting for the increased depth on the order book that others have mentioned. I bet some of these guys are experienced traders playing with pennies compared to the funds they use on wall street. A passive strategy is good for anyone with lots of skin in the game, because its less risky than outright buying a bunch of coin.

I think what we're seeing on MtGox is active traders on bitcoinica betting against passive market-makers. I wonder which side will come out ahead..  Cool

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May 07, 2012, 05:24:53 AM
 #30

It's back... not quite as strong as last time but still +$0.01 for longs, -$0.19 for shorts:
https://bitcoinica.com/pages/interest

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
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bitcoinBull
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May 07, 2012, 06:14:46 AM
 #31

It's back... not quite as strong as last time but still +$0.01 for longs, -$0.19 for shorts:
https://bitcoinica.com/pages/interest

That plus the * on sell means bitcoinica is already leveraged short. But the mini-wall was put up by a market-maker. Unless he removes that mini-wall or somebody sells into it, the bitcoinica shorts are about to take a loss.

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naima53
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May 07, 2012, 02:00:42 PM
 #32

It's back... not quite as strong as last time but still +$0.01 for longs, -$0.19 for shorts:
https://bitcoinica.com/pages/interest

That plus the * on sell means bitcoinica is already leveraged short. But the mini-wall was put up by a market-maker. Unless he removes that mini-wall or somebody sells into it, the bitcoinica shorts are about to take a loss.
I think bitсoiniсa will soon be forced to buy a BTС - that would hedge against a shortage of coins.

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mb300sd
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May 07, 2012, 06:02:44 PM
 #33

Get ready for it...


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proudhon
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May 08, 2012, 03:12:27 AM
 #34

Get ready for it...



Ready to sell again.  Hopefully I can get out in the $5.40s and buy more under $5 again.
bitcoinBull
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May 08, 2012, 04:45:59 AM
 #35

Get ready for it...



Ready to sell again.  Hopefully I can get out in the $5.40s and buy more under $5 again.

I got out at $5.10 this time, getting ready to go in at $4.90. then I'll get out $5.05 and go back in at $4.95.

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